Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F) | 0.57 |
| Three Rivers | 0.63 |
| Medium (F) | 0.67 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.67 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.68 |
| Cold Case | 0.72 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.75 |
| The Good Wife | 1.05 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (p) | 1.07 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.20 |
| CSI:NY | 1.22 |
| The Mentalist | 1.23 |
| CSI | 1.37 |
| Criminal Minds | 1.37 |
| CSI: Miami | 1.40 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | 1.42 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.55 |
| NCIS | 1.60 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.67 |
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The premiere ratings for Three Rivers registered a flatline with viewers, and it's now the most likely CBS show to be canceled prior to the end of the season. Based on recent CBS history with underperforming dramas, cancellation prior to November seems quite possible.
Cold Case improved a bit from last week, but is still in significant danger of being canceled before the end of the season. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are low once again, but what's new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday's have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:
- (p) - Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think if they drop one Wed comedy show, it would have to be Gary. If for nothing else, not does it not have as many eps as Christine, but CBS might want to keep Christine for the simple fact that they don’t want another network (ABC) to poach one of their shows.
You really feel Numbers’ ratings, even for Friday, are good enough to fall under “likely” for renewal?
I DON’T KNOW HOW YOU CAN JUDGE A SHOW’S SUCCESS BY JUST ONE SHOW. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STEELERS WERE PLAYING OPPOSITE IT. THIS IS CRAZY!
Tom – I really feel that given the consistency in fridays and the night, Numb3rs is safe.
Nkinsey – I think Accidentally on Purpose is more likely to be replaced with Rules than Gary Unmarried. Gary’s retention out of Christine is a lot better than Accidentally out of Mother. If Accidentally keeps dropping then Rules will replace it by March.
As for Three Rivers, If my prediction is correct, it will be gone after the October 18th airing and replaced with Flashpoint. (Cold Case at 9, Flashpoint at 10). Cold Case will be cancelled by May, so start writing a series finale. I could see CBS dropping Old Cristine and airing Rules of Engagement/Gary Unmarried on wednesdays in fall 2010. CBS should just give Old Christine to ABC, and give Rules a chance. The Good Wife is doing good, but I dont see it returning for 2010-2011. Miami Trauma could temporarily replace Wife by March.
I think CBS & FOX will have the best kept shows – though I don’t watch most of them – if I had a lot of time their shows are what I would be trying & watching first.
Why are you so sure that How I Met Your Mother and Accidentally on Purpose will be renewed? They get much lower ratings than the other shows they air that night. If CBS develops better comedies for next year I wouldn’t be surprised if these got the ax.
I’m hoping that CBS renews Old Christine and drops Gary – but I can also see Old Christine as a part of the ABC Wednesday comedy block, especially since it works so well with both Cougar Town and The Middle.
The best thing would be for CBS to renew it, because there is always that chance that ABC won’t be interested next season, but I think they will most likely be courting it again.
Master – HIMYM has already been renewed for another year I do believe. I feel CBS has a lot of faith in that show. Plus, nearing syndication makes the pot sweeter for that show.
Dan- I’m not worried about Accidentally on Purpose, seeing as how I have no doubt it will be canned and Rules will come back into Mondays. I’m just making a separate case for Wednesday nights. I could see them ditching Gary OVER Christine if it came to that. So the debate isn’t whether they’ll keep it; but the debate is if they HAD to choose to cancel one or both of those programs. In that case, I’m saying they wouldn’t get rid of both, and instead would ditch Gary.
Overall, it is safe to say that CBS is doing quite well with its scripted series.
If Three Rivers debuted that low, I agree, it is likely to disappear quickly. CBS has enough other shows lined up that might score higher ratings. It’ll stick around long enough for the next series to be ready. Maybe Flashpoint will replace it, but CBS also might hold it until spring in case one of the other series takes a nose dive.
@tiffany: series ratings usually go down after the initial premiere. If the show is already low rated, it is unlikely that its ratings are going to sky rocket.
I think Numb3rs should be orange, even if it is on Friday.
Mike G – I think Flashpoint would be good for sundays. The thing is CBS doesnt need any new series if they arent doing great. CBS can keep Cold Case and Flashpoint in the slot until May if they start with that combo in November. If that happens than all of the nights will be set, and The Good Wife would seem like the only drama possibly getting replaced. CBS has Miami Trauma and (If Flashpoint airs sundays) I dont see any other slot that Miami Trauma could go into except tuesdays at 10pm temporarily replacing The Good Wife.
nkinsey – Im not 100% that Mother is already renewed but you can bet that it will get a sixth (and likely final year). While Christine and Gary will last until May. I could actually see CBS letting Christine go (potentially to ABC) and them keeping Gary. Maybe CBS will try the Gary/Rules combo wednesdays for 2010-2011. I just think CBS should give Rules a good chance.
Aside from the numbers, it should be noted that Three Rivers was pretty bad.
I’m new here but how does Castle go from top of the list to not on the list?
Never mind I see that that list is just CBS.
NBC Football gets replaced by The Marriage Ref and Donald Trump’s Apprentice, I think Three Rivers can compete against NBC under those conditions. CBS likes Flashpoint because it’s cheap to produced (in Canada), Flashpoint was always going to be renewed, I heard that before the season even started. Three Rivers may have a chance when the schedule softens in January.
Natalie, Three Rivers isn’t going to make it to January.
noo HIMYM has not been renewed for another season. But im 100% sure that FOX will pick it up (its a fox show) if CBS axe it!
Three Rivers isnt going to make it to November, which lets CBS bring Flashpoint back early.
Please help me understand….Why is there such a rabidity to having Three Rivers replaced with Flashpoint?