Don't look now, but if the early indications for the season mean anything, ABC will no doubt sooner or later go the route of having several nights a week of 10pm programming that is unscripted. I'd bet sooner. It won't be Leno-esque and I don't see them changing anything Sundays or Thursdays, but it increasingly seems inevitable. Friday is already unscripted at 10pm (20/20) and Saturday is already Off The Map as far as new scripted content goes.
But the results early in the season for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday suggest that ABC's failure at 10pm those nights is a trend that has not been easy for the network to reverse.
So far this week in the preliminary overnights, Castle has pulled a 2.3 adutls 18-49 rating, The Forgotten a 2.0 (and losing to Leno at that!) and Eastwick a 2.4. With the exception of Castle, which was flat, the shows are all down from their premieres.
Will ABC keep swimming upstream, or will it (mostly) throw in the towel at 10pm like NBC has done?
The Forgotten has already lived up to its name, and though Castle may be stable, but will ABC be OK with even a stable 2.3 rating? My guess is no.
The jig isn't up for Eastwick just yet perhaps, but droping from a 3.0 to a 2.4 is never a healthy sign, and even if it stabilizes at a 2.4...see Castle.
So far, it's all adding up to ABC needing to do something else with 10pm. Will something else be still more new scripted dramas to replace existing mediocre performers, or will it be unscripted content? I think the latter is very likely, if not this season, next. And I don't think we'll see anywhere near the level of vitriol directed at ABC for doing so as we've seen with NBC/Leno if/when ABC announces it.
Let the cries of "OMG, can't they see how having Leno on at 10pm on NBC has wrecked all of primetime for NBC" begin!
If anything, I’m sure NBC is PRAYING that ABC dumps scripted stuff at 10pm – that’ll take some of the pressure/criticism off Leno.
That being said, if it was ABC unscripted vs. NBC unscripted – unless ABC has something REALLY good up their sleeve, I think NBC will come out the winner.
Anonymous: if profits are the game, it’s not a zero sum game. Leno could win in the ratings but if ABC is making more money than it did before… In some circles, that would be considered a win!
Anon, by the time it’s likely ABC does this (next season or the following one), Leno rage will have dissipated once it’s clear he’s sticking around. I’m not *certain* yet he is sticking around, but if it becomes clear that he is, that plus time will damp down the level of Leno rage.
The usual suspect mentioned is ABC blending their Nightline & frequent 10pm newsmagazines (Primetime, 20/20) into some new (probably Nightline -branded) show that runs at 10pm, a mix of pre-filmed exposes and live discussion.
(I wouldn’t consider Thursday off limits, either: whenever Grey’s goes down, it will take Practice with it.)
I would be shocked if it happens in 10/11 (not enough data on 46-week Leno yet by the time they would have to decide this in March/April), but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if it happens in 11/12.
@ Robert, yeah you have a good point there. After all, NBC was protecting their bottom line, not necessarily chasing after ratings points.
The only reasonable thing I can see at this point is ABC moving “Nightline” up to 10pm, and give Jimmy the 11:35pm slot. But I hope that ABC programming execs are a bit more creative, and they come up with something better
(…I won’t hold my breath)
I think abc will not give up the 10 pm block like NBC did!
i think abc should make some changes in January in this slot.
the series are all very week stories, so the ratings are not a surprise!
maybe happy twon or the deep end bring good news later in the season.
I hear about the Nightline thing, but despite the back and forth between the networks PR, it strikes me that the late-night block is currently a lucrative block for them all. I’m not sure how much they’d want to screw with it. But they have lots of options between 20/20, Primetime and other unscripted fare.
For now, I’d count on them keeping the 10pm block scripted on Thursday, which complicates the notion of stripping a show Mon-Fri.
ABC clearly wants Castle. They do a lot to promote it. I wouldn’t count it out just yet, especially with it’s huge and dedicated fanbase. Plus, it’s one of the few quality shows left on ABC. They’re not going to drop that.
MichyGeary, it’s safe to say every network wants every show they have on the air. Until they don’t
I think ABC should move Jimmy Kimmel to prime time hours 5 nights a week to compete with Jay Leno on the 10pm slot. Sounds silly, but it might work.
What do you guys have against Castle? If you’re going to pick on an abc drama, try the forgotten. Castle may not have stellar ratings but it is a show a lot of people really love, unlike most new series, and that’s something to build on. Plus it can’t be expensive to make. It’s a no-brainer to keep it.
I think ABC will be more likely to add a news show piecemeal rather than do a set 5-night-a-week show like Leno. They can use Primetime, 20/20, etc. to fill hours here and there while not sacrificing the hour altogether.
Vetinari: what do you have against a site called TVbytheNumbers looking at the numbers and saying they suck? Didn’t say the show sucked. Didn’t say the fans sucked. Didn’t say Nathan Fillion sucked. Didn’t say the writers sucked and didn’t say YOU sucked.
But nonetheless, the numbers suck.
Vetinari, it’s no use. They’ve had it out for Castle since last season. Every story like this one or the index rating always headlines with Castle.
We can only hope that ABC has more faith in it than these guys do.
^The index post had Castle in the headline because it was the lowest-rated scripted show on ABC last week. They did the same for the lowest-rated show on every network.
Robert Seidman, what are you doing? Why are you writing such negatively biased articles? Castle is an excellent show. It beat Leno. It is, as you point out, stable.
Castle is made brilliant by its extraordinarily talented leading man, Nathan Fillion. It, and he, are both funny, smart, sexy, charming, and wonderfully entertaining. It is well-acted, well-written, and well-directed.
Robert, would you please get behind this worthwhile show and start looking for the good in it? Lots of us are working to help save Castle because we love it, and we fully support Nathan Fillion. You are welcome to join us!
Thank you,
Kcat10
KCat, this is a site about NUMBERS not show quality. I loved the NBC show life (and said so) but its numbers sucked (and I said so). This is a site about numbers.
Plus, Holly’s comment said it all. Castle was ABC’s lowest-rated scripted show last week (good news, it won’t be this week! Thank The Forgotten!). We didn’t make that up. It wasn’t spin. It’s just what actually happened!
Odd suggestion, but what if ABC were to move one of their soaps to the 10pm hour? While not as cost-effective as Leno, 5 hours of a soap cost (on average, depending on the show) less than $1 million.
Probably would get less criticism than a talk/news program 5 days a week. Also, ABC’s biggest dramas are already soaps (Grey’s, DH, Brothers and Sisters…). A show like “General Hospital” would probably fit right in.
the deep end and happy town and V will air at 10 pm?
Dan, that wouldn’t work because if a show moves to primetime, scale for everyone working on the show moves to primetime as well.