The Futon Critic has a story that takes a look at new series launches since 1999 and measures success based on whether the show makes it to a second season.
Of the 100 shows that have launched on Friday night since the fall of 1999, only 15 - or just 15% - have made it to second seasons. Conversely, of the 69 shows that have bowed on Sunday nights during the same period - a whopping 28 (or 41%) made it to second seasons.
Notably, it appears that out of 23 shows FOX has launched on Fridays in that time period, Dollhouse is the only show that launched on Friday to get a second season. With just a 4 percent success rate, FOX is the worst of the broadcast networks (excluding extinct networks like UPN) when it comes to success with Friday launches.
Not surprisingly, CBS has had the best success rate on Fridays with 30 percent.
Check out the whole list, for every network and every day of the week on The Futon Critic.
The question is which way is the correlation. The implication is that the shows fail because they’re presented on Friday. However, shows are generally presented on Friday because they are deemed inadequate to warrant a more potentially-lucrative time slot.
Oh, Fox Friday. Short home of my #3 or 4 (probably 3) show of all time, Wonderfalls.
I think Smallville‘s huge drop in the switch to Fridays argues for the former, Brian. Or maybe people just really really like Aaron Ashmore.
The “10 Things You Need to Know about the New Season” is one (er…10) of my favorite articles on The Futon Critic.
Holly, I was just about to direct readers there.
(Assuming that you were talking about last year’s list.)
If your The CW, sunday is the worst night, Fox and ABC have better luck but CBS will bomb with Three Rivers. If your airing fridays and your on Fox your show will bomb, while if your on CBS that night, your show will do better.
I’d look through the archives and read through the 2007 & 2008 batches as well. Tv ratings numbers porn? For this crowd, yes please!
Even if they are dirty dirty retentionistas. When will they learn?
Holly, I think you’re my long lost sister
Dan , wait , maybe this means Three Rivers will get 3 or 4 more seasons even if the show is terrible. …The small group of Alex O’Louhlin fans must have their hopes up after reading this.
Lena – Of CBS’s three new fall dramas, every year 1 of them is axed. With NCIS: LA guaranteed a full season renewal, that leaves just Three RIvers and The Good Wife as contenders to get axed. It seems with Good reviews and moderately good ratings for Good Wife, it seems Wife has a Good chance of getting additional episodes. However Three Rivers has a large disadvantage of airing at a competitive timeslot, and not having exactly the best lead in. Rivers will likely drop and bring down the waning Cold Case. Thats why I think Rivers will get axed. Previously it seemed to be CBS’s trend of axing every new series that they aired at 10pm tuesdays, however I think The Good Wife may benefit from its NCIS LA lead in.
Dollhouse is the only exception to FOX’s fridays, but its second season performance shows everyone why FOX doesnt renew any of their friday night series.
Dan-
After last week’s opening of Brothers, will you now concede that Brothers is not long for this world? I know you were thinking full season, but will you now see it more likely my prediction of back-to-back Til Death?
Dan , I guess you are right . If one show has to go ,it looks like Three Rivers is the 1st in the list . The Good Wife did pretty good in ratings , I did liked the show a lot . And I bet is cheaper than Three Rivers. And after all everything is about ratings and costs.