I was on the Internet reading (another) article on why The Jay Leno show will blow up in NBC's face and found myself agreeing with many of the reasons, but one of the reasons had me shaking my head from side to side:
The creative community in the TV industry has no motivation to work with NBC. If you don't have a 10 p.m. slot where the material can be more mature and the storytelling more ambitious, why go there? Besides, if your pilot ends up at NBC, five slots are off the board already, making your chance of getting picked up slimmer. So why not try to sell to CBS or Fox or ABC or cable?
This sounds like one of those things that feels really, really good to say (especially if you're a creative type) but seems very unlikely to be true in the real world.
FOX doesn't even program the 10pm-11pm hour. I know Shawn Ryan who created The Shield and is now working on Lie To Me and has another project (Terriers) for FX, isn't happy with the Jay Leno thing, but FOX not programming the 10pm hour didn't stop him from accepting a paycheck.
And of the 15 hours a week FOX programs, typically 5-7 hours a week is unscripted and two hours of Sunday is an animation block.
And c'mon. Even before Leno was announced NBC was probably not at the top of anyone's list. Ratings erosion was already bad. I know if I had a show to sell, I would want ABC, CBS or FOX first, at least in terms of prospects for more exposure. The downside of those networks is the pressure to succeed fast is far greater, but the reward can be well worth the risk.
Ultimately though, networks pass on shows all the time, and there is not an unlimited supply of broadcast networks to buy them. As long as NBC is a buyer of shows, there will be sellers.
Cable networks? Name a cable network that programs more than 6 hours of original scripted drama a week at any given time? Even in the summer it's not like there are cable networks programming new scripted shows three hours a night, five nights a week. Or even two hours a night five nights a week. Or even two hours a night four nights a week.
There are a limited number of buyers, with money. That's motivation enough for the studios. Plus, the way all the union stuff is set up, you and everyone involved with your show usually winds up getting paid more if your show is picked up by a broadcast network.
Even with Leno, NBC will order more scripted series than say, Showtime or HBO or any cable network. So I can't see the creative community excluding them because of Leno. I can see people saying they feel that way, but, I'm betting NBC winds up getting pitched a lot of shows just like it always has.
The same article also said:
He'll get beaten by scripted programming, and advertisers will pay his rival networks more for their dramas than they will for Leno's talk show. That cuts in to the cost savings.
That I agree with, but NBC was used to being beaten by the other networks at 10pm with the exception of Law & Order: SVU Monday's through Thursdays and was used to making less revenue. That doesn't cut into cost savings, though it does potentially cut into profitability. Details, sadly, that we'll never ever see.
Reading between the lines of what Zucker has said, it reads to me something like "If we wind up averaging even as low as a 1.3 rating, we'll still be happy with the money we're making on the show". So minus any financial data I will view Leno's ratings performance as follows:
- Adults 18-49 greater than or equal to 1.5 = Happy NBC
- Adults 18-49 1.3-1.5 = gray area
- Adults 18-49 less than 1.3 = Unhappy NBC
Time will tell. Does seem to be underutilizing the real estate even if the cost of construction is less.
And let us not forget that the shows that end up in the last hour of prime time are the ones that their networks barely feel should be carried. All broadcast AND cable networks run their best shows during the first hour of prime time. What all of them hope is these shows will be great lead-ins for the second hour and then the second hour being a hopefully good lead-in for the third.
The statements that edgier shows are run during the last hour is true but not for the reason that they can do that then. It is because that’s what the networks feel it will take to get the audience to tune in then.
And if Leno succeeds in his time slot, how long do you think it will be before the other networks follow suit? If he’s a rating smash, we could see the other networks copying NBC quickly. If Leno isn’t a rating smash but very profitable, the other networks might still follow suit. It could only be a matter of time before we see Letterman go head-to-head with Leno once again.
Scott, I’m not sure if you mean critically best when you write “All broadcast AND cable networks run their best shows during the first hour of prime time”, but 9pm Eastern is the hour that broadcasters slot their top ratings shows.
As to Leno success = other networks copying, we have an item on the site from quite some time ago about ABC already considering a similar 5 day 10pm strip with Nightline. That makes sense to me, it’s not like ABC is burning up the ratings at 10pm any weeknight either. CBS, they’ll hold out as long as possible.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if ABC stripped their 10pm as early as the 2010-11 season.
CBS could do it with Letterman I guess, though of course they’ll be reluctant to do that. CBS actually has enough hits and solid performers to fill out a three-hour primetime schedule, that’s the thing. None of the others do.
And we can all bemoan the slow death of broadcast TV this way, but cable’s growth seems to line up with broadcast’s sinking, so there’s still plenty to watch out there. It’s just a little more spread around, that’s all.
I tend to agree with Robert in that I find the idea of the ‘creative community’ turning their backs on NBC because of Leno to be a fairly ridiculous notion. In theory at least Leno being stripped across the week frees up more cash to invest in the rest of the prime time line-up and if we assume Leno’s a relative success in the slot then the ‘creative community’ probably won’t moan when NBC is able to do use the Leno profits to keep struggling shows on the air and let them grow.
More over if the ‘timeslot share’ and seasonal programming idea really kicks in at NBC and they run with the ball on that then once again in theory NBC isn’t really losing any programming ground and might actually be increasing their original content output. Just looking at the NBC line-up for this season all told they have 11 and a half hours of original scripted content via the ‘timeslot share’ that’s half an hour down on the 12 hours Fox (who share the same 2-hour’s that NBC had to work with this year) have filled with original scripted content. Plus if NBC is serious about programming the Summer as well that’s even more hours to fill.
