Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Castle (p) | 0.69 |
| the forgotten (p) | 0.78 |
| Eastwick | 0.90 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S) | 0.90 |
| FlashForward | 1.20 |
| Modern Family | 1.26 |
| Cougar Town | 1.32 |
| Desperate Housewives | 1.41 |
| Grey's Anatomy | 2.01 |
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In May, Castle was on the bubble for renewal, now it's in the crosshairs for cancellation. It was the worst performing scripted show for ABC during premiere week this season. the forgotten is also at significant risk for being canceled by the end of the season based on its first week's results. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and Brothers & Sisters might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Wow. Didn’t expect Castle to be lower than the forgotten.
I think “The Forgotten” will be right there with “Castle” after its second episode.
I’d like to disagree, but after seeing the last two episodes it’s predicted fate is not far-fetched. =( Not that I won’t continue supporting the show as much as I can.
Is this the new format? No 18-49 average listed whatsoever? /shakes fist at Nielsen
It is early, but:
A) Eastwick had terrible decay inside the hour. Not a good sign.
B) Forgotten also decayed during hour, but less.
I wouldn’t put money on either making it to 2010. Castle, on the other hand, just might, as its ratings are stable (albeit low).
?(p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
LOL! Worst Week and 11th Hour’s cancelations convinced you, didn’t they
Is “the forgotten” really officially spelled that way? Ugh.
Holly, pummeling Bill in October, November, December, and January, didn’t produce much change, but I’m pretty sure by February or March he was on the plum timeslot bandwagon
@Tom, others, yes, the 18-49 ratings numbers have been removed. This way all the posts for the season can be browsed. If we kept the Nielsen ratings in the posts themselves, we’d have to limit browsing to 2 weeks worth.
Holly, “LOL! Worst Week and 11th Hour’s cancelations convinced you, didn’t they”
I am not immune to learning. Resistant, yes, immune, no.
So, why haven’t we heard from Phisher yet? Isn’t that Nathan Fillion’s biggest fan?
***Runs and turns off the Sarcasm***
Poor Nathan Filion… Great actor, but keeps getting cancelled
Isn’t it a little early to tell for some of those shows? Flash Forward, Cougartown, and Modern Family have only aired a single episode.
Castle has aired more than a few though, so predictions about that one are probably kosher. Poor Fillion. I want him to do well in his career but on the other hand, Castle really wasn’t that good.
the Firefly cast sure is cursed i mean Gina Torres alone took three ABC shows down last season guesting on Dirty sEXY MONEY, PUSHING DAISIES and Eli Stone this season she’s already booked on Gossip Girl and FlashForward
Ugh! All ABC’s 10pm shows Sun – Wed are at the bottom (well I guess top) of the list! The only one not there is Thursday’s Practice and that hasn’t premiered yet! Friday is already a news magazine and Saturday football, so they have nothing scripted working out at 10. I think alternating 20/20 and Primetime might be all they go with at 10 next fall and maybe leave Thursdays alone. Unless they have better luck at midseason it could happen – wouldn’t shock me.
Brothers & Sisters I think will be ok for one more year though – ABC’s overall average should drop after this week with less DWTS and Grey’s, so even if B&S ratings hold they should bump up a little relative to the other shows. Eastwick I think will slide into the red zone in a week or two.
one showing and Brother and Sisters are already red? there is always hope that it comes back to life
I would have been shocked with castle but after last nights show I’m not. It just didn’t seem like castle last night. I just hope some how they can pull up the ratings and stay on as I think it can be a very good show. The forgotten I thought was a fresher type of show in there week. Fresh seems to kill a series if they won’t stick by it and give it a little time.
hmmmmm
not counting saturday night football or 20/20
that’s 4 out 5 of ABC’s 10pm slots
Hello Jimmy Kimmel at 10?! lol
@ usedtolovecoco, Early predictions ‘R Us, but ratings and the Indexes change, come back and see each week’s numbers!
Come on Debbie Downers. Castle’s not gone yet. There’s such worse shows on TV, sad it hasn’t found an audience yet … but we can still hope.
all of these spins are making me ill and thats why i dont know what to watch anymore