Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F) | 0.57 |
| Cold Case | 0.67 |
| Medium (F) | 0.67 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.70 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.73 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.73 |
| The Good Wife | 0.98 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (p) | 1.05 |
| The Mentalist | 1.14 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.14 |
| CSI:NY | 1.27 |
| CSI | 1.30 |
| CSI: Miami | 1.36 |
| Criminal Minds | 1.40 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | 1.40 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.43 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.49 |
| NCIS | 1.52 |
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Cold Case and Without A Trace presumably battled it out for the last drama renewal from CBS last spring. Cold Case was the winner of that fight, but is immediately looking like it's overstayed its welcome. (WAT fans stifle your whining, my guess is that the same would've happened to that show). No other CBS shows seem in obvious danger yet. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are low once again, but what's new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I see Cold Case and Gary Unmarried cancelled and Old Christine renewed.
I think, despite the price tag, CBS canceled the wrong show in the spring when they chose Cold Case over Without A Trace.
Christine survived this year, making it even more likely CBS gets a sweetheart deal next year to get it to syndication numbers. I’d put it at more likely than (in decreasing chances) Gary, Numbers, Cold Case, and AoP to see 2011.
I’m fuzzy about the T notation. Does it solely refer to first-run airing, like Friday Night Lights? Because (IIRC) Medium’s producers get something like 1 Mil per new episode made, from Lifetime.
Bruce-
I agree with you completely. I thought Without a Trace had many more things going for it than Cold Case.
I’m fuzzy about the T notation. Does it solely refer to first-run airing, like Friday Night Lights? Because (IIRC) Medium’s producers get something like 1 Mil per new episode made, from Lifetime.
Well, by that all 3 CSIs, Criminal Minds, NCIS, House, Bones, etc., etc. would all have a T since they all get over $1 mill/episode for syndication.
I’m pretty sure the T is just for situations like Friday Night Lights
i think T should be just for shows like Flashpoint,Persons Unknown and Friday Night Lights which get outside funding
@Tom, yes the “T” notation means the production cost of new episodes is being shared/subsidized. My understanding was that Lifetime had done a forward syndication deal on Medium, but if they are, in fact, subsidizing current production I should note that.
I freak’n love cold case!! Please DO NOT cancel it!!
except for the Friday shows, I see EVERYTHING under, and including, Accidentally on Purpose gone…
CBS’ list early looks very similar to last year with almost nothing in danger. Cold Case definitely in last season, it was almost gone in May. Numbers might be in danger if it continues to be the weak link on Fridays I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets canned in May, but definitely could be renewed.
How long b4 TBBT and 2.5 Men swap slots… seems like Bang should be at 9 as it appears to be their #1 comedy. I think CSI should be slid to 10pm on Thursdays by next season unless it can hold or bounce back some. It’s in it’s 10th year after all and the other CSI’s do well at 10, and maybe Mentalist could do better at 9. Too early to tell on Mentalist, but I do think this is CSI’s last season airing Thu @ 9.
I think this is definetly be the last season of Cold Case and 50/50 on Numb3rs, I do agree that this may be the last season of CSI in the 9pm slot unless ratings improve. I doubt CBS would end it now as it still got good figures and it’s CBS’ cashcow.
I hope Bill or Robert are prepared to be inunated with Alex O’Loughlin fans when we have the Three Rivers ratings on Monday.
How crazy would it be if CBS moved it’s Monday comedies to Thursday next season? The time might be ripe. CSI/Survivor are struggling, and The Mentalist ain’t no game-changer yet. NBC is on its last legs that night. Meanwhile, Fox and CW are picking up sizable chunks of viewers in different demos.
Would CBS be so bold?
@Jim, “Would CBS be so bold?”
Regardless of the subject of that question, the answer would be no. In this case, definitely no.
Yes it is, they could have kept the Unit, without a trace or 11th hr and they go with cold case. But if your CBS you can pick and choose they just picked wrong
CSM – CBS is not in a hurry to switch 2.5 men and big bang because they know people tune into watch 2.5 men wherever it is and those people stay after but what are the chances of those same people tuning in at 9 for big bang then men? I mean at least for a season they need to keep it at 9:30. probably next season we might see it at 9.
That’s just my theory
Don’t be so quick to judge. Cold Case is down from last season’s premiere, but it is the average ratings over the course of a season that matter. The fall means football preempting Sunday night shows. There’s also a new time slot.
Furthermore, while your thesis of the all important 18-49 numbers suggests Cold Case and shows like it are always losers, there may be many other factors involved in deciding what shows stay and what shows go.
@ Tony – good point, I didn’t think they would do it immediately, CBS needs to make sure it’s a real trend or pattern. I just wasn’t sure if they would stick with it all season long, but CBS tends to stick with the status quo so maybe it wouldn’t be until next September at the earliest they would swap and put TBBT @ 9.
Criminal Minds is the only show I watch on CBS. As long as that returns, so will I to CBS.
Get rid of the wed comedy block.
bad shows with mediocre ratings.
At some point CBS is going to have to re-evaluate their strategy for the second comedy block, right? Its become the weak link in their otherwise strong line-up so eventually something has to give… Or maybe not. If they’re really serious about a second comedy block though maybe they should take something from Monday’s block and air it Wednesday instead?
On another note the question for CBS this year has surely got to be how much bigger can NCIS get!