Castle Goes From The Bubble To The Crosshairs

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Featured

Written By

September 29th, 2009

castle

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Castle (p) 0.69
the forgotten (p) 0.78
Eastwick 0.90
Brothers & Sisters (S) 0.90
FlashForward 1.20
Modern Family 1.26
Cougar Town 1.32
Desperate Housewives 1.41
Grey's Anatomy 2.01

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In May, Castle was on the bubble for renewal, now it's in the crosshairs for cancellation. It was the worst performing scripted show for ABC during premiere week this season. the forgotten is also at significant risk for being canceled by the end of the season based on its first week's results. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and Brothers & Sisters might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.

Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:

  • (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.

What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

 
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