Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F) | 0.44 |
| Parks & Recreation | 0.70 |
| Trauma | 0.81 |
| Mercy | 0.81 |
| Law & Order: SVU | 0.93 |
| Heroes | 0.98 |
| Community | 1.04 |
| The Office | 1.44 |
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Parks & Recreation started slowly, and disastrously for its future, this season. Maybe putting Community ahead of it starting this Thursday can pick up its ratings, or maybe it will kill Community too. We'll know soon enough. Law & Order may be back with originals on cable next season, but don't expect to see them first on NBC.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think the time shift will hurt Community and it certainly won’t help Parks & Recreation. P&R’s “Kath & Kim” numbers are currently writing its epitaph.
With Heroes so miserable in the ratings, how is it still green? I’m assuming this is because compared to the rest of NBC its doing alright.
Bill, do you really think Heroes will be back next year? Come to think of it- what can NBC do, cancel all its scripted shows except SVU, the Office, 30 Rock and Community ?
skylar, in renewal and cancellation decisions Heroes doesn’t compete with CBS shows (or other networks) only other NBC shows (plus NBC’s development slate, which we don’t try and evaluate), so its ratings *relative* to other NBC shows are all that matters.
Although note that through the two “official” weeks of this season that Heroes is still declining where the NBC 18-49 average was stable. That trend bodes ill for the show.
Don’t hold your breath. Community’s numbers are about to go downtown.
Heroes is currently doing worse than Chuck did at the end of last season and Chuck was on cancellation watch all season long. That shows just how badly things have gotten for NBC that if Chuck were to return with the same numbers it left with that it would be safely in the green zone.
As for the Community/P&R question, I sadly think that Community won’t help P&R at all. If anything, the time shift is going to severely hurt Community’s numbers. And that’s too bad too because Community has been incredible so far and P&R S2 has been worlds ahead of P&R S1.
Heroes’s renewal / cancellation depends alot of how Parenthood and Persons Unknown , even Chuck perform NBC wont want to cancel its #1 drama which is currently Heroes but if maybe 2 of hose three do better they can let it go
To elaborate: I’m pretty sure that the Chuck season finale had a 2.4 in the 18-49 demo and Heroes had a 2.3 last night (subject to change of course).
Mercy and Trauma are 50/50. Both will air out until Heroes is done, but its likely 1 will get additional episodes and the other will finish up after 13. Both are likely to be replaced by Persons Unknown and Parenthood. Community and Parks and 8 will kill both shows so I still think to save Community, NBC should air it after The Office and move 30 Rock to 8. Heroes should be gone after this year, but if NBC accepts lower numbers then it will stay. Law and Order could return on NBC next year.
P&R had an uptick in ratings this last week. Also, the NBC boards and other boards are all consistently buzzing about how good the show is this season (It really is way better than the first season!)
With The Office in season 6 (although holding up well, so far) and NBC not having a deep bench, P&R will likely grow in ratings and then will get a full season pick up and even picked up for next season. Community is almost as good and due to NBC’s lack of bench will tag along in much the same manner.
Michael – I agree Heroes numbers are pretty bad, however NBC has nothing else…..
CK – The problem is the SNL updates are hurting the entire night. NBC should have premiered 30 Rock with the other 3 comedies and at 8. I believe The Office, 30 Rock and Community will be the only 3 comedies returning to NBC in fall of 2010. Parks will likely be axed in May.
I only watch TV online so I pay no attention to time slots or what the schedules look like on TV. I am really surprised that NBC only has 9 programs (10 once 30 Rock returns) airing. Do they have other shows coming up in the fall besides 30 Rock? What do they use to fill the airtime? No wonder the ratings are so low, they don’t have anything on trying to grab new viewers.
Dan- You know, awhile ago you and I agreed that they’d probably ax Mercy and give more to Trauma. However, now that Trauma has been on the air and kinda sucked, ratings-wise, I’m thinking that looks better for Mercy.
And yea, Parks will probably be done. But don’t worry, NBC LOVES Amy – so they’ll probably put her in something else. Not that it’ll be any better, but hey.
Community will not help P&R. If anything, its numbers will suffer from both the timeshift so soon in its life, and being paired with “The Office” rip-off.
I’ve actually learned something with P&R. Who knew that creators and writers of “The Office” could rip THEMSELVES off??
Time to finally kill Law & Order. The show’s lost any relevancy, and now it’s just pure comedy in its fight to be relevant(I’m going to prosecute the Bush administration!). It’s been too long. Take it out back and kill it.
I say bring back Chuck now on Weds. It can not go back to Mondays, there are too many good shows on Mondays, look whats happening to Heroes on Mondays. That show Mercy is awful, Weds. is a weaker night for show on the networks, bring Chuck back the first week of November sweeps. When NBC brings back CHUCK IN EARLY NOVEMBER PLEASE TRY TO REMEMBER TO PROMOTE THE SHOW BEFORE IS RETURNS.
It won’t be long before SVU is pulling better numbers than Heroes. Trauma is going down. Mercy has a good chance for renewal.
I can’t see Community helping P&R’s ratings. I really like P&R and I’ll be sad to see it go.
And about Chuck, I thought its finale pulled a 2.0, not a 2.4. I’m not sure on this though.
nkinsey – Yeah, I think we both thought Trauma would get more eps and Mercy would be axed. While I believe both shows will air out all episodes, due to costs its likely Trauma will stop at 13 episodes and Mercy will get up to 17-18. Neither will get pulled though.