Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F) | 0.45 |
| Parks & Recreation | 0.68 |
| Mercy | 0.86 |
| Law & Order: SVU | 0.94 |
| Community | 1.01 |
| Heroes | 1.05 |
| The Office | 1.46 |
-
You'll not find a bigger fan of the Law & Order franchise than me, but now that the show has hit the 20th season milestone, the ratings say its time to be put out to pasture. Some think Parks & Recreation was renewed to keep Amy Poehler happy. With its current ratings, NBC's likely to cancel the show and find some other way to cheer her up.
Although, SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it's limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think Parks might be renewed or for at least a full season.
I think mercy is unlikely to make it to 13 episodes let alone be renewed at the end of the season….
i think Parks will definately be cancelled awful show + bad ratings even when paired with the office 100 Questions will probably take over in Midseason Mercy and Trauma will have their 13 episodes but that will be it for them NBC still has 4 more dramas to premiere (Persons Unknown , Chuck,Parenthood and Day One)
NBC and CW should honestly have their own Renew/Cancel index as to whether the network itself will last to next season.
Wow. You think Heroes has a chance of being renewed? Unless they cut the budget WAY down and retool the show, I think it’s goose is cooked.
Heroes is NBC’s best drama in the demos right now its not going anywhere unless NBC finds a huge hit in Parenthood or Persons Unknown (Day One is just a mini series)
@nkinsey: The index solely goes off the network’s scripted 18-49 average. And frighteningly enough, Heroes is better than NBC’s average.
That said, especially if the actual 18-49 numbers are forbidden, perhaps they could add per episode costs to the column, which would be suggestive in either/or cases. Listing the producer would also be suggestive, especially come April. Something like:
Program | R/C Index | Timeslot | Producer | License Fee
I could not stomach even one episode of Parks. It just is not funny.
As for L&O – I have been a loyal viewer for all the years but the out right blatant liberal bias in last week’s opener ended that for me. It went too far left. I’m outta there!
i was going to say see ya NBC and Cw
That said, especially if the actual 18-49 numbers are forbidden, perhaps they could add per episode costs to the column, which would be suggestive in either/or cases. Listing the producer would also be suggestive, especially come April.
If you could supply the cost per episode, they might consider it, but as it is we have no reliable access to that information.
I like Parks & Rec, but it’s not my favorite show by any means. NBC is in trouble, but it’s come out of trouble before (the 70′s were awful for NBC).
Where would Chuck fit into this renew/cancel based upon end of season numbers last year?
Chuck would probably be just under community
If NBC won’t renew L&O, TNT would jump at the chance to pick it up. And even if that doesn’t happen NBCU would move it to USA like they did with CI.
@marenamoo Chuck would most likely be around the same area as Mercy’s 0.86, it seemed to be setting at around a 2.3 A18-49 rating.
@marenamoo, you win the “first Chuck” award! With all of NBC’s ratings down, Chuck would look pretty good, but I think it’s completely apples/oranges.
Tom, no question that Law & Order could go to first run on cable if the economics can be made to work, but this is almost certainly it’s last season on NBC.
@Tom (the other one)
The index considers cancellation to apply only to that network; last season’s index had L&O in trouble for most of the year, but everyone involved stated it would simply end up on TNT if not renewed by NBC.
Even if L&O does move, they are gonna have to stop the liberal messaged scripts in order to keep an audience.
I think L&O could survive on NBC with a 2.2 18-49 rating. And NBC could hype next season as Breaking, not tying, Gunsmoke’s record.