Heres hoping to better ratings tonight!

I understand your desire to be realistic and I would definitely agree that it’s never advisable to lose sight of the reality of a situation, but at the same time, circumstances can change.

I was somewhat pessimistic myself last year when I heard that Fox was airing Dollhouse. I have a long history of watching Fox cancel my favorite shows, from the early ’90′s up until very recently. But I was told to be patient, that Reilly was in charge now, and that he thinks differently. And that is indeed what happened with S1 of Dollhouse.

I very much understand what it’s like to lose favorites and I actually did watch Pushing Daisies and DSM too (though I was mightily disappointed with the quality of DSM in S2). But I was prepared for their cancelations when they did happen. I had been through it before with ABC shows like Line of Fire, Murder One, Once & Again and Sports Night.

But just because a lot of good shows (or what I consider to be good shows) have been canceled doesn’t mean that they will all be.

Dollhouse’s return doesn’t make a lot of sense to me under the old rules and so when I hear from Fox executives that there are new rules, that they are trying an experiment that may or may not be successful, then I am inclined to believe them.

The experiment may not make complete sense to those of us on the outside, it could be changed at any time. But so far, in regards to DH, Fox seems to know what they want a lot better than I do. The Spring schedule may be quite tough if Dollhouse is still on it, but if Fox really is still committed to this experiment, then I think that it will have an honest chance of a Back 9 and/or a S3 renewal.

Anyway AO, I dont know what will happen to Dollhouse, I cant until the ratings for the first few eps. I’m just trying to be realistic. I had high hopes last year for three ABC dramas that started out their first seasons with really good ratings (unlike Dollhouse) but were interuppted by the strike. I had hoped their second seasons would be better but unfortunately by November ABC decided not to order anymore episodes and all 3 were off the schedule by December (and returned to air the final episodes in the summer). Now I dont think FOX wants Dollhouse to fail, and they wouldnt want any series to fail. Its just, I dont think they would expect much. And with the exception of 24 replacing Lie to Me, I dont think Mondays and Thursdays will be changing throughout the year. I could be wrong and Dollhouse could get a full year just how it got a second season, the odds are just really slim…….

Fox currently has 24 slated to begin Sunday, January 17th for 2 hours and then to air another 2 hours on Monday the 18th. But they aren’t able to air anything past 10:00, so those two nights will both have to be 8:00 – 10:00.

I didn’t mean to imply that I thought that Fox was hoping to win Thursdays and if that’s how my post sounded then I am sorry for that. I’m just feeling that Fox expected Fringe to be a bit more competitive at 9:00 then it looks like it will be. Based on that impression, I don’t know that Fox will be as reluctant to make changes, or do some tweaking there, as Dan seems to feel they will be.

Obviously Fox looks to have a surplus of shows that have been/are/should be successful and fitting them all in during the Spring will be a challenge. I just won’t concede that it is an impossible hurdle, or one that necessarily involves canceling Dollhouse (if the ratings warrant it’s continuation). And even if a show HAS to migrate to Fridays at 9:00, then I still maintain that 9 Dollhouse Eps could be shown Jan- mid March, with something else moving in that slot for the rest of the Spring.

I genuinely think that Fox wants Dollhouse to succeed, because they want scripted programming on Fridays, because it’s now cheap, because they don’t want to kill any other shows, etc. and I don’t see how their replacing it with any of the other options would be anything other than admitting that their Friday strategy has failed. Maybe it will fail, but I don’t think that they are rooting for that to happen.

Major League Baseball does throw things off, I’m just being optimistic in hoping that it will impact Mondays and Thursdays as little as possible.

Bottom line: Dan appears to be quiet convinced that Dollhouse HAS to remain off the schedule in the Spring and, as a fan, I’m trying to present all the reasons and scenarios why that doesn’t have to happen. As always, time will tell!

Major League Baseball playoffs wreak havoc on FOX’s fall schedule starting after the first week of October and potentially going all the way out until November 1 this year. It’s possible there could be several Thursday nights preempted during that time.

