Why Do We do the index so early in the season?
I know it irks some people that we do these posts after only a bit of data, but please remember they are just point in time references. Things can and do change, but we make our calculations based on the data we have. A main reason people read our site is that they're interested in assessing a show's prospects for survival.
Sometimes even a little bit of data is a lot of data
The index measures a shows performance relative to the performance of the network it airs on. So the index score for Parks & Recreation isn't calculated based on looking at other networks. The index score for Parks & Recreation compares its season-to-date adults 18-49 average to NBC's season-to date adults 18-49 average in primetime.
So what about Dollhouse, Castle and Melrose Place, why pick on them?
We think that even after only a couple of weeks, there's enough data to know that if you're a fan of Dollhouse, Castle or Melrose Place, you have good cause to be concerned about the long-term fate of your shows. We don't say that because we don't like those shows, we say that because relative to the networks they air on, they are the worst, or among the worst performers in the ratings.
With those three shows, the prospects for renewal based on the ratings don't look good at all currently.
Dollhouse and Castle currently seem at risk of being gone long before the season ends, while Melrose Place is currently on track to be this year's Privileged where it gets additional episodes (for Privileged it was five additional episodes for a total of 18) but not a full season pickup.
How can Heroes look so healthy in your index!? WTF!?!?
NBC is in such shambles with much of its non Sunday Night Football primetime fare, that even a Heroes that is but a shadow of its former self ratings wise winds up looking pretty good relative to the network's overall performance. It's still very early in the season, and this week's index is only measuring the first two weeks of the season (and not Monday 10/5, where Heroes dropped a little bit again, but...was still NBC's best performer of the night!)
It could be that by the end of the season the index for NBC has more disclaimers than the other networks. With my historical ratings cap on, it's hard for me to imagine NBC is happy with how Heroes is performing. On the other hand, there is no denying that even with historically low ratings where new series lows for adults 18-49 are reached by Heroes every week, it's still one of NBC's better performers.
Be sure to check out each networks index': I'll include the links for you again:
If you want to comment on particularly shows, I'd appreciate it if you went to the index post for that show and posted it there. But if you have any other questions or comments about the index that aren't show related, feel free to post them here.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows and is published from late September to late May during the television season.
Above are links to the renewal and cancellation prospects for each network. New posts will be added each week during the normal broadcast season, usually on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, but sometimes later due to data delays and holidays.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
as stated in the post: please take SHOW specific comments to their appropriate index posts (links above) otherwise your comment will be deleted.
But if you have general questions/comments about the index that aren’t about specific shows, feel free to post them here.
Given the extra real estate now, why don’t you list the show’s ownership (or at least a notation when they aren’t owned by the network(s))? It’s a non-irrelevant piece of information.
Tom, good idea, I was going to note that this week, but got caught up with other things. I won’t add another column, but do a footnote letter.
What happened to the cancellation by January color code? I think that could be useful for some new series.
hey where and how do u get the avg 18-49 for all the network? for the first two weeks i got an 3.0 avg rating for avg 18-49 and got castle index an .76 and u got a .73 just curious
Jawad, it is calculated based on Nielsen data (both for show, and network averages). I think one of the differences might be that you are using ratings (which are rounded) and Bill is using average show 18-49 viewers, and dividing by average network 18-49 viewers, rather than rating. But if I have that wrong, Bill will correct me…
Jawad, Robert and Bill get their averages direct from Nielsen. Since 18-49 ratings are only reported out to one decimal place, there’s a lot of rounding up. That could be the difference.
I do use ratings to do the calculation, but the result would be the same if I used avg. 18-49 viewership.
It strikes me that viewers is more accurate in that you have them (at least on a show basis) accurate to 1000 viewers. Ratings are rounded to only one decimal place and a 1.05 that becomes a 1.1 would be potentially off by ~65,000 viewers.
*Twiddling my thumbs as I wait for the powers that be to upload the unscripted list*
Guys: How do you set your (S) syndication number? Is it based on a number or an order that has been negotiated with a syndicating network? GW and HIMYM will be right 110 after this season — GW 109 (25 order) HIMYM 110 (22 order).
Daisies, you will be twiddling a while! I don’t think unscripted list will make a comeback. If you’re good at baking cookies, that might be more of a motivation for Bill than thumb-twiddling.
Dean: I think it is just a general guideline rather based on any syndicated deals already negotiated, but I have to defer to Bill for a more precise response.
DDK, no unscripted show list this season. I have to track (and enter) the ratings for every single episode this season and do my own average calculation since Nielsen is no longer supplying us with Live+SD season averages for shows. Too much work to include the unscripted shows as well.
Dean, the indications about syndication are still a bit of a work in progress. Clearly being near to syndication can motivate a producer to either practically give a show away to a network (Til Death) or suffer bad ratings for its own network to get enough episodes to syndicate (Ugly Betty), but does that motivation go away once the threshold number of episodes is reached, or does it still continue somewhat? I’m not entirely sure.
I think once its reached, then the series can be let go. Ugly Betty will have around 90 episodes, so ABC could order a short 13 episode final season, since the closer to 100 the better. According to Jim was going to get axed at Season 6 with 146 episodes, which is a lot. But was extended by 2 more seasons and 36 episodes despite horrible numbers just because 182 was a better amount. Scrubs is still around for syndication value as is Til Death despite not airing half the episodes. Its different for each series. Betty could be let go after this year if its doing really badly.
However shows like Brothers & Sisters, How I Met Your Mother, Numb3rs, and Ghost Whisperer arent still around just for syndication. They are around because they still do well. Medium is interesting because CBS picked it up because of a syndication deal, yet unlike Betty, Jim, Scrubs, and Death, Medium still does well for either network. NBC is just stupid enough to not have one of their highest rated series on their schedule for the fall.
There is a level of complexity with the syndication that might require more information than is readily available. Staying “general” might be our best bet.
For example, at the beginning of the 2008 season HIMYM cut syndication deals guaranteeing 110 episodes. At the time they did that, there was only ~70 episodes and an order that was going to get them to 88. This season will get it to 110 but they would’ve done whatever necessary to get to 110 regardless. I’m not sure that the information that became available about HIMYM is commonplace though.
Is there any way to include an indication of the upward/downward trend of a show?
Particularly in the early days when the data is moving around, it would be useful (to me at least) to have a bit of knowledge about the trajectory of a show. I am thinking of something like up or down arrows or (better yet) last week numbers or something.
Think of top 40 music lists. Last week at #4 this week at number #3, that sort of thing.
zeker, we’ve thought of a similar up/down notation. It’s likely we will try something.
Shows that will canceled
ABC- Castle, Eastwick, the forgotten
CW- Melrose Place
CBS- Three Rivers, Cold Case
NBC- Trauma, Parks & Recreation
FOX- Brothers, Dollhouse, Til Death
50/50
ABC- Ugly Betty
CBS- Old Christine, Accidentally on Purpose, Gary Unmarried
NBC- Mercy, Law & Order
FOX- Fringe
Do the shows pick up after MNF is over for the year? 15 million to 21 million is a pickup to someone…is that ever considered by the networks
I love this index! I’m kind of an order freak and here everything is simple and appealing and even with colors! The best television index ever!
Thanks for doing your job so good!