Very little has changed on Sunday nights this fall in the broadcast network lineups, the only new additions being CBS' Three Rivers and Fox's The Cleveland Show, and because of that I'd expect this fall's ratings to look a lot like last fall's.
There is one major change for the CW in that it will no longer be programming Sunday nights on a network basis after September 27, but that will likely have little effect on the rest of the broadcast competition. The CW hasn't put anything even marginally successful on Sunday nights for several years.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Sunday night look ahead for the 2009-10 season, check out Friday's, Thursday's, Wednesday's and Tuesday's. For those fans of ABC College Football and Fox's Cops and America's Most Wanted, no, there won't be a Saturday preview.
7:00
America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC), 2.2 18-49 demo rating
60 Minutes (CBS), 2.7 18-49 demo rating
The OT (Fox), 4.4 18-49 demo rating
Football Night In America (NBC), 4.2 demo rating (7-8:30pm)
8:00
Extreme Makeover Home Edition (ABC), 3.3 18-49 demo rating
The Amazing Race (CBS), 3.2 18-49 demo rating
The Simpsons (Fox), 3.1 demo rating
8:30
The Cleveland Show (Fox), New
Sunday Night Football (NBC), 6.5 demo rating (8:30-11pm)
9:00
Desperate Housewives (ABC), 5.2 demo rating
Three Rivers (CBS) New
Family Guy (Fox), 3.5 demo rating
9:30
American Dad (Fox), 2.7 demo rating
10:00
Brothers & Sisters (ABC), 3.4 demo rating
Cold Case (CBS), 2.6 demo rating
My Guess
Football makes this by far NBC's strongest night of the season, and, like always, they should be the overall adults 18-49 winners. Again, as before, I'd expect ABC's line up to win with women 18-49, and Fox's line up to be competitive in adults 18-49 and particularly strong in the adults 18-34 demo ratings. This is CBS' relatively weakest lineup of the week, but every other Sunday in the fall when they get the late afternoon NFL national game a football overrun into primetime can always boost them into second place for the night. Their Sunday NFL motto might as well be "Play for overtime!".
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
This is pretty much a stable night so I won’t make predictions over all anymore. The Cleveland Show might get a 2.9 demo (9 million viewers) and Three Rivers my guess is 2.5. (10 million viewers).
Wow, I did not realize Desperate Housewives was still doing this well on the demo. Brothers and Sisters is a solid performer. I wonder if ABC will ever risk schedule Brothers and Sisters on another night, just to check if it could stand on its own (let’s say if The Forgotten or Eastwicks bombs hard, could they place Brothers and Sisters there)
I hope The Amazing Race will consistently perform well. I really wonder why the show is not as big as the other CBS shows.
I will miss the CW here. I was hoping that they would find something here that would work. Only 7th Heaven and Reba did good on that schedule. I was thinking before that if they didn’t dropped Smackdown, they could also schedule the show on Sunday.
I have a feeling that this will probably be Cold Case’s final season as the Sunday 10pm slot has been the kiss of death to past shows. Three Rivers is an odd one but I don’t have high hope for it due to competition from football and Desperate Housewives.
Isn’t it funny that three quarters of the Animation is Seth MacFarlane shows.
After predicting a CBA win for every other night so far, I’m definitely changing my tune on Sundays. NBC will win the night with football unless it’s a particularly bad match-up with ABC taking second. Fox will be competitive in the demos. Aside from football overrun, CBS will come in last.
Aside from football:
7:00–Looks like The OT takes this hour. 60 Minutes will perform above it gets a football lead-in, easily beating AFV. If football ends early, the two are close.
8:00–Close, but EMHE wins the hour, AR and Fox animation close in the demo with AR winning viewers.
9:00–Easy win for DH. Animation second. Three Rivers will bomb.
10:00–Another win for ABC. CBS gets an “also ran” for Cold Case.
