Predicting the decline in the broadcast network prime-time audience for the upcoming 2009-10 season is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel. After all, broadcast networks have been losing primetime audience to ad supported cable networks for more than a generation.
However, I'd expect declines to be even more substantial than last season's (see chart below) for two primary reasons:
1. Accountants, Not Ratings, Making Renewal Decisions. The number of below average rated shows brought back from 2008-9 for primarily economic reasons is greater than it was from 2007-8. That will start those broadcasters in a ratings hole.
2. The Jay Leno Show. NBC is abandoning a portion of its weekday 10-11 ratings and knows it.
Prediction: This season I'd expect audience declines to average 10% for broadcast primetime.
A few extraordinary things will (or could) boost the numbers we see:
1. The Winter Olympics. NBC will get a massive boost from the two weeks of Winter Olympics in February. I'll pull that boost out of ratings comparisons as best I can. Don't count on the rest of the TV media (or god knows, NBC PR) to do that though.
2. Baseball Playoffs / World Series. If Fox gets long series between popular teams their averages can be boosted tremendously. Last fall they had relatively bad luck (TNT had better luck with their games), so good luck this season could produce some upside. Unfortunately, with the data I get I can't do a good job of isolating.
3. CW abandons Sunday night. As I already covered, this is pretty much guaranteed to boost the CW's averages no matter what happens to their weekday ratings.
Here's what happened last season:
In the chart above, I have adjusted the NBC numbers to remove the effects of Super Bowl week 2009 and adjusted the Fox numbers to remove the effects of Super Bowl week 2008. My adjustments remove the effect of the entire week, not just the game, so they're crude, but they make season to season comparisons at least reasonably possible. With the data I have available I cannot make a finer adjustment.
what is mnt?
I think it might be My Network TV.
Dodgers vs. Yankees would be the drwam of every Fox executive. And it looks like that dream will come true this year.
While NBC have given up the 10-11 slot they’ve also effectively reduced their exposure to every other show on the Network.
We all know that on Network promotion via promo’s is by far the most cost effective way of reaching an audience. Given NBC’s admitted target numbers they’re effectively saying that every other show on the Network is devalued as well.
I’d be REALLY interested if at the end of the year you did an NBC like for like comparison stripping out the 10-11 slot and the Olympics, I suspect NBC’s overall numbers could be down in the 15-20% range on their 8-10 shows.
How long before the affiliates start to scream/bail/sell out?
I fully suspect CW will close at the conclusion of the season, what will happen to the more popular shows is anyones guess.
Im really hoping for ABC this year. They didnt have such a great year last year so im hoping they do good this year. 3 of their new shows are in the top 10 most anticipated shows to watch so we will see.
I really hope the CW improves!
I’m reading the local media critics column in the paper. He’s interviewing the local affiliate managers (by phone) about their Fall lineups. The NBC guy is excited about Leno and the new show “Drama”, a medical show to replace ER. I’ve never heard of “Drama”, then I realize he’s talking about “Trauma”.
So what.
Here’s the “so what”, the local media writer (who’s job it is to sit around and watch TV) doesn’t know the name of NBC’s new “hit” show that they have been advertising all summer! NBC is doomed!
Anyway, I think the drop off in viewers will be closer to a 17% average.
The CW is a DEAD NETWORK. Not programming Sunday will NOT boost their weekly average. If the economy, i.e. advertising, doesn’t pick up, WB and CBS will announce that The CW will cease to exist.
As the linked article explains, the CW has simply dropped its worst-performing night. Rather than contracting Sunday with Media Rights Capital and counting the ratings, the CW is giving the night to affiliates to program.
Sunday was so bad last year that it’s mathematically impossible to avoid a year-to-year increase by not counting it. Even if the CW loses 10 percent Monday-Friday (as predicted across TV in this article), ratings will improve on balance. That doesn’t mean the CW is in better shape. It just means some dead weight was thrown off the sinking ship so it can float a bit longer.
That doesn’t mean the CW is in better shape. It just means some dead weight was thrown off the sinking ship so it can float a bit longer.
Not necessarily. All I really see it meaning is that the PR people at CW have been given a gift, and that’s it. This could still be CW’s last year despite being able to look better.
But, I don’t agree with Zedman2, either. CBS and WB like CW because there are shows on the network that manage to make money for the studios in DVD sales and the like. Yes, they are losing money on CW, but they get to make it back in other ways. But I’m not sure how long that excuse can hold out anymore, considering how CW’s premieres have gone.
I really believe that if the CW would bring in a new head executive that will go away from the cookie cutter teen soaps that they’re airing now the CW could bounce back. Sadly, I think they’ll keep Dawn until the end (which could be very soon).
So MyNetwork is the only thing that went up? Was that all caused by SVU re-runs and Smackdown?
This is in The CW’s website: “The CW Network was formed as a joint venture between Warner Bros. Entertainment and CBS Corporation. The CW is America’s fifth broadcast network and the only network targeting women 18-34.”
It does seem self defeating to target such a narrow audience, but the bean counters at both corporations must see financial benefits in operating The CW in that way. Their respective studios, DVD sales, etc. all factor in.
