Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Dollhouse (F) | 0.32 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.36 |
| Fringe | 0.74 |
| Bones | 0.91 |
| Glee | 1.00 |
| American Dad | 1.17 |
| The Simpsons | 1.39 |
| The Cleveland Show | 1.59 |
| Family Guy | 1.68 |
| House | 2.17 |
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In the reality distortion field that surrounds Dollhouse do its continuing terrible ratings even matter for its chances of being canceled? At some point they have to, and I don't think its likely we will see Dollhouse or Brothers on the Fox schedule next season.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Dollhouse will definitely be cancelled. Brothers is 50/50 because of possible Till Death situation, but I see it also being canned. Fringe will likely be renewed.
i think Dollhouse might be renewed for the same reasons FOX renews Til Death dirt cheap scripted shows are profitable
I’m not worried about Fringe. If things get too tough for it on Thursdays, they’ll just move it to Monday or Tuesday.
I know it’s a minority opinion, but Lie to Me is the X-factor for Dollhouse. Fox could kill Dollhouse and air Lie on Fridays… or see the budget difference between the two and keep Dollhouse.
“I don’t think its likely we will see Dollhouse or Brothers on the Fox schedule next season”
Err, are we using the index for 10/11 renewals or 09/10 backorders?
I expect the Cleveland show to slide down the index throughout the season, but it’s still likely a lock for renewal. I’m concerned about American Dad! because it has something of a “plum” timeslot behind family guy. Since KOTH left it’s the “weak link” of Fox’s Sunday Nights.
Err, are we using the index for 10/11 renewals or 09/10 backorders?
The index is for 10/11 renewals, but new shows particularly low on the index are unlikely to get backorders.
Fox throw Fringe to die on Thursdays lol
I think that JJ Abrams has enough clout to protect Fringe if need be.
Maybe they should switch Lie and Fringe
Lie to Me is a VERY expensive show for FOX if it came to Dollhouse vs Lie to Me i think Dollhouse would win
The index is for 10/11 renewals, but new shows particularly low on the index are unlikely to get backorders.
I know that, but I’m trying to bait them into predictions
I don’t think you should have put the (S) for syndication next to American Dad. It’s already for sure that they’re putting it through a complete fifth season, and the finale will be the 100th episode. Its renewal chances are unaffected by the syndication.
johnthemon
Cleveland show has already been renewed for a second season
first season is 22 episodes
second season is 13, so far
Simpsons have been renewed too
@ Tar, you are deluding yourself. Just thought you should know. Lie to Me can’t be that much more expensive than Dollhouse.
@ Derrick, I know that it already has a second season, I never said it wouldn’t get renewed. I’m sorry if my statements were confusing. I only meant that it won’t hold a 1.59 on the index throughout the season.
johnthemon, that makes sense on American Dad.
Tim Roth (Lie to Me) – $250000 an episode = just one cast member’s per episode salary in season 1 (might be more this season)
@ Tar, each of the six members of the simpsons cast get $500,000 per episode. That’s $3,000,000 per episode just for the main cast.
@johnthemon
Good point, but you have to consider that said cast members didn’t make that in their second season on the show. Just like the Friends cast and Seinfeld cast didn’t have high salaries until later on in the shows lifespan. Lie to Me is in its fledgling stages still, by definition.
Are you really trying to compare salaries of The Simpsons vs. Lie to Me? One show has been on the air for almost 2 decades!