Sorry again for the delay in getting back to you. And thanks for the compliment.

I understand that Fox may be reluctant to to anything that might screw up Thursdays, IF they actually do well there (I think that Bones will be fine, but I’m a bit concerned about how Fringe will do against such tough competition). But in the same way, why would Fox risk killing a show by moving it to Fridays if they can avoid it? Especially if due to Dollhouse’s lower costs then they have the potential to be profitable there based on it’s budget?

As for how many episodes of Bones and Fringe will actually air in the Fall, then it looks like we just disagree. I absolutely concur that 11/26 is not a date when anything new will air, but otherwise I question why, given the overall strength of Fox’s shows Mon-Thurs, would they air repeats when they can avoid them? Especially in the Fall which is always weaker without AI and 24. Fox could air on only the dates that you are predicting, but I think that it would make more sense for them to include additional days in order to shore up their own ratings and try to take advantage of repeats by other Networks (and I know that I am biased based on my plan, in the same way that you are for yours).

For Lie To Me, is that 8-10 remaining? It looks like 8-10 aired and again, I am thinking more like 11 (and hoping for 12). Lie To Me starting back up again immediately in January does make sense, (I believe that I had thought that it might be a good idea too). Though I’m wondering, if they can do that, then why would they even need to move anything to Fridays at 9:00?

And Kitchen Nightmare is cheap, but so is Dollhouse now. Again, that’s why they hope to remain profitable with it despite what will probably be low ratings. Fox has said that they do want to avoid reality on Fridays and so that works to DH’s favor over Kitchen Nightmares.

In your response to nkinsey you say “FOX notices that fridays are great for shows they can just burn off”. They have more recently said that they don’t want that anymore, they want to figure out a model for profitable scripted programming on Fridays. That is one of the key reasons that I understood that they are trying out this new model with Dollhouse, to break from that past. And if that is a priority for them, then why would they abandon it by airing a reality show, if they have the relatively inexpensive Dollhouse?

Tues January-February
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Lie to Me

Tues March-May
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Past Life

Friday January-February
8:00 Til Death
8:30 Brothers
9:00 Kicthen Nightmares

Friday March-May
8:00 Til Death
8:30 Brothers
9:00 Lie to Me

Its possible, FOX would premiere Past Life fridays at 9, instead of giving it the Idol treatment and leaving Lie to Me where it is.

I 100% agree with you on Lie to Me (which I did WAAAAAY up on this thread when I guesstimated that Lie to Me would move to Tuesdays).

And I agree it would make absolute sense to move KN to Fridays midseason. Not only are their other nights jam-packed with potential, but FOX has had a lot of success on Fridays with reality fair (Trading Spouses/Nanny 911, 5th Grader/Lyrics)- so much so that I was puzzled when they replaced those shows and put scripted stuff on instead. Either way, FOX’s track record with Gordon’s show placement I wouldn’t be surprised if they put it on another night.

Regrettably something came up for me last night and I didn’t have the chance to view your reply until now. I’m not able to respond this morning, but will absolutely take time later today to think over your post and respond. My apologies for the delay.

With so many scheduling options, FOX has a packed year. However by leaving nights alone (Mondays, Thursdays) and slightly tweaking other nights (Tuesdays and Wednesdays) FOX can build up strong series and at the same time test other series out.

