An interesting chart showing DVR subscription trends from Magna Insights:
The estimated 50.7 million DVR households for 2014 is about 44% of the current 114.9 million US TV households.
Here's some additional data on DVR usage and ownership from the latest Magna Quarterly On-Demand report. The entire report is big (you can likely download the entire report here soon, but the latest is currently not yet available).
DVR PLAYBACK AND TV CONSUMPTION UPDATE
Playback of recorded TV on DVRs as % of total TV consumption appears to be rising – but reasons are unclear
• New adopters of DVRs may not spend as much time playing back content on their DVRs compared to people we would describe as “power-users” (past research indicated that ~30% of DVR users account for ~70% of aggregated DVR consumption), who likely were among the first to acquire DVRs. It should follow that DVR use will not increase as rapidly as penetration rises. Although there was a decline in DVR consumption within DVR homes between 4Q06 and 4Q07, in recent periods, this trend has reversed. Changes are modest (falling within a statistically insignificant range), but a few factors may explain them:
• More years of owning DVRs causes all audiences to increase reliance on DVRs
• More years of owning DVRs causes some audiences to increase reliance on DVRs
• Programming strategies produce more “DVR-worthy” content which causes increased DVR consumption
• The true answer (or answers) behind live TV erosion are difficult to know with certainty. However, we can say with certainty that total DVR consumption is small in total. By 2011 – 10 years after widespread availability – DVRs will be in approximately 35% of TV homes. With less than 10% total-day DVR consumption, less than 4% of total universe TV consumption will occur on DVRs. But over the same 10 years, TV consumed per person and the US population will have increased by more than 10%each. The cumulative effect is a significant increase in absolute measures of live TV consumption despite the presence of DVRs
• This reinforces our view that DVRs do not necessarily negatively impact the TV industry. Instead, they contribute to viewer attachment to TV and in turn allow it to remain a primary marketing vehicle for the foreseeable future
I’m surprised it’s not higher already. DVRs are awesome.
btw, Nielsen has them in 36.16 million homes at the start of the 2009-2010 season so it’s at 31.5% already (and I think in terms of reach, that’s already a bit more than 1/3rd of P2+).
Yes, in retrospect I should have headlined another year’s estimate. I have changed the headline to 2014
I got my first Tivo in October, 2001 and now have five, so I believe it is fair to say DVRs have changed my TV viewing habits. Also everyone that has spent anytime watching TV with me has been sold on and several have gotton them for theirselves. I have loaned one out for a few days and they never to give them back, and when i do ask for them back they refuse to be with out one to use.
If everyone get DVRs the leadin numbers will likely change as folks schedule their viewing in advance and are not necessary influenced by what is before or after chosen programs.
Have you seen any effects of DVRs concerning leadin yet?
Not to mention what happens when the next wave of technology VOD/internet streamed tv replaces DVR’s, why use a DVR when you can get your favorite tv show just by pressing a few buttons ? Individual scheduling, no lead ins, I guess shows actually have to live or die on their own merits not based on lead ins or possible ‘death slots’
@NN until there is a viable way to monetize these new media to equivalent revenue streams, there will be no wholesale movement away from DVRs. Content providers will throttle this move until the business is sorted out which will need to be hand in glove with the cbl/sat providers and technology makers to allow the requisite guide/search/pricing/billing issues to be resolved. In the meantime, there will be dabbling such as iTunes and hulu etc. But the DVR will be a round for a good long time.
Just my 2c