CSM – CBS will win likely every night with total viewers, But between FOX and ABC theres Dancing on Monday to Wednesday so both will get a good chunk of viewers. FOX will likely get second overall (Mon-Wed) third or fourth (Thurs) and last fridays. ABC will get second Sun-Tues with Dancing, fourth Wed with its low rated comedies, second on thursdays, and likely third fridays. NBC is likely to do OK-Not so great. Sundays football will easily win, Mondays they may get fourth with its sinking Heroes (probly bringing down Trauma), The Biggest Loser though may come in last should hold up well between ABC & FOX’s Dancing and CBS’s NCIS, Mercy may do OK at 8, but SVU will definitely help NBC get second at 9. NBC’s comedies could either get third or fourth depending on how FOX does. I predict Bones will get second or third on Thursday, (possibly Flashforward getting third) and NBC’s comedies would get fourth but at 9 I could see The Office possibly beating Fringe out for third.

Here’s a guess for every night, total viewer wise

Monday
1st ABC (would dominate)
2nd CBS (Would place third with HIMYM and Accidentally)
3rd FOX (Would place second with House at
4th NBC (Dramas would likely get crushed)

Individually ABC will get first from 8-FOX would place second 8, CBS would win 9
Tuesdays
1st CBS (NCIS’s would dominate)
2nd ABC (Dancing will do well at 9)
3rd FOX (would get a third against Dancing and NCIS)
4th NBC (Bigest Loser would get fourth but do moderately well)

Wednesdays
1st CBS (would lose to FOX at
2nd FOX (would beat CBS at 8 but get third at 9)
3rd NBC (would get second at 9)
4th ABC (comedies would get destroyed)

Thursdays
1st CBS (would win throughout the night)
2nd ABC (would place second throughout the night)
3rd FOX (likely to get third at 8 and fourth at 9)
4th NBC (likely to get fourth at 8 and third at 9)

Fridays
1st CBS (will easily win the night)
2nd NBC or ABC (leaning toward NBC with L&O)
3rd ABC or NBC (leaning toward ABC with waning Ugly Betty)
4th FOX (will easily lose the night)

Sunday
1st NBC (will dominate with football)
2nd ABC (would win at 9 and 10 but lose at
3rd CBS (would lose at 9 with Three Rivers which would bring down Cold Case)
4th FOX (would get fourth but with respectable numbers)

…and, with our luck, Nielsen will make their own “Renew/Cancel Index”, then send their evil piranha lawyers after you, your families, and all the site addicts for trademark violations, even though you were first…

…sounds like a new SyFy show synopsis to me – but who could be the lead piranha lawyer – James Woods?

I think ABC will squeak it out and average right about a 4.0 in the demo. I believe DWTS is staying 2 hours during the fall and with the most dancers ever in a season, it may keep the natural declines to a minimum. CBS I think will average about a 3.9 in the demo. They seem to be strong in the second half of the night and that should be up year over year but the first half including likely declines for 2.5 Men is why I think they won’t claim first. HIMYM never did great at 8, it should do ok now that it should have grown it’s fanbase after last year, but it will drop and I don’t see Purpose doing well at all at least not after the first couple episodes. FOX I think will be a very close third at 3.8 in the demo. I think Lie to Me is going to pull down the average for FOX quite a bit, but the show is compatible with House so if it can grow its audience it would give FOX a solid chance at taking first. It’s a very close race but I say ABC, then CBS, then FOX. NBC will be lucky to hang on to a 2.5-2.6 in the demo once Leno settles down. CW will be in their typical 1.1-1.2 range.

I can’t believe it’s fall again!! Time to start checking out the index soon! Thanks for keeping the site going!

8:00
Dancing With the Stars 20-22 million
House 13-14 million
How I Met Your Mother/Accidentally on Purpose 8-10 million
Heroes 7-8 million
One Tree Hill 3 million

Dancing will easily win 8-9 with 20 million and drama House coming in second with 13 million. I believe HIMYM along with Accidentally will hold up strong against these two shows with around 9 million average.
Heroes (which has been losing steam the past few years will get fourth with around 7 million viewers and One Tree Hill coming in fifth with 3 million.