Bones and Finge will air

9/17
9/24
10/1
10/8
10/15
11/12
11/19
12/3
12/10

New episodes wouldnt air on 10/22, 10/29, and 11/5 due to the world series and not on 11/26 due to Thanksgiving. I’d think maybe twice in december, the 17th may be a little late, or when repeats may start airing. That leaves 13 episodes of each for the spring. I dont think either series would be moved just because FOX wants to stay consistent with the night (because it is Thursdays)

As for Lie to Me, the series has episodes scheduled for

9/28
10/5
10/12
10/26
11/9
11/16
11/23
11/30
12/7
12/14

1 of those is likely to be a repeat, but we can agree on an average of 8-10 depending on how the series does. I think instead of putting the series on hiatus (like Glee), Lie to Me will just continue after Idol from January-February. If FOX likes the series, they will help it out again and finish the run early. If not they may just burn off all episodes or move it to fridays. I really dont think Past Life will premiere any earlier than March, which gives Lie to Me a good slot after Idol until then. Unless they want a new Hell’s Kitchen season in that slot. As you can see there is so many scheduling options.

The more likely scenario is that if Dollhouse gets axed, I believe all 13 episodes will run on fridays (hopefully into January) and then Kitchen Nighmares will replace it. Kitchen Nightmares is cheap, and if FOX wants to air the series they wouldnt put on a night with too much compeition. So if FOX doesnt want to premiere ny new dramas in the 9:00 friday slot, Nightmares is likely to go there, after Brothers and Til Death.

To which I say:

Womanizing, identity stealing Don Draper a better role model?

It did, but it’s still costing more than the ratings show its worth.

I love how after disputing me on Lie to Me maybe airing on Tuesdays that you came back around with AO and said that was a possible scenario (Most likely after/before the first-run of the midseason shows). A lot of people on sites always stick with what they said first, which makes them seem stubborn. However, you came out of this looking well thought-out.

I totally agree with you that Monday & Thursday will stay how they were intended (House/24 & Bones/Fringe), even with repeats.

I also think that Kitchen Nightmares should probably go on Fridays, however for some reason, I don’t think FOX will do that. When it comes to that program, FOX confuses me (hell, and I worked for them too!!).

Responding to a post that isn’t about me–

//Marc Berman did not list it as one of last night’s Losers.//

He also didn’t list it as a winner, or give it an honorable mention.

//The chemistry between Castle and Beckett is excellent and Castle
is one of the few positive portrayals of a father on TV.//

You have got to be kidding me. Don Draper is a model dad compared to this guy. If the chemistry is so wonderful, why is the demo so awful?

//Kudos to Stana Katic’s makeup artist and hair stylist, a definite improvement over last season.//

Yeah, she looked way too butch last season. Like she was actually more interested in catching criminals than attracting a chinless mystery novelist.

//The show retains it’s blend of humor/procedural from season one.//

Unfortunately for the show, yes.

House score a perfect number. wait GA and DH’s Premiere.

Big Bang make itself as good as 2.5Men. they are the best 2 sitcom.

Hm, or maybe I’m just up too late?

Sons on Sundays I can see. And it sounds like we are in agreement on keeping House/24 on Mondays.

I do think that, barring something big, Bones and Fringe will stay on Thursdays. But in my scenario they wouldn’t have to be moved. IMDb already has Fringe in the Fall down for 8 new episodes, just through early-November:

9/17, 9/24, 10/1, 10/8, 10/15, 10/22, 10/29, 11/5

and I think that they have the potential to air new episodes on:

11/12, 11/19, 12/3, 12/10, 12/17

I am sure that they will skip 11/26 and they may not elect to new episodes for all 5 of those available dates, but they might (especially if they are looking forward to this crunch in the Spring) and even if they don’t, I think that they will get through more than 9. I would think at least 11 would air and very possibly more.

And Bones is not updated as far, but could go the same way. Here’s what has been posted:

9/17, 9/24, 10/1, 10/8, 10/15

Which starts Bones off on the same schedule as Fringe and so it could easily run for 11+ Episodes in the Fall.

Meanwhile, Lie to Me is down for:
9/8, 10/5, 10/12, 10/19, 10/26,

And based on that schedule could continue on with:
11/2, 11/9, 11/16, 11/30, 12/7, 12/14

Which would mean 11 aired and 11 left.