People are building up the Leno doom and gloom and I’m not sure it really has that much grounding but then I still thinking effectively removing the 10PM hour temporarily is something NBC needed to do at this point. There’s no way on earth they’ll be able to fix all three hours of prime time at once so let them work on rebuilding the first two hours and hopefully build up a strong slate of shows to lead into the 10PM hour further down the line. Leno’s a good stopgap filler whilst NBC rebuilds and should turn a profit for them, which can’t in the grand scheme of things be a bad thing. The problems might come if that 10PM hour is then completely locked out for the rest of time.
All the whining can only mean one thing: Leno scares them to death! *g*
San Tzu says, iirc: “The army of many faces is weaker, than the army united behind one face”, – that’s the case here.
although it would seem that anyone with an hour long series idea would be better off if the suits at NBC decide it worthy of shifting over to USA network.
These people sound like a bunch of whiny school girls. Why don’t they just take Jeff Zucker out on to the play ground and beat him up? LOL! As Dr. Phil would say: “Get real!” Maybe if they brought the network suits some cost effective and creative ideas there would be more success and time periods available.
The problem is, all of the producers and stars want way too much money up front and with all of the deficit financing that networks have to do it/until a show produces 100 episodes for syndication, it has become too much a gamble.
The real issue is no one wants to take a pay cut, including Jeff Zucker and who ultimately pays for it? The viewer.
I seem to remember when the “creative community” was furious at the boradcast networks for programming unscripted during prime time. There was talk then of boycotting CBS for running Survivor in the Thursday night 8:00 PM slot. That didn’t fly then and certainly won’t now. A good lead-in to a scripted show is still desirable by all parties concerned. I’m sure the producers of CSI have been more than happy with Survivor at 8:00 PM for the last seven or eight years.
The Leno situation is certainly different, but producers of scripted shows will figure out a way to make money in the changed environment. Look for more Aussies and Brits who can speak with an American accent!
My goodness, leave NBC and Jay Leno alone. I come to this site everyday or so to just check ratings and TV news and I’ve honestly discovered that this website has turned into almost nothing but an NBC/Jay Leno bashing website. If the network and/or his show succeeds, then it does. If it fails, then it fails. Who really cares? All of you act as if you actually know something about how a network operates. If you did, don’t you think you would have a job there? Just saying ….
We get excited and are fascinated by the 3D-chess game that is TV programming. The Jay Leno show is a new, exciting and controversial move in the “game”. The passions which flare up are just like those any sports fan who criticizes the team’s owner, coaching, etc.
The creative community can huff and puff and make themselves self-important, but at the end of the day movies and TV shows and albums have to be promoted. Leno’s show is a promotional tool, and they’re not going to cut off their nose to spite their face.
ABC wouldn’t need to strip Nightline at 10, as they have the Primetime and 20/20 brands available to strip now.
And NBC, if they had to, could easily go three nights with Leno, and fill out 10 o’clock with already available Dateline. Or they could add some SNL specials at 10 o’clock also – maybe run a full SNL at 10 o’clock Saturdays, instead of 11:35? (What ratings does SNL get at 11:35?)
CBS? They have the 60 Minutes and 48 Hours brands ready to go – probably they won’t use 60 Minutes for a 10 o’clock strip – and could do Letterman or Ferguson if needed.
The CW – they could strip Billy Mays and Ron Popeil – wait a minute, they could use that at 8 or 9 o’clock
Theoacme, you are correct, ABC likely would use a Primetime or 20/20 brand name.
There are several problems with the “run Leno 3 nights a week” idea.
On the cost side, once you’ve got Leno as a regular show, my guess is that cutting it from 5 days to 3 doesn’t save you that much money, certainly not the 40% implied by the time cut.
On the revenue side, if 5 days of Leno a week aren’t bringing in enough revenue to justify the show, I don’t see how dropping to 3 days a week improves the situation. If after a time it doesn’t make revenue sense, why wouldn’t they just go to zero days a week?
On the cost side, once you’ve got Leno as a regular show, my guess is that cutting it from 5 days to 3 doesn’t save you that much money, certainly not the 40% implied by the time cut.
Unless they can get Leno to agree to a 40% pay cut, which I don’t see happening.
Bill in regards to cutting Leno down from 5 to 3 shows isn’t completely at odds with the maximum revenue drive.
In theory if Leno were to perform strongly on Monday, Wednesday and Friday but turn in weak performances on Tuesday and Thursday then eliminating the two weaker nights would drive up the shows average and theoretically make it a more attractive sell to advertisers and the like. And whilst NBC would likely still end up paying Leno the same bottom line money would be saved by producing two fewer shows, which could make the venture more profitable especially if NBC have something else to plug into the Tuesday and Thursday slots that may perform better.
From the point of view of an observer Leno in prime time is incredibly interesting just because there’s so many variables and possibilities that go hand in hand with it.
Alex, I don’t see that sort of scenario happening. I don’t think ratings for a show like Leno depend on the day of the week. The most important variable seems to be the guests.
I forgot about that detail, Bill, worrying merely about the ratings (since I don’t know how desperate NBC’s legal counsel was to keep Leno – were they desperate enough to not work in some protection for the network into the contract?)
If Leno’s ratings do not hold, he might take a 25 to 30 percent cut…
…or he might try to get a boatload of money from ABC…
…or he could go back on tour for his walking around money, in semi-retirement…
…no matter what happens, he won’t lose…but NBC could lose plenty here…
…and if Leno is past it, ABC could lose plenty as well, if they are really desperate.
…or he might try to get a boatload of money from ABC…
This is the least likely of those scenarios. Once Leno is no longer king of late night or talk shows, he is no longer attractive to ABC.