Of course, when there is football overrun on CBS, their whole night goes better. 60 Minutes, Race and 3Rivers will see a boost (progressively smaller for each show). Cold Case will get hit a little if it runs to late.
i don’t think the cleveland show will do too well
Has Sundays always been CBS’ weakest night or have they have success here, they have Monday-Fridays sorted with only one or two holes but Sundays alway seem to be a struggle.
To me, ABC will win the night like always. Not counting stupid football. Dont understand why NBC would do football on a Sunday night but the network is just stupid.
Jon, all networks have nights that they dont do good in.
Sunday is usually CBS’s worst night.
Tuesday and Wednesday are bad nights for ABC.
Friday is a bad night for FOX.
Monday is a bad night for NBC.
Usually on Thursdays, all networks do good.
rob, Why would it be stupid for NBC to air something that will almost invariably win the night, be by far their strongest night, and bring in millions of advertising dollars? In addition, that gives them a great platform to advertise their shows to people who wouldn’t be watching NBC otherwise.
If CBS is putting Three Rivers against Desperate Housewives, they must have even less faith in the show than I thought.
CBS was very successful on Sundays about quite a few years ago (maybe the 1998/99 season) when Touched By An Angel and the Movie were averaging 28 million viewers for a while. Cold Case was around 17 million for a season or two, but it’s been the law of diminishing returns since then.
As for ABC, their line-up was really hurting late last season. They really need a back-up for EM:HE. I know that it’s not a huge priority given the other nights, but it was below a 3 demo for most of the last part of last season, swiping DH’s numbers in the process. And yes, ABC needs to move B&S to launch a new show in what is still on of its best timeslots. With DH in season 6 and definitely on its downside, ABC needs to prep a new tent pole for the night.
Doug, good memory. On an average viewership basis in 98/99 both Touched by an Angel and the CBS Sunday Movie were top 10 shows. That season Touched averaged 19.5 million viewers, and the Sunday Movie averaged 17.36 million.
Saw a couple of complete scenes of Desperate Housewives that were very sharp and funny rather like in season 1. Of course, ABC is going to put its best foot forward, but these scenes are far cries from previewed scenes in seasons past. If they keep this sharpness througout the season, DH may be able to bring back a few viewers. Three Rivers looks to have a limited premise and previews on CBS.com do not show complete scenes. Hard to gage how compelling the show may be. If Three Rivers has a voice that resonates, it may give Wisteria Lane a speed bump.
Sunday should have about the same numbers per network as last season. But 9:00 could become interesting.
I take it that was the last Defying Gravity. It even felt like a finale, just eight episodes in.
Chad, I’m pretty sure 13 episodes were made. Whether the other 5 will ever air on the networks is another story. If they don’t wind up getting burned off on Saturday night during the Christmas holidays, I’m sure they will wind up online.
Why on Earth do you cancel The Unit to replace it with Three Rivers? No one is going to watch that. What a waste?
I understand The Unit wasn’t GREAT from a business standpoint but to create and need to market a new show that no one is going to watch is a total and complete WASTE. It makes even less business sense given the startup cost.
I’m really not feeling the Cleaveland Show
I’d rather have him on Family Guy!!
Do the demo results include reruns? It seems to me like especially the Fox Animation has pretty low numbers.
I can’t believe FOX cancelled King of the Hill for the Cleveland Show, that’s pretty lame.
Dennis, the adults 18-49 ratings listed for each show do include in slot repeats. That definitely reduces the averages of some shows more than others. Ex. Sunday Night Football had no repeats.
A story in the LA Times a few months ago talked about why the show was in danger of getting the axe, the was before it actually got it. It said the average age watching The Unit was 55 years old and that’s a big no no for advertisers. Plus, it was produced by a different studio (20th Cent Fox) and probably had a higher licensing fee.
I can understand why CBS greenlighted 3 Rivers. Alex O’Loughlin is a young handsome actor who probably has quite a few young female fans, especially from his short stint on Moonlight. Also, the show mostly takes place on a studio sound stage, which is probably much cheaper than big action scenes and special effects that the Unit required. And finally it’s a CBS/Paramount show.