I don’t know what it’s status is in Canada, but according to what I have read from Nina Tassler they aren’t investing in anymore episodes.

Jon- If Flashpoint temporarily replaces Three Rivers, CBS would then likely premiere either The Bridge or Miami Trauma sundays at 10 beginning January. I’ll also bet that like last year’s Eleventh Hour, The Good Wife will get additional episodes (around 18) and then after those episodes air the series could be replaced around March with either The Bridge or Miami Trauma.

The sunday schedule could look like this by February

8:00 The Amazing Race
9:00 Cold Case
10:00 Miami Trauma or The Bridge

and tuesdays could be like this by March

8:00 NCIS
9:00 NCIS: LA
10:00 Miami Trauma or The Bridge

So Cal – If FOX was desperate for dramas, they probably could have picked up The Unit (which is going into syndication anyway) However FOX has done pretty well for themselves drama wise last season so why would they need to add another drama.

The only thing I know for sure is that this is likely the final season for Cold Case and Three Rivers will only bring the series down. What CBS may end up doing is if they axe Three Rivers after a few airings they should move Cold Case back to 9 to compete with Housewives/Family Guy/American Dad/Football. They could then add Flashpoint back to 10pm to air the remaining 9 episodes until a permanent replacement is found. Here’s what could happen

7:00 60 Minutes
8:00 Amazing Race
9:00 Cold Case
10:00 Flashpoint

Or is it better to be able to pull 30 min (or 60 min) out of your schedule and keep the 10pm show airing on schedule?

I know we have some commenters on the site with more knowledge about this that I have. I’d love to hear from you.

I’m not sure what would work for CBS on Sundays, I think comedy would work and with overrun, you could easily drop one show and have the rest of the lineup intact.

7:00
NBC
FOX The OT: 13 million
CBS 60 Minutes: 10 million
ABC AFHV: 8 million

With football, NBC and FOX will win 7, with CBS coming in third and ABC coming in fourth.

8:00
NBC Football 19-25 million
CBS Amazing Race 10-12 million
ABC Extreme Makeover Home Edition 8-10 million
FOX The Simpsons/The Cleveland Show 8-9 million

At 8 Football will easily win for NBC followed by Amazing race and Extreme Makeover likely tying and then iN Fourth a combo of The Simpsons and The Cleveland Show should do fine with around 8-9 million.

9:00
NBC Football 20 million
ABC Desperate Housewives
FOX Family Guy/American Dad 7-9 million
CBS Three Rivers 7-10 million

This is where CBS could get a drop, Football will get first and Housewives second, but newcomer Three Rivers is expected to drop from its Race, lead in. How much will it drop , who knows but it could benefit the animated Family Guy/American Dad combo.

10:00
ABC Brothers & Sisters 10-13 million
CBS Cold Case 9-11 million

10pm is about retention and Brothers & Sisters as a much better chance of retaining a good amount of Housewives like it always has. With Three Rivers likely to bomb, it will probably bring down Cold Case too.

Bottom line: NBC will easily win sunday night with football by a lot. ABC’s 9-11 drama combination will likely beat out CBS’s drama combo probably because of CBS’s weak point Three Rivers. FOX will still hold the night up with it’s animation line up though with around 7-10 million. With the CW gone, The Big 4 networks will be competing a lot sundays.

ABC and NBC have the same line up as last fall. FOX’s one change is replacing King of the Hill with The Cleveland Show, which is likely to be a success (and hopefully bring some freshness to the night). CBS’s only change is moving Cold Case to 10 and adding new drama Three Rivers to 9. Three Rivers will likely be axed after 4 airings and CBS will probably move Cold Case back to 9. Cold Case is highly likely to end in May.

Robert and I only recently started seeing demo rankings/breakdowns for cable shows, and MacFarlane’s Family Guy is roughly as dominant among adult demos as Spongebob is among kids/avg. viewers. In the latest week we have data for, Family Guy had 15 of the top 50 18-49 rated shows, and 16 of the top 50 18-34 rated shows.

…plus it’s a reality show, with products provided free or at reduced cost by many manufacturers, so the cost factor is rather low for the demos that it does get…

…plus it’s a “feel-good” reality show that actually does something positive…

…and given the chatter I’ve heard about Desperate Housevives not being as good as seasons’ past, I’d split the problem of DH’s falling ratings 70/30, 70 percent on DH’s writers, 30 percent on EH becoming a bit boring.

And at least ABC isn’t doing a Leno at that hour, with AFV and EH:ME at least an attempt to program. And with Sunday Night Football on NBC, if ABC can get similar demos to last season from AFV and EM:HE, they would be really happy, given their dollar to demo value would be rather good…

…better than SNF, but NBC has to pay that premium in order to have any chance to add audience to its other nights.

With the deal Seth made with FOX, I wouldn’t be surprised if Seth took over 8-10p in a few years when Simpsons rides into the sunset.

Cold Case: I too think this will decay leading to the cancellation come May. Of course, how much will be lead-in failure…

Three Rivers: Speaking of which, I don’t see this show going anywhere. Question being whether CBS immediately yanks it (see The Ex-List) or lets it stumble for a while (see Eleventh Hour). Given the apparent positive prognosis on The Good Wife, CBS has a lot of replacements in the wings (Miami Trauma, the Canadian shows), so it will be interesting to see just how much slack CBS cuts TR. I think the show will do 2.5 – 2.8ish and run through nearly the whole 13-episode order.

The Cleveland Show: I see this doing 90% of Family Guy’s numbers initially (3.0 – 3.2ish) before dropping to American Dad levels. Speaking of which, I could see AD ratings drop a tick or three, whether because of age or simple MacFarlane overload. Interesting to see whether Fox sticks with 1.5 hours of Seth again next season.

I can understand why CBS greenlighted 3 Rivers. Alex O’Loughlin is a young handsome actor who probably has quite a few young female fans, especially from his short stint on Moonlight. Also, the show mostly takes place on a studio sound stage, which is probably much cheaper than big action scenes and special effects that the Unit required. And finally it’s a CBS/Paramount show.

I understand The Unit wasn’t GREAT from a business standpoint but to create and need to market a new show that no one is going to watch is a total and complete WASTE. It makes even less business sense given the startup cost.

As for ABC, their line-up was really hurting late last season. They really need a back-up for EM:HE. I know that it’s not a huge priority given the other nights, but it was below a 3 demo for most of the last part of last season, swiping DH’s numbers in the process. And yes, ABC needs to move B&S to launch a new show in what is still on of its best timeslots. With DH in season 6 and definitely on its downside, ABC needs to prep a new tent pole for the night.

Sunday is usually CBS’s worst night.
Tuesday and Wednesday are bad nights for ABC.
Friday is a bad night for FOX.
Monday is a bad night for NBC.

Usually on Thursdays, all networks do good.

Aside from football:

7:00–Looks like The OT takes this hour. 60 Minutes will perform above it gets a football lead-in, easily beating AFV. If football ends early, the two are close.

8:00–Close, but EMHE wins the hour, AR and Fox animation close in the demo with AR winning viewers.

9:00–Easy win for DH. Animation second. Three Rivers will bomb.

10:00–Another win for ABC. CBS gets an “also ran” for Cold Case.

Of course, when there is football overrun on CBS, their whole night goes better. 60 Minutes, Race and 3Rivers will see a boost (progressively smaller for each show). Cold Case will get hit a little if it runs to late.

Isn’t it funny that three quarters of the Animation is Seth MacFarlane shows.