On Monday, Nielsen will release -- at least to its subscribers -- the Live+7 DVR data for the week of 9/21-9/27 (premiere week).
Interestingly, rather than just wait for the data and publishing it, CBS has issued a press release today, ahead of Monday's data making predictions about what Monday's data will look like:
CBS's BIG PREMIERE WEEK TO GET EVEN BIGGER ALL-TIME HIGH LIVE PLUS 7-DAY DVR PLAYBACK TO SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST CBS's PREMIERE WEEK RATINGS
CBS's Premiere Week Averages Projected To Increase By About
+1 Million Viewers and Between +0.4 to +0.5 Ratings Points in Key Demos
14 CBS Programs Expected To See Viewership Boosted By More Than
+1 Million Viewers
"NCIS" To Gain More Than 2 Million Viewers and "The Mentalist" Nearly 2 Million More Viewers
11 Programs Anticipate Gains of at Least a Half a Rating Point in Adults 18-49
and Adults 25-54
With DVR playback reaching an all-time high, up +36% versus premiere week last year and up +64% over 2007, CBS Research estimates the Network will see a significant lift in its premiere week ratings when Nielsen releases live +7 day ratings for the first week of the season on Monday, Oct. 12.
Among viewers, NCIS is expected to gain more than two million addition viewers and THE Mentalist nearly two million more, while among adults 18-49, NCIS, Criminal Minds and CSI: MIAMI are expected to see increases of nearly an additional rating point.
"With the growth of DVR penetration and usage, we can no longer evaluate the performance of programs simply based on ratings delivered the following day," said David Poltrack," Executive Vice President, Planning and Research, CBS. "Viewers are now watching their favorite programs on their schedules as well as ours. The industry must now switch our collective focus away from the 'partial' overnight audience reports to the full audience reports when they come out some weeks later. That is when we see the true drawing power of the primetime broadcast network programs, which is only being enhanced by this new technology."
Based on the Network's projections of live plus 7-day viewing versus reported live plus same day ratings, CBS's premiere week averages are expected to see a lift of approximately one million viewers (from premiere week live plus same day average of 11.77m) and between +0.4 to +0.5 ratings points in adults 18-49 (from 3.2/9) and adults 25-54 (from 4.1/11).
Moreover, 14 CBS programs are expected to see lifts of more than one million viewers compared to their live plus same day averages, while 11 programs are anticipated to gain at least a half a rating point in adults 18-49 and adults 25-54 compared to live plus same day ratings.
CBS programs with anticipated lifts of one million viewers or more include:
- NCIS
- THE Mentalist
- Criminal Minds
- CSI: MIAMI
- Two and a Half Men
- CSI
- NCIS: LOS ANGELES
- CSI: NY
- SURVIVOR: SAMOA
- GHOST WHISPERER
- NUMBERS
- The Big Bang Theory
- THE Good Wife
- How I Met Your Mother
CBS programs with anticipated lifts of a half a rating point or more in adults 18-49 include:
- NCIS
- Criminal Minds
- CSI: MIAMI
- THE Mentalist
- Two and a Half Men
- The Big Bang Theory
- How I Met Your Mother
- CSI
- SURVIVOR: SAMOA
- NCIS: LOS ANGELES
- CSI: NY
CBS programs with anticipated lifts of half a rating point or more in adults 25-54 include:
- NCIS
- Criminal Minds
- CSI: MIAMI
- THE Mentalist
- Two and a Half Men
- CSI
- SURVIVOR: SAMOA
- How I Met Your Mother
- The Big Bang Theory
- CSI:NY
NCIS: LOS ANGELES
So these DVR numbers will be included in each shows final numbers?
Until there’s a way to monetize those eyeballs, any gains are meaningless. Unless of course, advertisers want to pay for commercials DVR users will most likely skip.
Greg, Live+7 DVR numbers get added into what Nielsen calls “Most Current” season to date numbers which are a combination of Live+Same Day and Live+7 numbers when available.
However, the way we and most everybody else refer to “final” numbers, they are simply final Live+Same Day numbers which are typically reported towards the end of the following day of the airing. We also get full lists of those final Live+SD numbers every Tuesday for the previous week.
“Most Current” numbers, since they are by definition larger, are gaining fashion for press releases. Plus, since the use of DVRs are increasing, Most Current numbers are more likely to show better comparisons to previous seasons, another press release attraction. They have so far gained little traction for public use outside of press releases, although that may change.
So NCIS will have about 5.8 in the 14-49 Demo.
There are really only old people watching.
Except the young who watch.
Can we please stop using absolutes in any regard.
i knew Ghoast Wisper and Numbers where doing great
Anything that can keep Numb3rs and How I Met Your Mother on the air is excellent news. Those are two shows I would be very sorry to lose if CBS decided that their current seasons (Numb3rs’ 6th and HIMYM 5th) would be their last.
I love The Big Bang Theory and The Mentalist too, but those shows are going to be on the air for years to come. I know TBBT was already renewed for 2010-11 (and I wouldn’t be surprised if it got 2011-12 like 2.5 Men before the current season is over) but The Mentalist has to be a lock for 2010-11 already, doesn’t it?
this makes me happy to see that these shows will keep on going
Can’t wait to see Big Bang’s numbers they are going to through the roof!
“That is when we see the true drawing power of the primetime broadcast network programs, which is only being enhanced by this new technology.”
Ooh, my head. You can’t “enhance” Mother Nature’s previously hidden “true” “drawing power.”