The Jay Leno Show wrapped its first week with numbers that fall into the range where NBC couldn't have reasonably hoped for better. As predicted by most, the show premiered to relatively huge numbers and declined throughout the week with the exception of a Susan Boyle appearance on the finale of America's Got Talent bumping the Wednesday numbers up.
Some attention was paid to a repeat of The Mentalist beating Leno in total viewers on Thursday as if that was a bad sign for the show. But we don't believe that's a bad sign. In fact, we fully expect CBS reruns will regularly beat Leno in total viewers and we won't be at all surprised if CBS repeats regularly edge Leno out in the 18-49 demo either. But we don't think that means anything in terms of the show's viability in NBC's eyes. My feeling has been (Bill's might differ slightly) that if Leno averages a 1.5 in adults 18-49 NBC will be content, regardless of yakking from affiliates, and if it averages a 2.0, NBC (and begrudgingly, the affiliates) will be ecstatic.
This week is meaningless in figuring the show's future prospects. While next week will be more telling, it might take a month or two or three before we really have a feel for how the show is doing. I wouldn't predict any panic by NBC in that time frame. I would predict lots of stories in the media that are panicky in nature regardless.
Of course, if Leno is pulling a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating next week, I reserve the right to panic myself. Even with the competition airing new shows at 10pm next week, I would be very surprised if any airing of The Jay Leno Show dips below a 1.5 with adults 18-49 next week.
Though putting the week's data into a chart doesn't add any particular value, I have a week before trying to calculate how what movies were playing and what outfits Eliza Dushku wore impacted Dollhouse's ratings, so I did the chart anyway.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
*Numbers for Friday 9/18 are preliminary fast national results, all other results are final nationals
Didn’t Leno do 3.4 in the finals on Tuesday?
Definitely a good first week. I’ll be surprised if next week’s average is too far below 2.5, which will be great for NBC. But it should be closer to 1.5 by next month.
you are correct!
So during his first week Leno lost 58% of total viewers and 60% 18-49 rating. Pretty hefty drop but still from a mucher higher point that thought. He is doing good, Nbc must be happy.
Next week will be Leno’s big test. I expect a huge drop.
Here is a question for Robert S. What did NBC average for each night for last season in the Leno time slot? I think the real question should be is Leno doing as well as the network did last season? The network was not strong with a few exceptions like the ER finale.
ER was “strong” relatively all year. And so was L&O: SVU when it was in original episodes. Sadly, we don’t have the stats you’re looking for. I wish we did.
As I said last week.
Sub 6m by 1st week Oct.
Also is Bored to Death the next Emily’s Reasons Why Not?
So the 2.1 he pulled on Friday isn’t a cause for panic for NBC?
Cullen, he’s (probably) still profitable at a 1.5 average, and Fridays are expected to be his lowest rated episodes of the week. So, no, 2.1 on Friday is cause for NBC to be very smug…for now.
How could NBC possibly be satisfied with Jay Leno with anything in the 1.5 or 2.0 range, when in his last season at 11:30, he averaged a 3.9 rating? The ratings you seem to suggest would be acceptable if he had moved to 12:30, not prime time. Let’s get real, stop drinking that NBC Kool-Aid.
Tom, well if you read the article, it specified 1.5-2.0 adults 18-49 rating. But since nobody here ever talks about household rating, in the comments people do commonly not call it out. Anyway, Leno averaged a 1.4 during the 2008-2009 season for The Tonight Show in the adults 18-49 demo…
It ended the week with a 2.1 (demo) and this is with high awareness, high profile guests, and weak competition. It does not seem improbable that Numb3rs numbers (1.0) will soon be attained.
This is why the jay leno show is starting to ruin everything in nbc’s schedule each day. Just last night, NBC delayed last call with carson daly to 2:00am last night or this morning. The Jay Leno show is going to be canceled after next week because it’ll have bad ratings with a 1.0 rating every night next week. Let’s see what happens in 2 weeks from now.
As much as I wish Jay Leno would crash and burn spectacularly, and Jeff Zucker would experience 2010 slinging burgers in a Wendy’s, this is going to be a success for NBC by their metrics. Personally, I don’t get it. In fact I find Jay about as amusing as a wet fart on a hot date, but he has his fan base, and there is a genuine audience out there for his brand of milquetoast pseudo-variety in the weeknight 10pm slot. The ratings will drop to the 1.5+ range sooner or later, but for NBC and what they’re paying, that’s a success. Congrats. Jay’s popular. But then again, so is cancer.
Elie, no way Jay is going to be cancelled in two weeks if his ratings drop. NBC would not do that after all the hype. And frankly, I don’t expect this to be a flop. If he can maintain 1.5-2.0 18-49 and 5-6 million average with increases on some nights and a better ratings average when scripted shows go on hiatus then NBC will consider this a big success especially since the budget for a week full of JL Shows equals one hour long scripted drama.
These Leno haters are the best!!! It’s like my hate for every CW show, except ‘supernatural’ (VD pending)… I love it!
btw – congrats to Jay, this was beyond anything I expected. I’m glad, because he (Jay) rulzzz, as far as comedy talk show is concerned. He and Craig Ferguson, actually. Not because Craig is funny, (he is NOT) it’s just… he has Kristen Bell on the show like every other month, and that, in my book, is considered a quality TV.
Never watched Leno never will. What a waste of a timeslot.
I know NBC is looking for the 18-49 demo, as networks should be, but the late local news is looking for the 25-54 demo. What demo do you think is more important for Jay to have?
RJ, very interesting question. Presumably it would be the adults 18-49 demo, as US primetime broadcast networks (minus CW recently) have targeted for more than a generation.
But in NBC’s emailed ratings “updates” referring to The Jay Leno Show have also been including adults 25-54 ratings with the following clause “(the key demographic for late local news)”.
Were I a betting man, I’d put money down that if the 18-49 numbers begin to look particularly bad for Leno, NBC PR’s next fallback line will become 25-54 ratings and they’ll justify that because of the local news lead-in.
I like Leno, but I just hated watching his first show that I actually forgot the show existed on tuesday. The things I hated about the show were (which the pictures brings up point one):
1) Interviewing on the chairs doesn’t feel right to me. To me it is more fun if the host is behind a desk doing the interview.
2) The random placement of the skit pieces throughout the program. I hated having to watch the entire episode waiting for headlines, only to see he actually does have a desk and wasn’t using it for the interviews.
The show needs to be kept like it was before, with all the comedy bits at the beginning, and the interviews at the end.