9:00
DWTS 20 million
Two and a Half Men / The Big Bang Theory 13-15 million
Lie to Me 8-9 million
Trauma 5-7 million
Gossip Girl 2-3 million

Dancing will continue to hold up the hour with 20 million. (It has an advantage now that theres no comedy in the hour) In second, Two and a Half Men should easily build on its lead in and get around 14 million and The Big Bang Theory should hold on to its Men lead in better than any other comedy with 13 million. Lie to Me will get third (and should hold on to a good portion of House) with around 8-9 million and Trauma will get fourth with around 5-7 (if it can hold on to Heroes). Gossip Girl will likely get around 2-3 million in fifth.

10:00
CSI Miami 13-14 million
Castle 8-10 million
Jay Leno Show 5-7 million

CSI Miami will easily win 10pm like always with 13 million, and if Castle can hold on to a good portion of Dancing, it should get around 10 million. Jay Leno should get a good third of 5-7 million.

Bottom line
ABC’s Dancing will win the night followed by CBS’s comedies (freshman Accidentally should hold up through the season). FOX and NBC will likely place third and fourth respectively but the real interesting thing is to see the retention of Lie to Me out of House and Trauma out of Heroes. I think both should retain a good portion of their preceding show’s audience.

I don’t think you are that off in your predictions. Last season’s Heroes finale was VERY disappointing when you look at how popular the show USED to be. I think NBC has wanted to make this show a HUGE network player, but with its eroding audience (not to mention how expensive it is), I don’t see it lasting much longer.

8:00–House will take the hour with Dancing a fairly close second. HIMYM will take a hit moving to 8 and Accidentally on Purpose won’t help the situation any. Third could go to CBS or Heroes. CBS could pull a win if AOP surprises or if the Heroes audience is actually fed up and leaves.

9:00–CBS will win the hour. BBT will do really well behind Men, making this hour stronger than it has been in a long time. Dancing will be second (though winning in viewers). Lie to Me and Trauma will compete for a distant third.

10:00–Another win for CBS. Castle will hold steady with reasonable but not great ratings.

It was “flirting” with 4.0 last year (and hit it several times). With the Men lead-in, it will be flirting with 5.0

Maybe they should add a vampire.

Where did Heroes bottom out at last year? Sub 3.0? I see no reason why their average shouldn’t at or below that, with the earlier timeslot and additional hatred by viewers. Trauma will be lucky to get 3.0 – neither will be seen after February.

I see Castle hovering in the 2.6 – 2.8 range. Bad enough that ABC will want to cancel it, but good enough that there’s no guarantee a midseason replacement would do any better – the worst of all programming worlds.

Gossip Girl was great in 2008; there hasn’t been a good episode this year. I started to just skip the scenes with characters I don’t care about, which at least makes it more enjoyable. I hope it recovers in terms of quality…and in ratings as a result.

My predictions:

8pm
DWTS – 18 million (4.5 demo)
House – 15 million (4.6 demo)
How I Met Your Mother – 9 million (3.4 demo)
Accidentally on Purpose – 7 million (2.8 demo)
Heroes – 8 million (3.5 demo)
One Tree Hill – 2.5 million (1.2 demo)

9pm

Two and Half Men – 15 million (4.7 demo)
The Big Bang Theory – 12 million (4.5 demo)
Lie to Me – 10 million (3.2 demo)
Trauma – 6 million (2.0 demo)
Gossip Girl – 2.6 milllion (1.2 demo)

10pm

CSI Miami – 15 million (3.7 demo)
Castle – 10 million (2.5 demo)
Jay Leno – 5 million (1.8 demo)

I think when House has it’s big 2-hour premiere next week, it will probably pull in betweeen 12-14M and get around a 3.0 in the 18-49 demographic.

Heroes 2 hour premiere I’m afraid will probably do no better than 7-8M, but do okay in the 18-49 demo.