Last fall, Monday night started as one of the most competitive nights on broadcast television, and it looks to be again between CBS, Fox and ABC. NBC's down for the count.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Monday night look ahead for the 2009-10 season, check out Sunday's, Friday's, Thursday's, Wednesday's and Tuesday's. For those fans of ABC College Football and Fox's Cops and America's Most Wanted, no, there won't be a Saturday preview.
8:00
Dancing with the Stars (ABC), 4.6 18-49 demo rating (8-10p)
How I Met Your Mother (CBS), 3.6 demo rating
House (Fox), 4.7 demo rating
Heroes (NBC), 3.6 demo rating
One Tree Hill (CW), 1.1 demo rating
8:30
Accidentally On Purpose (CBS), New
9:00
Two and a Half Men (CBS) 4.7 demo rating
Lie To Me (Fox), 3.4 demo rating
Trauma (NBC), New
Gossip Girl (CW), 1.1 demo rating
9:30
Big Bang Theory (CBS), 3.5 demo rating
10:00
Castle (ABC), 2.4 demo rating
CSI Miami (CBS), 3.7 demo rating
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
I think just above an overall 4.0 adults 18-49 demo wins the night in the fall.
CBS and Fox look to be neck and neck at the top. The difference hinges on how well Lie To Me holds up at 9pm. It's half of Fox's average for the night. CBS' only newcomer Accidentally on Purpose accounts for only 1/6 of CBS' average for the night. It would really have to go really big or crash to have a major impact. ABC looks to be a close third. Anything more than a 3.0 demo rating average from Castle and ABC may be contending.
NBC's looking at a distant fourth. Heroes slid during all of last season and looks unlikely to reach back to its average from last year. Launching Trauma after it will be very difficult, and The Jay Leno show will dampen the averages. With just timeslot rearrangement of One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl, the CW looks to get about the results they had last season.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
Can’t wait for Leno ratings!!
I think CBS will narrowly defeat Fox. I don’t see ABC being near at all. Other than Nathan Fillion, Castle doesn’t have much appeal in competition with CSI: Miami.
Can’t wait for the 2 hour House next Monday at 8pm, and CSI: Miamim at 10pm!
One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl will probably get between 2.5 and 3.2M viewers for their premieres.
I think when House has it’s big 2-hour premiere next week, it will probably pull in betweeen 12-14M and get around a 3.0 in the 18-49 demographic.
Heroes 2 hour premiere I’m afraid will probably do no better than 7-8M, but do okay in the 18-49 demo.
Awesome choice for the lead photo Mr. Gorman
My predictions:
8pm
DWTS – 18 million (4.5 demo)
House – 15 million (4.6 demo)
How I Met Your Mother – 9 million (3.4 demo)
Accidentally on Purpose – 7 million (2.8 demo)
Heroes – 8 million (3.5 demo)
One Tree Hill – 2.5 million (1.2 demo)
9pm
Two and Half Men – 15 million (4.7 demo)
The Big Bang Theory – 12 million (4.5 demo)
Lie to Me – 10 million (3.2 demo)
Trauma – 6 million (2.0 demo)
Gossip Girl – 2.6 milllion (1.2 demo)
10pm
CSI Miami – 15 million (3.7 demo)
Castle – 10 million (2.5 demo)
Jay Leno – 5 million (1.8 demo)
I think 15M for House and CSI: Miami is being a little generous. Both shows averaged around 12M last season. CSI: Miami is not the powerhouse it once was on Monday’s at 10pm.
Yeah probably I’m overestimating House too much but for CSI: Miami I think it is still possible because I believe The Big Bang Theory is a better lead in and it has lesser competition now because Medium is gone and unless Castle and Leno will pull big viewers, CSI: Miami might still reach 15 million again. And CSI: Miami actually averaged 14 million viewers last season according to this http://www.abcmedianet.com/web/dnr/dispDNR.aspx?id=052709_07 so I guess 15 million viewers is still attainable.
10 o’clock is boring all around, in terms of quality. In EW’s recommendation of what to watch each night, the only broadcast show they recommend watching live at that hour is Good Wife.
Gossip Girl was great in 2008; there hasn’t been a good episode this year. I started to just skip the scenes with characters I don’t care about, which at least makes it more enjoyable. I hope it recovers in terms of quality…and in ratings as a result.
Where is my precious CHUCK!?!?!?!
Here’s a question- who thinks this will be Heroes’ last season?
I see Big Bang flirting with 4.0 ratings, now that it follows Two and a Half and isn’t opposite House.
Where did Heroes bottom out at last year? Sub 3.0? I see no reason why their average shouldn’t at or below that, with the earlier timeslot and additional hatred by viewers. Trauma will be lucky to get 3.0 – neither will be seen after February.
I see Castle hovering in the 2.6 – 2.8 range. Bad enough that ABC will want to cancel it, but good enough that there’s no guarantee a midseason replacement would do any better – the worst of all programming worlds.
I don’t understand the hatred of Heroes. the quality has been the same the entire time for me.
Maybe they should add a vampire.
I think the quality has declined significantly after the awesome first season.
I think this catering to 18-49 year olds by advertisers and networks is one of the reasons why television has deteriorated over the past decade or so. If you’re over 49 you might as well die. So my usefulness to the networks and their advertisers will end in five years. Actually my guess is that there true demo is 18-34 year old singles. It doesn’t matter if a show has a good overall rating if it doesn’t get those younger, hip viewers.
I expect having Big Bang Theory before CSI:Miami will help CSI:Miami which was hurt by a weak lead in Worst Week, it has won its slot constitenly aside from The Bachelor finale and I believe it skews younger than CSI and CSI:NY, If CSI continues to decline then we may have a case where the sister show is outrating the parent show.
I think CBS’s big problem isn’t that Accidentally on Purpose is going to flop, but that HIMYM will drop. Last season the few times that CBS tested it at 8 pm the results were not so great. It also didn’t take off until it was moved to 8:30. TBBT will be a gain for CBS at 9:30, but I’m not sure if that will make up for losses at both 8 and 8:30. I see CBS down a bit and Fox barely eeking out a win for the night.
I see Big Bang flirting with 4.0 ratings, now that it follows Two and a Half and isn’t opposite House
It was “flirting” with 4.0 last year (and hit it several times). With the Men lead-in, it will be flirting with 5.0
I’m really worried for HIMYM starting the night. In late season 2 and early season 3 they were already on at 8pm and the ratings were low back then and there a lot of talk of possible cancellation and well they did the stunt casting with Britney Spears and moved back to 8:30pm so they became stable again. I hope HIMYM could survive going back at 8pm again
I think CBS could pull a win here if the 8:00 hour doesn’t drop too badly, but really, it’s anybody’s game (well, except NBC)
8:00–House will take the hour with Dancing a fairly close second. HIMYM will take a hit moving to 8 and Accidentally on Purpose won’t help the situation any. Third could go to CBS or Heroes. CBS could pull a win if AOP surprises or if the Heroes audience is actually fed up and leaves.
9:00–CBS will win the hour. BBT will do really well behind Men, making this hour stronger than it has been in a long time. Dancing will be second (though winning in viewers). Lie to Me and Trauma will compete for a distant third.
10:00–Another win for CBS. Castle will hold steady with reasonable but not great ratings.
Chuck, the targeting of adults 18-49 has been going on a lot longer than the past decade. Try at least the last 30 years, if not longer.