Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.26 |
| Dollhouse (F) | 0.31 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.31 |
| Fringe | 0.74 |
| Bones | 0.89 |
| Lie To Me | 0.94 |
| Glee | 1.03 |
| American Dad | 1.16 |
| The Simpsons | 1.40 |
| The Cleveland Show | 1.50 |
| Family Guy | 1.66 |
| House | 2.02 |
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I'm more about the numbers than the rumors, but the numbers still say Dollhouse is a goner by the end of the season. It's highly unlikely that 'Til Death or Brothers survives until next season as well. 'Til Death's producers (Sony) will have the episodes they need for syndication, and presumably won't need to give the series away to Fox for nearly free again, and Brothers ratings are just plain awful. Still, because those are the only two open half hour slots till football is over, Fox is in a tricky situation if they want to pull just one of them early unless they double up on the other, which wouldn't seem to increase the ratings either. Even though I have Fringe in orange, I think the danger it gets canceled is small. It will get a big boost from American Idol in the spring and is likely to stick around another season. (It seems I was confused and it will be Glee getting the after Idol slot)
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think Fox has something like 35 episodes of Till Death (if they finish production on the 22 episode 4th season). They could run double episodes throughout the entire year on Friday if they wanted to.
I still think FOX will try to keep Fringe for 2010-2011. Lie to Me’s fate depends on if FOX wants to coninue saving it, and Glee given the time slots, is likely to return. Til Death already has a full season, and hopefully Brothers will stay paired with it. Dollhouse is DEAD, hopefully it will air around 7 episodes, but its possibly going to get pulled. Also Fringe isnt airing after Idol, its airing after Bones. I dont think FOX would move it again.
According to Wikipedia (yeah yeah), 46 out of 76 episodes have aired. That leaves 30 in the can (though, more then 8 remain ‘unaired’ before a 4th season was done so I have no idea).
Brad, you are correct, but Fox’s behavior between last October when they pulled ‘Til Death off the schedule through the summer indicates that while they have the new episodes ready, they don’t particularly want to air them.
yep Brothers can be canned after 13 then double Til Death
To whom it may concern @ FOX Television:
I know Dollhouse is a sinking ship. I think we ALL do. However, please don’t do the show the injustice of being canceled before “‘Til Death.” Anything but that. If you’re going to axe Dollhouse, please just put that show out of its misery first, even if it’s just by a few minutes. Dollhouse deserves that at least.
Bill,
Fox could have burned off many of those episodes as well but chose not to. The problem is, a handful of them have the neighbors that ‘disappeared’ a few years ago and others have JB Smoove (or whatever his name is) who has also disappeared for Season 4.
Brothers is likely toast and a double-dose of ‘Til Death makes sense for Fox right now. Mid-season will be interesting for them.
And yeah, I actually enjoy ‘Til Death
“Still, because those are the only two open half hour slots till football is over, Fox is in a tricky situation if they want to pull just one of them early unless they double up on the other, which wouldn’t seem to increase the ratings either.”
Fox needs an unpaired half-hour show to run behind the American Idol results show in the spring—unlike SYTYCD, Idol doesn’t have the content for an hour-long results show, as we all saw in season 7 with those painful phone-ins and other nonsense. So I would think Fox would have want to keep one or the other of those sitcoms for those 13 or so weeks of results (depending on how they work the semis this year).
I think Fringe chances up good
I doubt Fringe will get canceled, but I still don’t like to see it in the orange.
Jared:
If you check out TVBTN’s first round of DVR (live + 7) numbers, it’ll give you a good sense of relief about Fringe:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/10/05/first-week-of-the-jay-leno-show-really-was-dvr-proof/29591
I know on the Dollhouse ratings need to go UP entry, there was some mention that in place of Dollhouse they may run Glee. I think it might be good to run Fringe reruns for the people who have jam packed Thursdays.
o i know, still I’m just saying.
Bill/Brad – There are 9 episodes from the third production season and 1 from the second production season of Til Death which still havent aired. I would have thought FOX would do what ABC did to Better Off Ted and burn the remianing episodes it has off in the summer. But stupidly FOX didnt do that and we have 10 episodes that will probably never air (until syndication). Its completely possible that if FOX axes Brothers, Til Death could just burn off its remaining eps at 7:00 sundays so 8:00 and 9:00 fridays can be devoted to dramas/reality.
What Does The (S) Mean?
Dan,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but they axed the neighbors at the end of Season 2 and they still have unaired episodes with them. Did they do neighbor episodes for some of Season 3 as well?
Going by your numbers, and I can only assume a full 22 episode Season 4 order, that’s 32 episodes of ‘Til Death. Holy. Crap.
Dan- I think your wish for Brothers to last isn’t going to be fulfilled.
Bruce- Til Death will outlast Dollhouse if only for the super cheap eps they bought so the show can go into syndication. But don’t worry, it won’t live THAT much longer than Dollhouse.
Clio- That don’t HAVE to have a half-hour show to pair with AmerIdol. They’ll probably make it a full hour again this year. They may use it to give their new Sunday sitcom a lil’ exposure, but that won’t be long term.
“Even though I have Fringe in orange, I think the danger it gets canceled is small. It will get a big boost from American Idol in the spring and is likely to stick around another season.”
Err, come again? Last I heard it was still on Thursdays for the entire season and will only get to air after a couple AIs, if that.
IMDB lists about 8 unaired episodes from Season Two as well. Not sure if the production schedules were flip/flopped a bit though. It’s been impossible to figure out what the hell is going on with the show over the past few years.
I forgot, Sons of Tuscon is a mid-season show as well. They could stick that after Idol or on Friday/Sundays. Everything else they show is 1 hour shows.