Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Hank | 0.68 |
| Castle (p) | 0.73 |
| the forgotten | 0.74 |
| The Middle | 0.84 |
| Eastwick | 0.85 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S) | 1.00 |
| FlashForward | 1.24 |
| Modern Family | 1.29 |
| Cougar Town | 1.32 |
| Private Practice | 1.48 |
| Desperate Housewives | 1.56 |
| Grey's Anatomy | 2.06 |
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Poor Kelsey Grammer, ever since he stopped being Frasier Crane he can't catch a break. His latest show, Hank, premiered as the most likely ABC show to be canceled prior to the end of the 2009-2010 season. Not to worry, we'll always have Cheers!
Castle looks a little better this week, but that's primarily because other ABC shows did worse, it's still in significant danger of being canceled by the end of the season. the forgotten's second airing ratings fell sharply and now it's likely in even more danger than Castle of being canceled. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and The Middle might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either. Brothers & Sisters improvement in its second airing has boosted it into the safe zone.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
This drives me insane, stop with this cancelation thing when shows have only been on for 1 or 2 episodes, ts stupid.
Well, Kelsey Grammer is a recurring character on The Simpsons. They seem to be doing well. But yeah, it’s strange. It’s like the Seinfeld-curse, only with Frasier.
If Castle holds up with the ratings it got last night than I think it’ll be safe for renewal.
Bye bye Craig, run along to E-Online. Tell them we said hello!
Bill, I think for these it’s probably worth specifying somehow the dates they run through (10/4, in this case) so that people reading this tomorrow are aware it doesn’t include the Castle episode from last night.
Craig, They start it at the beginning of the season so we can follow trends, not because they think it will necessarily end this way. If you don’t like it, skip these posts.
Castle should get a bump in the index next week if its numbers hold up from last night. I know a drop is expected but it should come out higher than previous numbers anyway.
Castle’s chance of survival imo still depends on how The Forgotten and Eastwick do.
Poor Castle, still looking very canceled. It might be early in the season, but right now Castle’s problem is that even if Eastwick, and The Forgoten, Hank, and The Middle help pushing ABC’s average down. ABC has 3 new shows that are doing much better than Castle. This season there is no reason to save a bubble show because it was the least bad of the new shows.
Robert, good idea, added date information to the first bolded text.
Hank and the Forgotten will definitely be cancelled by November.
Im hoping Eastwick and The Middle get full seasons this year and I think they will. I also think Castle will get the full season if it holds last nights ratings.
I think ABC has faith in The Middle because they are repeating it this Friday after a repeat of Modern Family.
Expecting full season pickups for Modern Family and Cougar Town anytime soon.
Again, as underwhelming as Castle’s early ratings were, ABC still has quite a few spring holes to fill: T8, T10, W10, probably W8. (Middle is probably not canceled, but turned into additional Dancing padding once Ted runs out).
I just don’t see ABC having enough waiting in the wings (especially given that Bachelor & Beauty are Winter-programming) to cancel Castle before year’s end.
Maybe Kelsey Grammer should get a role on his daughter Spencer’s show, Greek. At least Greek is a good show. Did anyone hear Hank’s premise and NOT cringe? Word to show creators: in this economy no viewer is going to root for a character who is a rich, greedy CEO, even if the show is about rich greedy CEO being knocked down a few pegs.
S, Castle’s luck may be changing for the better if it holds up as well as it supposedly held up last night. At the least it could get a full season, if not a renewal for season 3.
I’m a little surprised that Castle is lower than the forgotten. Does it have anything to do with Castle having a better time slot, yet not doing that much better?
think of the criticism thrown out at tv execs for quick trigger fingers and then look at your headline and story… ha. so freaking funny.
and even if he gets wanked off the air… i think cheers, frasier and simpsons plus medium and girlfriends… are enough to prevent sympathy from blogger headlines
Nkinsey: NO, it has to do with this only being the average for TWO episodes and THE FORGOTTEN having a much better (relatively) season premiere than CASTLE.
He should just do Frasier again.
i hope that eastwick wont cancel!!its my favourite new show after melrose place!!!
My guess is that Hank will be axed by November and the rest of the ABC comedies will get a full season. Hank could be replaced by Holiday specials beginning in November, but its expendable. Modern Family and Cougar Town are definites for a full year, but I think The Middle has a good chance too. Its possible ABC will keep their comedy block all year but just make some changes. They could move Scrubs, and Better Off Ted to 8:00 and 8:30 and keep Modern Family and Cougar Town where they are. The Middle could be held until later in the season though. As for the dramas, my strong belief is that Castle will get a full season and Eastwick and The Forgotten will be axed by December. I dont think either would be “pulled”, its possible ABC will just air both series out until December.
Does anyone else agree?
Dan: I suggest you figure out where you are putting Lost in your theoretical before you schedule the comedies
I love the c/r charts, esp the different colors lol