I've seen it on Twitter, and in our blog comments, and I'm sure if I'd bothered to tackle my RSS reader yet today, I'd be seeing it there too. The Mentalist beat The Jay Leno Show in total viewers (8.7 million to 8.5 million). But is it a big deal, little deal, or no deal at all?
You will of course make your own judgments. By itself, I don't think it's any deal at all. Yes, NBC has been telling the media that part of the beauty of The Jay Leno Show is that it will run 46 weeks a year of new shows. So while CSI: Miami might beat up on it in original episodes, Jay will strike back when it airs against the reruns. I believe that is true in the sense that Leno's performance against repeats will be better than it is against originals. But I don't take it to mean NBC expects Leno to win, even against CBS repeats.
Having looked at the numbers pretty much every day now for the last two years, it will be commonplace for Leno to lose in total viewers to CSI: Miami, CSI: NY and The Mentalist. In fact, except for special occasions/special guests, I'd guess those repeats will almost always beat new episodes of Jay Leno in total viewers.
Is that any cause for panic? No. NBC looked at the numbers every day for the last two years too. I'm sure they know what to expect.
But when things level out with The Jay Leno Show's ratings, I wouldn't be surprised if repeats on CBS sometimes, or even often, won in the demos too. CBS shows often perform well in repeats with 18-49 demographics in the low to mid 2.x range. I can see a scenario where a Mentalist repeat pulls a 2.6 and Leno does a 2.0. I can see that scenario very easily.
Does it matter? Well in the sense that NBC might have set themselves for this by playing the "we'll do better against repeats" card, it might matter, but otherwise no. Because NBC will be thrilled to be getting a 2.0 with The Jay Leno Show four months down the road, even if it's getting beaten out by a repeat on CBS.
Despite high anticipation and a great first week, NBC expected better profit margins, but better profit margins in this case can (and do) also come with lower ratings expectations. I agree with Bill Gorman completely about this:
I have to believe that NBC is OK with anything in the 1.5-2.0 18-49 demo rating range for Leno on a weekly average basis, and those CSI show repeats exceeded that often last season. Of course, this season could show more CSI erosion, but that remains to be seen.
As a bit of an aside, I found the exchange between Travis Yanan and TV Bill on Twitter very interesting. I'll leave you to contemplate it:
@travisyanan In that A50+ demo, LENO (5.0/11) was also beat by Mentalist repeat (6.2/14). But yeah, lead-in for Jay in that demo was 2.6/5!
@TVBill well, CBS *always* wins in 50+... so Mentalist R number doesn't surprise me! but that's big growth for TJLS in 50+ vs lead-in
Ultimately I think TJLS will do best with an older demo, but if it gets the 1.5-2.0 18-49 then NBC, as you say, will be pleased. I think we could see on some nights the older demos who usually are with CBS shift to Jay Leno. It is going to be an interesting season.
Of course the haters were going to come out in full force as soon as this happened. But as you guys have discussed, as long as the demos are relatively strong (1.5ish), NBC really couldn’t care less.
Anon, FWIW, I really don’t think everyone chirping about it is a hater. NBC brought it upon itself somewhat by making it a talking point to begin with.
Considering what NBC has called a success in the past, I have no idea what numbers are good for Leno. While I would not panic, I find it a bit strange that at this late date in the repeat season, he could not beat The Mentalist in total.
Once new Mentalist and Private Practice return, Jay Leno will lower severly.
Well we will have a better picture next week how much lower Jay’s ratings will go when many of the new season shows begin. I don’t expect Jay will have the strong week he has had mostly this week, but I also don’t think it’s going to be the disaster that some people here believe.
Jeff, having looked at the numbers regularly, I just don’t find it surprising at all. CBS shows repeat VERY well. If Leno lost to an ABC repeat at 10p though, that would surprise me. Otherwise, I will be surprised IF/WHEN Leno beats The Mentalist in total viewers, not the other way around.
the general consensus around here is Leno would settle down into the 5-7 million range and somewhere between a 1.5-2.0 in the demo. CBS reruns will often win in the demo too. It shouldn’t be a surprise.
I do Leno will settle down to a 5-7m average with higher performances for good guests and shows like The Biggest Loser or AGT or even The Winter Olympics and when the CBS/ABC are in repeats.
I wonder when Leno is away, could NBC simply not have repeats of Leno especially in the Winter Olympics unless they cap events to run until 10pm rather than 11pm.
Is there any benefit from casual viewers checking in for 5-10 minutes at a time? I might flip over, even mid-show, to Leno and see if it’s a funny bit or guest, but I won’t check in to watch 5-10 minutes of a 1 hr drama.
Jim, all the minutes get counted so if 6 million people watched for only 10 minutes, that would add 1 million to the average.
Y’know, I always thought it was the ‘Tonight Show’ brand more than anything that dictated the size of the audience during the Leno years–but after this week I’m starting to think it was Leno himself, and that he does have a legitimate core fanbase. How big that fanbase truly is up against new CBS and ABC programming is anybody’s guess, but I’m betting that Leno will do roughly around whatever his median Tonight Show numbers were back in ’08.
greennogo, that was in the 1.4-1.5 range for A18-49, but not sure about the viewer averages.
JLS ratings will directly correlate to how high profile and how popular the guests are at the moment. Last night, Jay had Halle Berry. The nights before included Cameron Diaz and Kanye West. The high profile guest reserve will be tapped out soon. Love Mariska Hargitay and Steve Carell (NBC will likely require all its stars to appear on JLS eventually), but unlikely they would draw Halle Berry ratings.
What this entire discussion is neglecting is how the local NBC affiliates play into this picture. This is a case where NBC can’t just look at their own profits, they also must focus on the lead-in to the local news. If TJLS erosion in the last quarter hour continues, and the numbers on the late local news are effected, the affiliates won’t stand for it. This is a situation that won’t completely play out for a while (at least until Nov. sweeps), but it has to be a huge concern for NBC – almost as much as their own profitability.
True SB but if TJLS is doing about as well as their scripted dramas were in that hour then it won’t be a problem. I think there will be highs and lows but overall Leno will do okay. Next week should tell us a great deal more.
“NBC looked at the numbers every day for the last two years too. I’m sure they know what to expect.”
You have a lot of faith in NBC, they are on the bottom of the heap for a reason, just saying
I have more faith (vastly so) in their bean counting/number crunching abilities than in their programming savvy!
I get the feeling that NBC may just phone in Leno’s Thursday nights, since he’s going to get absolutely thrashed on them by facing both The Mentalist and Private Practice.
Better to just focus resources on the other nights with weaker competition. Especially Wednesday, it looks like a weak point in CBS and ABC right now at the 10pm hour.
Who really expected Jay to have an opening week this successful? I certainly didn’t. I think it’s inevitable for his numbers to go down; but I don’t think NBC will call it quits once May rolls around.
Jay Leno Lite seems like a great show for what it is. However, I think that once the numbers settle in, he will will/should start doing the show his way and not take the advice of some weasel in a suit on the affiliate board who has no concept of producing comedy or television.
Local News needs to get with the times in my opinion because lead ins are a relic of the past in this multi-channel, multi-platform environment. This is not the same television that most of us in our late 30′s and early 40′s grew up watching. News Directors need to work with the promotions people and stop complaining about lead in and produce their own results. Good content drives viewers to their product, not a lead in.