Most people actually do watch the commercials while DVRing, and the commercials are actually created with fast-forwarding in mind. Otherwise, the Live + 3 Day never would have been taken seriously by the advertisers when talking about purchasing airtime on the networks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16commercials.html

And with the way advertising is priced now, it’s assumed to better to have your viewers watching Live than via DVR. Of course, you want *more* viewers watching vs. fewer.

Apparently, relatively few people care enough about Jay Leno’s show to save the programs on their DVR. And if Jeff Zucker really thinks this is something to cheer about, then he’s an even bigger idiot than i thought.

the next new show on TV I will try is “V”…and I’m counting down to “24″…”Fast Forward” doesn’t fit into my schedule sooo – I’m guessing future DVD fun for that one too…I will try LOST & HEROES when they finally finish those shows…

Well of course Fringe is going to take away part of the audience, but at this point last year (the week above we hadn’t yet faced CSI or Grey’s).

We had a stronger lead in (as Smallville did perform stronger in viewers and adults 18-49 (but not females nor the a18-34). And that can be a huge factor has lead in can have a dramatic impact on your show.

So you might have several hundred thousands fans of Smallville who were just casual fans of Supernatural who no longer watch the show.

We also started last year against almost no direct competition, with the idea that we gain some casual viewers who might stick around. But those tend to be casual viewers as well.

You have to understand most viewers of shows (for any shows) watch more out of habit then zeal. Your intense fan base is probably just a few hundred thousand.

The other thing (I remember looking at the DVR reports all last eyar and the use of DVR on Thursday was exceptionally high)is the limit on how many shows can recorded at one time. With even more choices this year at this time (unless of course Kitchen Nightmares had a serious fan base).

Take for example, if last year you watch SN recorded DVR the Office (a show that had tremendous DVR use), then say that person is also a fan of Fringe. But can only record one show? That puts one show out as an option to watch or record to watch later. This applies to any time slot.

We have had several reports from people already complaining (I think even this site has posted some) about how Thursday is to crowded with shows that people are interested in.

Newsflash, I mute the commercials during live tv and look away just for spite. I hate commercials with a passion. If I’m watching the NFL live, I mute every single commercial, plus pull up my guide to block the picture. The amount of commercials is absurd. If it isn’t Toyota infiltrating this country, it’s Pfizer and their 50 drug commercials, or some insurance or alcohol company.

Good riddance!

Translation: the data is out there, we just didn’t see it in what we received. Unfortunately we’re data beggars rather than choosers when it comes to DVR #s, but I am optimistic we’ll see everything for the week of 9/21-9/27.

But a simple way of looking at it is that if 15% of a show’s viewing is on DVR, and 85% of the viewing is within 3 days, and 80% of the people skip the commercials, that accounts for less than an additional 3% commercial viewing overall. Even if 50% of the viewing is on DVR it is still less than 9% extra commercial viewing.

The ongoing (and so far, fruitless) struggle for the networks is convincing advertisers that there is at least some value in the ads, even when they are fast-forwarded over.

Unlike Bill, I don’t think DVR viewing “adds almost no commercial viewing”. All of the studies I’ve seen indicate 75% to 80% of all the commercials get skipped/fast forwarded during DVR viewing. But that means 20%-25% get watched. While overwhelmingly commercials aren’t watched, I don’t view 20%-25% as “almost no commercial viewing”. Though i doubt it is extremely meaningful, either, and not meaningful at all if the commercials are viewed on DVR more than 3 days after the program aired.

Community timeslot move is kinda unpredictable. It could earn more viewers due to a little weaker competition or get hurt because the lack of Office lead-in. I like the show but I don’t think it’s getting renewed unless it pulls a 2.0+ and builds a solid fanbase. Fringe is doing fine and it should stay there if it does constant ratings like Bones.

Anyway, how are the DVR numbers going to hurt (if they are) Jay Leno Show?

Using the program #s are flawed for such analysis because they exclude any fast-forwarding of commercials (both the L+SD and Live+7). In other words, the DVR minutes spent skipping the commercials have already been factored out of these numbers.

My sense from FOX is that so far they are happy with the Thursday results — at least based on the week above, and that was even before they saw the L+7 #s.

From the looks of things, it’s getting 1.5 points in the 18-49 demos and has a pretty large viewing by DVR. That’s gotta be telling FOX that a lot of people are watching Grey’s Anatomy or CSI live and DVRing the show to watch later.