If I’m right, Fox would have three different shows at 11 episodes available, or less, remaining for 2 Thursday slots. If that’s the case, then would Fox really want to reserve a whole three hours in the Spring from January – May for all three? That doesn’t sound like the best plan to me. And that’s part of why I’m a fan of this back-to-back plan.

Alternatively in that scenario, if there are only 11 Lie To Me’s left then Fox could place it on Friday’s back-to-back with Dollhouse which will only have 9 episodes left (if extended).

How about Dollhouse:

1/8, 1/15, 1/22, 1/29, 2/5, 2/12, 2/19, 2/26, 3/5 = 9 Episodes and then

Lie to Me:

3/12, 3/19, 3/26, 4/2, 4/9, 4/16, 4/23, 4/30, 5/7, 5/14, 5/21 = 11 Episodes and 5/28 if necessary?

I think that Fox will want to keep Past Life (and Human Target) away from Fridays unless there is no other choice (or the advance buzz for one of them really sucks). I like the idea behind Human Target/Glee and don’t see why Fox might not do it again with either Bones/Lie To Me, Fringe/Lie To Me or Dollhouse/Lie to Me.

Beyond that, I still think that it’s possible that even if Fox were not to give Dollhouse a back 9, then they still could renew it for another 13 in Fall of 2010.

And yes, Hell’s Kitchen and Kitchen Nightmares are options.

Might I suggest:

Tuesday
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Lie To Me/Past Life

Thursday
8:00 Bones/Hell’s Kitchen
9:00 Fringe/Kitchen Nightmares

Friday
8:00 Brothers & ‘Til Death
9:00 Dollhouse until mid-March and then _____________ (Anything)

Tuesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Lie to Me/Hell’s Kitchen

Wednesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Human Target/Glee

Fridays
8:00 Brothers
8:30 Til Death
9:00 Kitchen Nightamres/Past Life

FOX also has a new Hell’s Kitchen season so they could use that, but I dont see FOX airing Hell’s Kitchen on fridays. Kitchen Nightmares would likely air there to replace Dollhouse.

I dont think with Monday or Thursday FOX will make any changes. Neither Bones nor Fringe will be moved for a new series just because FOX wants to stay consistent with those series. FOX has had trouble with thursdays but this year will be different with 2 solid dramas. So using that Logic, I dont see Lie to Me being on Mondays or Thursdays in 2010. Looking at the schedule again it seems without repeats, around 10 episodes of Lie to Me will air until December. If I were FOX I’d continue with the show airing Tuesdays after Idol. Then once Lie finishes, premeire Past Life. FOX could easily keep Lie to Me in the 9:00 slot Tuesdays, and air Past Life fridays at 9 in place of Dollhouse. Theres so many different options for where to air new series but im very certain 24 and House will stay on mondays, Bones and Fringe will stay on Thursdays, Brothers and Til Death will stay on fridays, and Sundays will be the same.

Lie to Me could return on Mondays, but 24 has been a fixture there for so long that I would think that it would have to do quite well to displace it. Also, in past years Fox has liked airing 2-3 two hour blocks of 24. Leaving it on Monday would:

1) Keep it in a familiar place where audiences would be most likely to find it.

2) Allow it to displace House on occasion, but considering that House would only have a partial season left, then that strategy would work perfectly.

3) Where else would they move 22 new episodes of 24? The only other option I think possible would be Thursday, and while I think that it could work, that is a big change, especially if Bones and Fringe actually find some success there. Fox has struggled with Thursdays and even if those shows do modestly well, then I think that Fox may want to leave them where they are and try to build on their gains.

So I think that Monday’s works best for 24, with House airing when 24 doesn’t need 2 hours. I could see Fox airing Lie To Me in House’s slot after it finishes, but that’s probably not too likely imo.

I am surprised that you think that Fox might consider a one hour comedy block on Mondays. Both for the reasons I mentioned above and that Simpsons/Family Guy seem pretty entrenched on Sundays. Perhaps they might place Sons of Tucson in one of the half hour slots on Sunday, if they aren’t interested in switching out either of those two Friday shows that I mentioned?

