The new 2009-2010 broadcast prime-time TV season has begun!
Many readers may be wondering where some of their favorite ongoing posts from last season are.
Here's a run down of when your old favorites will be back:
Renew/Cancel Index's Shows Most Likely To Be Cancelled & Renewed - Returns Tuesday, September 29
Season to Date Network TV Ratings -Returns Tuesday, September 29
Broadcast Network 2009-10 vs. 2008-9 Season Ratings -Returns Tuesday, September 29
Most DVR Viewed Broadcast TV Shows - Not certain, we may get data for the new CW shows on September 29, or our data may not resume until we get shows for the current week, which we'd expect on October 13.
You can always check the schedule of our regular posts by clicking on the More Ratings link in the white bar above.
Thanks, can’t wait!
Me neither. Love this part!
Yay! The Index is coming back for a third year!
Now that this is coming back, I’ll be checking this website again!
(Here’s hoping 90210 is in the red and that the Good Wife is in the green!)
yay….me luv charts.
Excellent! I consult the index on a regular basis now.
Unrelated question…
TVBTN isn’t going to be ratted out again for placing primetime ratings in chart form again, right? I figured I’d ask since I saw Monday’s numbers were put back into handy-dandy chart form like they used to be.
Bruce, It really wasn’t a case of ratting out, but we think we’re fine now.
That’s good to hear, Bill. I thought the whole issue was silly anyway.
What does everyone think are the early candidates for cancelled shows? Just on the ratings so far not predictions about how a show looks.
By the way are you going to add anything to the calculation rather than the several notes, it showed friday nights and 30 minute comedies didn’t go along with the index
Melrose Place to be axed
HEROES and MELROSE PLACE look like real contenders…
MELROSE PLACE may just be switched with SMALLVILLE on Fridays.
The Beautiful Life is most likely to get axed before the year ends
Nick C – That switch will NEVER happen.
Forg – I agree but episodes will be burned off.
Here’s my list of cancellations
ABC – Hank, The Middle, Eastwick, (by Novemember at the earliest)
CBS – Three Rivers (likely after a few eps)
CW – The Beautiful Life (by december, with all episodes airing)
FOX – Dollhouse (by December)
NBC – Mercy (by December)
Renewals
ABC – Flashforward, Modern Family, Cougar Town (Maybe)
CBS – NCIS LA, Accidentally on Purpose, The Good Wife
CW – Melrose Place. Vampire Diaries
FOX – Glee, Brothers, Cleveland Show
NBC – Community, Trauma
In ABC’s case, Hank and The Middle could be replaced by November with holiday specials. The Middle is more likely to get additional episodes though. Eastwick could run out all episodes by December (If ABC allows it) but could be replaced (ABC should NOT rerun the series at any time). Flashforward, Modern Family and Cougar Town look safe.
For CBS, Three Rivers looks like the only series to be in danger. It has a lot of competition and could bring down Cold Case. CBS always axes a fall drama after a few episodes so Three Rivers looks to be it. NCIS: LA, Accidentally on Purpose, and The Good Wife all look safe.
The CW is easy. Out of their three dramas, The Beautiful Life premiered the weakest, and while it will air all episodes, the show will likely be replaced in January by Life UnXpected. Melrose Place and Vampire Diaries should stay in their respective slots throughout the season.
With FOX, all of their new shows seem safe (even Brothers). The ONLY series on their fall schedule in danger is Dollhouse which should be gone by December due to low ratings. The only reason I see brothers as safe is despite probable low ratings, If numbers are higher than its lead out Til Death, it will get renewed. Glee and The Cleveland Show have already gotten a full year.
NBC’s Mercy seems to be the weak link of their schedule. With Trauma and Community getting full years, Mercy could end up airing all episodes by December and then end up getting replaced. NBC’s schedule is interesting in that several series are scheduled to be replaced by midseason (Now that 10pm is gone) Heroes and Trauma are scheduled to be replaced by Chuck and Day One and Mercy is scheduled to be replaced by Parenthood. In this case unless ratings are really horrible, I dont see any of NBC’s new series being “Pulled”.
Any comments on my cancellations. I think I’m pretty accurate.
Here are some 50/50 series that can either be axed or renewed
ABC – The Forgotten, The Middle
CBS – The Good Wife
CW – The Beautiful Life
NBC – Mercy
ABC could give The Middle additonal eps or they could axe it. The series will get low ratings but it depends if ABC feels the show could improve. The Forgotten is also 50/50 and depends on whether or not ABC would rather replace it with a midseaon drama.
The Good Wife could go either way but im 90% sure CBS will give it around 18 episodes for the year.
TBL is leaning toward cancellation but if The CW really likes the show they could give it additional eps. However if it continues to drop in viewers, the show will be axed.