If the major nets didn’t just completely give up in the summer for 3 months a year they might not face such losses each fall. It also would help if NBC would stop broadcasting in letterbox format to standard def tvs – it’s a huge turnoff to viewers without HD which is still most viewers.
I’m not saying LA won’t be in the series, and I’m not saying LA won’t have the home field advantage playing St. Louis, and I’m not even saying LA won’t be favored over St. Louis, but, as a forty year fan I couldn’t let Dennis’ statement just stand as is. I dobn’t care if St. Louis versus the Yankees ( or whomever; I’d prefer the Red Sox or Twins for a grudge match ) would be the worst rated World Series ever … go Cards! As for the rest of the article … hmm. Saw the USA Today ” critics ” cheerleading shamelessly as usual for their fgavorite returning shows a few days ago, with a Web link to Robert Biaichi ( Bianchi?) Apparently it’s going to be The Gweastest Network Year Ever!!!!
QUOTE: So MyNetwork is the only thing that went up? Was that all caused by SVU re-runs and Smackdown? END QUOTE
MyNetworkTV didnt have repeats of SVU in primetime last year. All they had was Magic Shows, Crime Tuesdays, Comedy Wednesdays, Thursday and Saturday Movies and Smackdown.
I think The CW can survive this season, barely. It will be shut down in may 2011.
so FOX is prauing for a good world series matchup:
I’m callin a Cardinals/Yankees World Series, I dont know how happy they will be with that, but thats what i think they r gonna get.
Tom – I agree, May 11 may be a good predicted end date. The veterans will likely be wrapped up by then Smallville in 2010, Supernatural and ONe ree Hill in 2011, America’s Next Top Model probably moving to another network, but What will happen to series like Gossip Girl, 90210, Melrose Place, and Vampire Diaries. Despite focusing on Monday-Friday, The ratings are sinking so only time will tell.
Dingo – What The CW was doing was basically like throwing dead weight of a sinking ship. They started with comedies in 2006, then moved the veteran 7th Heaven there, then tried out reality programs and a drama, then tried licensing the night. Every year ratings for the sunday shows just got worse and worse. Getting rid of sunday nights will save The CW money but its just prolonging their death.
Rob – ABC completely revamped their schedule (since 2008-2009 was basically a slightly changed 2007-2008). Big changes include no comedy after Dancing, which gives the 10pm Castle a big chance opportunity; a new drama tuesday at 10; A brand new wednesday with 4 comedies and a drama, and the first time ABC has had four comedies in the fall since 2004; a new drama Flashforward replacing Ugly Betty since Betty first premiered in 2006, and Betty moving to fridays as a result. With ABC’s only drama renewals in recent years being private Practice and Castle, ABC needs a new hit. Both those series just rely on retention from two highly rated series, but they cant do it forever. Flashforward could be a hit and hopefully it can hold up against Survivor and Bones.
Craiguk – NBC didnt give up on NBC they just deciced to try something different to save money. NBC figures that they waste so much on dramas that fail, why not try a talk/variety show like Jay Leno 5 nights a week. Unlike expectations for NBC’s 10pm dramas, they expect Jay Leno to not beat the competition but just to win the demos and do well enough. I don’t know what this means for NBC’s future but it seems that they are turning into FOX by having limited dramas and basically the same 10pm.
Here’s my guess on the first cancellations.
ABC
Hank – Initial low ratings mixed with not being as well received as the other three comedies puts this one at a big risk of being axed
Eastwick – With competition from CSI NY at 10 and low retention from ABC’s comedy block, this drama is highly likely to flop.
V – I wouldnt say this series would be axed but it will likely end after 13 episodes, ABC only does OK at 8pm and V will face heavy NCIS, SYTYCD, and Biggest Loser competition.
All the other new ABC series look safe including, Flashforward, Modern Family, and Cougar Town (which will all definitely get full seasons despite ratings) as well as The Forgotten, The Middle and sophomore Castle (which are all likely to get a full years).
CBS
Three Rivers – Increased Football, Housewives, and Family Guy competition at 9 puts this freshman at risk. The Amazing Race lead in can do only so well, but Rivers is likely to be axed after 4 airings.
ALl other series look safe. NCIS: LA looks to be an immediate success and should be around for sveral years. The Good Wife will likely be kept around for additional episodes (like last year’s Eleventh Hour). Accidentally will get additonal episodes or a full year but wont be axed.
CW
The Beatiful Life – While not immediately, The CW may cancel this series around November or December and burn off episodes. Its likely that CW will just run the series after ANTM until then just because they have a lack of midseason series.
Vampire Diaries and Melrose Place should be safe for the entire year.
FOX
Dollhouse – This would seem like the only network that would have a sophomore series be its first cancellation. The show will likely die on fridays and FOX will seem to give up on it.
Suprisingly I’d consider Brothers safe. While likely low rated, the series will get higher ratings than Til Death so if FOX is keeping Death, they’ll give Brothers a full season shot too. They dont want a repeat of last year’s Do Not Disturb. Glee is safe for the whole year.
NBC
Mercy – This drama seems like the underdog. While a “cancellation” wouldnt be said by NBC The series will likely last until midseason, and then replaced by Parenthood.
Trauma and Community seem safe as are sophomores Southland and Parks and Recreation for the whole season.