Lie to Me could go on after Idol on Tuesdays, either before Past Life premiered or after, but considering that they also like to sometimes air Idol for 2 hour blocks then I am not certain how interested they would be in that strategy (though it might help to save Dollhouse ).

Another possibility that occurs to me is, as I said last post, doubling up 2 shows that air in both the Fall & Spring in one slot with one premiering in January and running towards mid/late-March and then the next beginning right after. Perhaps pick one between Bones and Fringe and air Lie to Me immediately after, starting in late-March in that way?

What does surprise me is that you think so many shows will only manage to air 9 or so episodes in the Fall. My belief, though I could be mistaken, is that Fall shows usually come closer to airing 13 episodes before going on their December break. If that’s the case, then I think that my strategy is not at all unreasonable, though if I’m incorrect, then it might still be possible (especially with the show premiering at the end of March getting 1 or 2 two-hour blocks), but less likely.

Maybe it’s too late for it to gain new viewers, sure. But it was a superb episode taken for what it is.

I believe FOX’s planned midseason schedule this year will look closer to their actual midseason schedule than any other year. From their current midseason schedule I believe that Sundays, Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays (8-9) will stay the same. Tuesdays may have Lie to Me initially airing after Idol and then being replaced by Past Life. While Wednesdays may have Human Target airing from January until Glee replaces it. Lie to Me will have aired around 9 episodes by December. A full season will have the series having 13 episodes. I could see some of those airing after Idol but once Past Life premieres, Lie could shift to fridays at 9. FOX could premiere Past Life at 9 on fridays and put Lie to Me after Idol Tuesdays.

So like I said before the schedule would be like this

Tuesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Lie to Me/Past Life

Wednesdays
8:00 American Idol
9:00 Human Target/Glee

These shows will likely share the same slot however, its very possible one could be moved to fridays.

My main hesitation is that I really think that Fox is looking at Friday’s differently now (or at least they are hoping to). In the same way that Sundays seem to be treated as a a unique night that is devoted to comedy. Again, I could be wrong or the ratings may turn out SO bad that Fox rethinks their position, but for now that is what I believe.

Meanwhile, to try to do my best to guess what Fox might do, here’s what I believe to be their current Spring schedule:

House
24

American Idol
Past Life

American Idol
Human Target/Glee

Bones
Fringe

Brothers/’Til Death
Dollhouse

As a comedy, I’m guessing that Sons of Tucson would be a natural fit for whichever of the two 8:00 Friday 1/2 hour shows does the worst.

Based on the above schedule, the back 9 of Lie to Me looks to be the only show that needs to find a home. Though perhaps I am overlooking something?

If I were Fox then this would be a good problem to have and what would make the most sense for me for me is to take those shows that only have 9 more episodes remaining and pair them, so that the back 9 of one would start in January and run to mid-March and then the back of another would take over and go from late March to the end of May/beginning of June.

Besides veterans 24, House, and Bones…here are other dramas besides Dollhouse

Fringe
Lie to Me
Glee
Human Target
Past Life

With all of these shows likely to be midseason schedule. How could FOX keep Dollhouse? Maybe order additional episodes in the friday slot, but with so many dramas on the schedule (and all performing better than Dollhouse) it would have to be axed. This scenario was like last year where around early October I tried to figure out between all of ABC’s sophomore dramas, which one would be axed (Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone) turns out 3 were axed. Last year beginning in the fall FOX didnt have any new well performing dramas, besides Fringe, which is why they renewed Terminator for a full year.

Also House does well where ever its put. Terminator and Prison Break did horribly on mondays.

Now if every other drama from this fall (House, Lie to Me, Bones, Fringe, Glee) is expected to return (as well as 24 and new dramas Human Target and Past Life) How can they afford renew Dollhouse.

