Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL | 0.49 |
| Melrose Place | 0.78 |
| Gossip Girl | 0.98 |
| 90210 | 0.98 |
| Smallville (F) | 0.98 |
| One Tree Hill | 1.07 |
| Supernatural (S) | 1.17 |
| Vampire Diaries | 1.66 |
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The Beautiful Life got canceled before I could get out the Renew / Cancel Index, so no chance for an easy prediction there. However, Melrose Place's chances of making it to 2010-11 seem no more beautiful. Heather Locklear probably shouldn't get too settled in.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I’m glad Beautiful Life was cancelled. Next is Melrose Place.
Good lord. I’m still amazed after all these years that people watch One Tree Hill.
As Dawn goes, so does Melrose. If she is still around in 2010, MP could easily be around as well.
Also, is this index based solely on 18-49? I thought you were going to give a 18-34 (or W18-34) index for CW this year?
Will we have a Renew/Cancel index for The CW network itself? I’ll put the network’s chances of coming back next year or folding at: Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
I asked this in another post, but no one weighed in; so I’ll ask again:
Has anybody else wondered if airing Melrose on both Tues & Wed will basically cut their Tuesday night viewers in half? Instead of getting more exposure, does anybody else think the same audience will watch either night since they have an option to watch the same ep Tuesday OR Wednesday?
kinsey i agree Melrose repeats will backfire and both nights will be down the CW loves melrose place but it keeps dropping and they’re going to run out of excuses to keep it (its probably not cheap for them either)
@nkinsey,
It might hurt viewership a bit, but not cut it in half. Cable nets do this all the time and don’t see a lot of damage to the first airing. Of course, since the ratings have been on a downward trajectory since the beginning, it will be hard to tell how much of the loss is due to that slide and how much is due to it being on twice.
@Tom, you’re asking all the right questions today.
I considered using adults 18-34 averages for the CW, but since the CW specifically targets women 18-34, and we don’t see those averages, it still wouldn’t really be ideal. In the end, I decided to keep everything adults 18-49 for consistency, even though it’s not ideal for CW shows.
nkinsey, the extra airing of Melrose could cut into the primary airing’s ratings. We don’t have the information available to be able to figure that out.
@Bill, You left a bold tag open in the side menu.
Wow, the gap between number 1 and 2 is BIG. Good to see Dawnies “rich slut”-shows are below 1, and may they fall even more
melbye i think Gossip Girl is actually the CW’s #1 show in women 18-34
personally i think
90210 ,Gossip Girl and Vampire Diaries 100% will get renewed
Supernatural, One tree Hill and Smallville are aging alot but the CW will try to keep them if it can
Melrose Place will be cancelled and i think Life UnXpected will probably flop too
I think Life UneXpected will do well but then again it depends on what slot it is given.
I agree that Melrose Place depends on if Dawn Ostroff survives as head of the CW.
Will be interesting to see if the CW develops more genre shows this year, now that its Top 2 and three of its Top 4 shows are fantasy/horror-themed. Although, judging by the recent reality show announcements, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
CW is shooting themselves in the foot by only targeting a fickle demo. It worked for The WB a decade ago, but only for a few years, and that was before Internet streaming and piracy and all that good stuff the young’ns seem to be so good at.
Well Melrose should still be able to finish its initial batch of episodes and I think it likely will get a full or maybe reduced season but it needs some help to get more than one season.
I’m beginning to think that One Tree Hill is the CW’s NCIS – it just always seems to be consistent and do well enough to stick around season after season – didn’t they lose most of their cast? And yet it still does well enough by CW standards.
Im happy for Supernatural and Vampire Diaries but they had like 3 episodes already and Smallville has only had 1 and it didnt do as good =(
CW should try and sell off its shows to other networks/cable at the end of this season and shut down. They’re in an irreversable spiral of death.
CW already asked for 6 additional Melrose scripts
Does this make more financial sense to target women 18-34?
Men still make an average of about 10% more than women of equal skills.
I’d be curious to see what the ad revenues are for the shows.
Smallville, Supernatural more male driven vs gossip girl, 90210, female driven.