Mercy is leaning more to be axed but like i’ve said before it will neither get pulled nor additional eps, it will just run out of eps.
While we are making our guesses, here are mine:
Cancellations:
ABC-
Hank
The Middle (will probably run a full season without being renewed)
The Forgotten
Eastwick
V (Will run a full season without being picked up for a 2nd)
Scrubs
Better Off Ted (as sad as this will make me)
CBS-
Three Rivers
Gary Unmarried
The New Adventures of Old Christine
NBC-
Mercy (possibly by November)
Heroes (Will run the full season, but will be it’s last)
CW-
(The entire network)…..j/k
TBL
Melrose Place
FOX-
Brothers
Till Death
Dollhouse
(I’m thinking FOX may go the Are You Smarter…. route on Fridays)
Renewals:
ABC-
FlashForward (even if the ratings are low they will be the most patient with this one. They want this to be the replacement for Lost and it will most likely get Lost’s timeslot next year)
Modern Family
Cougar Town
CBS-
NCIS LA
Medium (if only to piss off NBC)
NBC-
Leno (as much as it kills me to say it)
Community (Will probably get a Full Season order in the next 2 or 3 weeks)
Trauma (If it can perform better then Heroes did this week, which isn’t a big hurdle to jump)
CW-
The Vampire Diaries (I’m surprised this hasn’t already be picked up for a full season)
FOX-
Glee
50/50 Chances:
ABC-
Castle (As long as it stays at a 2.0 or better in the Demos it should be enough to make ABC happy)
CBS-
Accidentally on Purpose (If this slips below a 3.0 in the demo it’s gone. CBS has pretty high expectations for Monday night comedies. The only thing that may save it with lower demos is the fact that CBS produces it)
The Goodwife (I see this doing well with total viewers but not exactly winning over the 18-49 demo. If I had to choose without seeing the show I’d say it will get renewed but I’m like 51-49 on that one)
CW-
90210 (But this is the CW so as long as 2 Squirrels and a rat watch it they will renew it)
NBC-
Parks and Recreation (However NBC loves this show, so it may be allowed low ratings)
Parenthood (This could really go either way, if they can get Helen Hunt to sign on to replace Maura Tierney it could be a hit in NBC standards)
Chuck (With my guess {and it’s only a guess} on production costs for Chuck vs Heroes I would set the bar lower for Chuck, so if Chuck can pull Heroes numbers or even slightly lower I think it will see another season)
I’m looking forward to the RCI coming back too because it’s one of the main reasons that we all come to TVBTN.
What will be interesting for me this year are two things:
1 – something that will most likely be called “the Dollhouse clause” because the big guy himself alone knows how that got renewed last year, apart from that the previous RCI held up very well and the surprises could probably be chalked up to the current global economic problems.
2 – how the brand new ABC comedy block on Wednesdays fares against the near enough long established CBS comedy block on Mondays.
Regarding point 2, with the CBS comedy block there’s only one new comedy (Accidentally on Purpose) and if that fails, there’s an established one waiting in the wings (3 year veteran, Rules of Engagement). But if any of the ABC comedies fail, what then? And what if they all fail? Unlikely I know because Modern Family and Cougar Town have had positive press but Hank will probably be the first casualty of the new season and maybe The Middle is on the bubble? In all honesty, I expect ABC to lose Hank quickly as nobody has got anything positive to say about it, which for Kelsey Grammer must be nothing short of a disaster because until recently, the guy was comedy and ratings gold with Cheers and Frasier. What’s gone wrong for him? Can he ever become the king of sitcoms again?
Tommy – Do you mean for full seasons or for the next season in general? Because if you mean for next season than I agree with all your ABC’s. However they could keep Scrubs again just because. I agree with all your renewals as well. Flashforward, Cougar Town and Modern Family are all strong contenders for a third year as is Castle.
Three Rivers will be axed after a few episodes, NCIS LA and Medium will return for 10-11, and The Good Wife will likely last the full season, but probably wont get a second. Accidentally is 50/50 for next year.
I agree that Dollhouse, Til Death and Brothers will likely all be gone by 10-11. Unless FOX wants to keep Til Death for another go around.
90210 will return next season however and Melrose as well. Not because of ratings but just because CW insists on keeping the franchise fresh. Vampire would liekly return for another season while TBL is a lock to be axed.
Mercy will run out all of its episodes, but will be axed by May. Community and Trauma would likely both get full seasons and could both get second seasons. Parks will already get a full season but with 5 million viewers I doubt it will make it to a third.
Its still way too early to predict 10-11 but those are my best guesses. However what does everyone think about the first cancellations in general?
Nick C.
You stated last season that the index didn’t really work on Friday and Saturday nights. Why?
puredieselbc: there’s some discounting for Friday and Saturday because not as many people watch TV (particularly, broadcast network TV) on those nights.