I like, but don’t love, the show and would like to see it continue. This first week doesn’t look great, but it’s not a failure (imo) either. I’m guessing that much will depend on how it performs in subsequent weeks. If it is able to retain this audience then I think that it will be extended at least through the end of the Season, but if it can’t, then it will definitely be in jeopardy.

I still think that it’s too early to tell. I felt that it was a given that he would do best last week up against very weak competition and I’d guess that he would do worst this week, when I’m sure that many people are sampling the premiers among his competition.

Some people won’t enjoy those new shows and will most likely turn back to Jay in the weeks to come. I don’t know how many, but for me that’s the big question regarding that show.

I’m not surprised by those numbers and anticipate them getting worse next week. I am sure that some people checked in to the premier, but did not see enough to bring them back.

As with many others, I used to be a fan, but have been underwhelmed for awhile. Still, I did check out last nights 2 hour episode. Based only on that, I felt that it wasn’t the worst that I have seen and that there was room to think that it might improve. But then I stepped back and realized that that was also how I felt with the premier last year (which didn’t work out imo).

The two biggest weaknesses for me are intertwined and those are 1) That very little of what we saw last night doesn’t seem a rehash of something that the show has already done before. 2) Some (maybe many) of these characters just don’t seem interesting to me any more and it feels very forced to continue to bring them together.

In assessing the current situation then they have:

- Claire going to college
- Parkman acting very unlikable and starting to lose his mind
- Sylar taunting Parkman
- Nathan acting crazy (because he’s really Sylar)
- Angela worrying over Nathan
- Peter not caring about anything other than an obsessive mission
- Hiro in trouble again as now it looks like he’s dying
- Ando not doing much of anything important
- Tracy killing some people on a deranged and obsessive mission until she suddenly is convinced to knock it off.
- Noah. A lot of angst there, but at least he actually did something.
- Some interesting new characters like Samuel Sullivan.

At least they eliminated a few characters from Seasons past, such as Suresh, but I’d argue that they need to go much much further. Just on paper, how many of those plotlines sound legitimately interesting?

Not very many imo and I’d recommend taking the new characters, a SMALL group of the existing ones, Noah and 1-3 of the 9 others and fire the rest. I’m sure that that would save some money (and at his site NickC mentioned that one of the things that could help the show is reducing it’s expensive cast), but more importantly, it would tighten the focus of the show up by a heck of a lot and force the writers to try to think up some new stories instead of continually recycling the same crap.

At this point, I don’t know if many (or any) who left would be willing to give it another chance, but at least that way they could try to stop the losses amongst the remaining viewers.

I am DARN glad that it didn’t premier last night. In that timeslot I think that it wouldn’t have done much better than Heroes did.

I still don’t see Dollhouse’s cancelation being as much of a lock as you do.

As I’ve stated before, I think that other factors (such as the fact that it is so much less expensive and that everything that Fox sticks on Fridays fails miserably) legitimately will contribute to the decision of whether to cancel or renew it.

In a recent post I saw that Nick C believes that it has a chance of renewal too, and based on my limited experience he seems to know what he’s talking about.

It still could be canceled if ratings are terrible, which might happen. But bringing in so many genre actors, such as half the cast of BSG, Ray Wise, etc may be enough to keep it from losing any viewers.

Imo, the odds are 50-50 and I’m very much waiting to see what happens in it’s first 2 weeks. I would also guess that Fox is wary that anything else that they might stick on Fridays will wind up bringing in numbers that are no better and that may affect their decision making.

My guess is

Castle will do as good or better than Boston Legal (8-9 million)
The Forgotten will do better than Eli Stone (7-9) million
Eastwick will do at the same level or worse than Dirty Sexy Money (4-6 million)

Either you have a vendetta against Fillion or you sound like you do.

If you don’t mean to sound that way then it might be worthwhile to reassess your posting style in regards to him.

If you do mean to sound that way, then you are quite effective in conveying your intentions.

But it doesn’t have to be good to get decent ratings. I think it’ll continue to get the same middle of the road ratings it always has and will probably be with us for a while.