Update 9/26: you can check out the preliminary ratings for the season two premiere.
Obviously four and a half short months ago I didn't think I'd be eating any crow for Say Goodbye to Dollhouse.
But it turned out to be a pretty big crow and I've been chewing on it for the last four months, and paying penance by posting this poster in every Friday report for the last month (and making it my Twitter background for the last month):
But my penance is just about over, and now, finally, Friday September 25 at 9pm is upon us and the madness begins again.
Ratings expectations
I'm sure there will be a lot of attention on Dollhouse's ratings and its DVR numbers. But if last year taught me anything, it's that paying attention to Dollhouse's ratings might not matter much in terms of whether the show is renewed or canceled.
I've heard all the arguments about why it won't be renewed after the 13 episodes air, and I've heard the arguments about why the renewal is a certainty. But the bottom line is this: I won't be surprised by anything barring massively worse ratings than last year. I don't expect massively worse ratings than last year.
I won't be surprised if it loses two tenths of a ratings point with adults 18-49 and is back next September anyway, and I won't be particularly surprised if it it gains two tenths of a ratings point with adults 18-49 and isn't back next year.
Why did FOX renew Dollhouse?
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, and I don't believe FOX renewed the show for 13 episodes simply to screw with TV by the Numbers, but that reason strikes me as just as plausible as any of the explanations for renewal that I've heard. OK, that's a lie.
The most plausible reason I have is FOX really likes Whedushku (Joss Whedon and Eliza Dushku), and sometimes, especially perhaps on Friday nights "we like you" might be enough of a reason. Especially when you're not all that expensive. Also, FOX seems intent on sending the message that it isn't throwing in the towel on Friday nights by throwing on unscripted shows or repeats of their dramas.
FOX may yet throw in that towel, but I wouldn't look for a towel toss anytime soon. Barring massive ratings drops I think the one thing you can count on is seeing all 13 episodes of Dollhouse. Whether you'll see more either via a back nine pickup or a renewal for another season of 13 episodes next year is a story still waiting to be told.
Please note: I'm not a Dollhouse basher. When it comes to the show itself, I've seen every episode that has aired and even one that didn't air -- Epitaph One -- which was actually my favorite episode. But here, we look at ratings, and the ratings for Dollhouse simply weren't that good.
The DVR effect is real, but...
A lot of talk has been made to the DVR effect and how when you factored in all of Dollhouse's DVR viewing the #s weren't that bad for a Friday night. And technically, that's true. But Dollhouse aired no repeats, so it does compare favorably to the season averages for say, Wife Swap and Supernanny, which did air repeats and had a lot less DVR viewing overall. It still got dusted by Ghost Whisperer even with Ghost Whisperer repeats factored in, but I don't think FOX was ever expecting Dollhouse to best Ghost Whisperer.
Dollhouse's loyal DVR viewership -- and I'm factoring out the DVR viewers who watched the show the same night -- consistently added about a million overall viewers to the average and about .5 of an 18-49 ratings point to the Live+SD numbers we (and everyone else) regularly report. So when you see the overnight ratings for Dollhouse, you don't need to wait weeks for the Live+7 numbers to guess that you can just add around a million viewers and a .5 to its 18-49 rating. So if it gets 3.8 million viewers and a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, you can pretty much figure it will be around 4.8 million and a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating when the Live+7 numbers come out. That might not actually wind up being the case, but it should serve as a good proxy to occupy you during the lag for the Live+7 reporting.
My best guess is that if it averages a 1.4-1.5 adults 18-49 rating in Live+SD numbers, FOX should be OK with it. But keep in mind, last year in order to get to those averages it premiered with a 2.0 live+SD adults 18-49 rating and ended with a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating.
This year, the competition is stiffer
Dollhouse will face off ultimately against scripted dramas Medium, Southland and Ugly Betty though for the first couple of Fridays it will be repeats of new ABC shows on ABC, and Dateline episodes on NBC (edit: and Stargate Universe on Syfy).
No polls, but
I'd include a poll for you to guess the ratings for the season two premiere, but I'm wary of gaming from fans of a certain show that used to air on FOX on Fridays that is no longer airing on FOX on Fridays (or any other day). But you can feel free to post your predictions in the comments. No prizes, just chest-thumping rights.
My prediction is 3.3 million and a 1.3 adults 18-49 rating.
Edit: I'm taking the opportunity to take the over on Robert and will go with a 1.4 demo rating, 3.5 million viewers. - Bill
and it begins…
*rolls eyes*
You know, when the number is so small, it’s almost boring to try to guess what it’ll be. The logical choices fall within a range of 0.9-1.6. I’m going to go with 1.1.
We’ve all analyzed, bickered, laughed, and/or threw up our hands about the Dollhouse renewal and its numbers. It’s been a lot of fun so far.
For me, the bottom line is that I’m glad it’s still on the air and will enjoy it for however long it lasts.
As for its stiffer competition (Ugly Betty, Southland, Medium), I’m not ready to count Southland among the shows that will eat into Dollhouse’s viewership. The viewers were leaving that show in droves for the last few episodes of the season and I doubt people will follow it to Fridays.
I didn’t watch this show last seasoned because I figured it would be cancelled ASAP. After the mysterious renewal, I watched every episode and will definitely be tuning in this season.
I don’t think I’m special… so I predict an increase over last year.
On a side note, the advertising campaign for its return is much bigger than I anticipated. There was a 30 second spot for it on Fringe tonight.
I think the show will get 3-4 million if its lucky. I know everyone is expecting a full season renewal, but theres no way thats gonna happen. With so many shows doing well for FOX, and their already packed midseason scheduled, theres no way, we’ll see Dollhouse on it.
That was a nice read Robert; very synergy-y.
Oh yeah, guesses: 1.8
Oh, I almost forgot…
3.5 million w/ a 1.5
“Everyone” expects a full season renewal? Wha? There is like maybe 3 people expecting that.
Fox still has Elisha under contract, so they need to use her. I think she signed a contract with them after Tru Calling, but I remember her talking about on a late night show a few years ago.
I can hardly wait for Friday’s ratings to come out on Saturday.
“I know everyone is expecting a full season renewal, but theres no way thats gonna happen. With so many shows doing well for FOX, and their already packed midseason scheduled, theres no way, we’ll see Dollhouse on it.”
This is on Friday night, so it isn’t like that’s their best day.
I’m surprised nobody’s guessed eleventy billion in the 18-49 yet.
buffywrestling – well everyone that has commented on me about Dollhousethinks the series will be renewed. I think it will be axed by December, but Im still anticipating the friday ratings on saturday.
I’ll go with 1.3.
Uhh, well I didn’t realize that was Robert’s guess, so how about 1.2 then?
I’ll be generous…4.1 million w/ a 1.4 18-49.
Yay, I hope it premiers WELL, I like the show alot, Also cannot wait for Ghost whisperer and I know I wont have to worry about their numbers.
I’m predicting a substantial drop in ratings from last season for Dollhouse. Dollhouse is a SciFi show and it will be competing with Stargate Universe in the same time slot. Plus it doesn’t have Terminator as its lead-in, which helped its ratings last season. They dropped a lot after Terminator ended and Prison Break took over the lead in. Instead they now have as lead-ins 2 comedies – one of which is new and neither are SciFi genre (I don’t see the same audience being interested in the comedies as Dollhouse).
How much further can it really drop, Carol? At the end of last season, it was around 3 million viewers. I doubt it will fall much lower than that.
Vader, since there are no prizes other than chest thumping, it’s ok to share!