Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season:
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL||0.49|
|One Tree Hill||1.07|
The Beautiful Life got canceled before I could get out the Renew / Cancel Index, so no chance for an easy prediction there. However, Melrose Place’s chances of making it to 2010-11 seem no more beautiful. Heather Locklear probably shouldn’t get too settled in.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.