I've written that my guess was that the long term ratings averages for The Jay Leno Show would probably equal or slightly exceed his average last fall on the Tonight Show (1.5 rating for adults 18-49), and now comes news that rating could earn NBC as much as $300 million a year.
With just a 1.5 rating, "The Jay Leno Show" could make $300 million a year for NBC -- and probably spark other networks to follow suit.
That was the judgment of WME head of nonscripted John Ferriter, speaking Tuesday on a Producers Caucus panel at the Beverly Hills Hotel.
via THR.com.
And in the theatre of the obvious, does Nikki Finke, of Deadline Hollywood Daily, really think a prediction that The Jay Leno Show would finish behind first run broadcast competition on Monday night was bold? Did it really warrant a TOLDJA!?
Was anyone predicting otherwise?
Watch this space when I reveal the outcome of my prediction on the sun rising tomorrow morning. ;)
Well, bully for for NBC if they can get blood from a stone. What worries me is the “probably spark the other networks to follow suit” remark.
Scripted programming is already being squeezed out in favor of cheap, mindless reality programming. God help us all if that morphs into more networks shoving boring talk shows (and hosts) onto the primetime programming slate.
Hi Bill – I just want to say thank you for having a go at Niki – as much as I know she is THE site for movies and movie related information she really has no clue about television. THIS is THE site for television – while VERY occasionally I disagree on a small point you might make – I think you and Rob are THE bombs when it comes to TV rating analysis.
PS where are the 18-34 ratings – did Nielsen make you take them down?
Nikki Finke is too petty and narcissistic to take seriously. I read the site for about a month for the news, but I eventually had to delete the bookmark.
I understand that a lot of people in Hollywood are like that, but it’s just too depressing to read on a daily basis. My favorite is how she made the story about that fired NBC president (I already forget the name) all about HER. Yeah, babe. The news is all about you.
He could make 300 million dollars a year just keeping a 1.5 in a key demo? Well, if Leno makes them that much with that few eyeballs in the demo watching, then like or hate the guy, he’s staying on the air. Wonder how much he would have to get to break even or make only a slight profit? Hmmm…
As to Finke’s bold prediction… um. Yea. Might be time to hold a contest to find an article where someone actually predicted Jay would NOT fall into the back of the competition heap? And yea, is the sun coming up tomorrow? If not, I need to get my batteries changed in the flashlight.
Thanks in advance!
I think Jay will continue with these numbers. Given the juggernaut of CSI:Miami it was a true test. I don’t see the other networks following suit there is still to much money on the table currently with scripted shows at 10/9pmn especially with the reduced competition.
I hate the focus on 18-49 but I was encouraged that CBS comedy beat the first night of DWTS there. The production costs of DWTS must be very low so they are still way ahead. The problem with DWTS is that ABC used it as a spoiler to soften up the other scripted shows against it so that when they launched their own shows later after they scaled the DWTS hours back they got an extra boost in ratings. If DWTS starts to slip it could have a domino effect on the later scripted shows. Especially next year. The mouse can’t be happy with that.
This is some very rough math. Assuming 22 minutes of ad time per episode and 52 episodes per year, this comes to charging $262,237.76 a minute. (300 million/(22 mins X 52 eps)) This would be the average and this seems a steep rate for a 1.5 (demo). There would have to be higher rates for new episodes and lower rates for reruns. The rate would have to go up an additional $5,141.92 per minute for each episode pre-empted per year and also an additional $7345.60 per minute not used for ads (promos, PSAs, etc.) There may be other revenue sources such as iTunes and internet ads (I have no idea how to calculate that).
Also, as of Monday night, there was an ever plummeting 1.8 (demo) with Jennifer Garner and Barney Freank. As the guests become less high profile, not sure averaging 1.5 will be attainable. 300 million seems a little dreamy.
CK…um. Let’s keep the math simple and call it $100,000 per 30 second spot. And further say there are 32 thirty second spots (16 minutes) for $3.2 million per episode. The Leno show will go 46 weeks a year at 5 episodes a week. That’s $736 million.
That’s of course very rough, doesn’t factor in reruns of Leno show or what will happen during the olympics, but there’s not 52 episodes a year, but more like 230 new ones.
Nice rough math except that Leno is scheduled for 46 weeks a year of new episodes. If he does 5 per week, that’s 230 episodes, not 52.
Nicely done, Robert
by the way, sticking with the rough math, and the original estimate of $300 million profit at a 1.5 rating. If you figure Leno’s show costs roughly $100 million a year, they’re looking for well less than $100K per spot, and more like $55,000.
Edit: And staying on the theme, the key ingredient is that it costs less than $500K per episode.
Crap. I need to do this BEFORE the margarita. My bad.
But as Kariato says above there is actuality a lot more money available on the table, it’s just that NBC have creatively lost the plot and given up.
While the numbers for the show itself may hold up at a 1.5 demo (which I don’t think it’ll get, I would say by early December you’ll be lucky to average a 1.4 and pretty dreadful demographics) you are devaluing every other show on the Network (by less opportunity to use on air promo) and saying to your affiliates “we’re all right thanks, where are you going to make your money?”.
No matter how you look at it the reality of this decision is that Zucker can’t program and this is the equivalent of throwing in the creative towel.
Given the rumours about the sale of the 20% and maybe GE floating off the whole thing Zucker won’t survive, someone with a little more creative juice will come back.
Let me get this straight: this whole $300 mil hypothesis is based on the musings of an agent?? And even worse, an agent with a vested interest in reality programming blossoming across the prime time landscape? You guys may know numbers, but you don’t seem to know Hollywood. Because there’s one primary rule in show biz, and that is you never, ever trust an agent.
But of course, you should trust someone about which all you know is two initials, eh? Hahahahahaha.
Love Leno or Hate Leno (raises hand). Either way, if he is making NBC $300 million/year, even $200 million, the fact remains that NBC will keep him around no matter what his ratings are. Bottom line, NBC really doesn’t care about what type/genre of show they put out or how many people watch it as long as it makes them money.
As long as Jay keeps stealing his ideas from Howard Stern, he’ll be on the air even with a crap show.
Actually, this isn’t news to me. This is what I first thought when I heard NBC was doing this with Leno. And, given that there’s a good chance he’ll pull those 1.5 ratings in the 18-49 year olds, I think it’s probably going to stick.
Betcha money ABC follows suit in a few years.
LOL!! if Jay Leno could actually make $300 million a year: ABC, CBS, NBC & FOX would have had nothing but talk shows on for a decade.
Ok I am confused. How much does an episode of Heroes cost. I read on tv.com that NBC cut the budget from 800 000 to 500 000 dolars.
I don’t understand. If Leno cost 350 000$ to produce then they are in minus with him cause no one will watch Leno or dvd and he will not sell well internationaly (we have our own talk shows).
Somebody help me. Because I’m confused. Yes, it makes sense that Leno can make more money with less viewers because it is cheaper to produce.
But when do the affiliates revolt? How can they accept such a poor lead in to their 11:00 news? Isn’t that where they make their money?
What am I missing?