I got a scathing e-mail about how dismissive we were about the Dollhouse DVR numbers. For the record, Bill wrote the post, but I didn't find it dismissive.
To remove a few F-bombs, the general essence of the e-mail was "What's wrong with you people! James Hibberd called the increases enormous, why are you sneezing at them?"
Ah-choo!
Why I am not a fan of the percentage increase metric:
Let's say Bill has $1 to his name and I give him another $1.
Bill has just increased his net worth by 100%! That sounds really good.
Now let's say Holly has $100,000 to her name and someone gives her $10,000. Forgetting about tax implications, Holly has increased her net worth by 10%
Lovers of percentage increase could spin yarns like "Bill improves his lot in life by 100%; Holly by a measly 10%!"
But any even remotely sane person would rather be in Holly's shoes than Bill's in that example.
Dollhouse DVR numbers in their proper context
Dollhouse's gains were enormous in the same way that Bill's gains in the above example were enormous. Not so enormous really, in absolute terms. The percentage increase due to DVR viewing of 50% only appears striking because of the small base it grew from.
Indeed, anyone who watched Dollhouse's DVR viewing last year would have predicted the .5 adults 18-49 rating increases because that's what happened almost every week of the first season!
FOX surely predicted that itself, but surely hoped for better than the live+SD adults 18-49 rating for the season premiere of a 1.0 (and even lower the next week and back up to a 1.0 this past Friday).
In the absolute, the .5 adults 18-49 rating increase was fairly pedestrian and middle of the pack as far as increases due to DVR viewing.
Grey's Anatomy had as many 18-49 year olds watch its premiere on DVR after the night it aired as Dollhouse had for ALL its Live+7 viewing. Grey's increases to adults 18-49 ratings were three times that of Dollhouse. That's right, Grey's 18-49 viewing after the day it aired was 300% better than Dollhouse's!
Dollhouse is like Bill in the example above and Grey's is like Holly. Dollhouse ratings increased by 50% due to DVR while Grey's increased by "only" 22%.
Whose ratings would you rather have?
I'm not dismissive of Dollhouse's DVR numbers
Given the low viewer base, the .5 increases for Dollhouse really are impressive. I doubt they are impressive enough to save it unless the show can grow from a 1.0 live+SD rating. I am not dismissive of the .5 increase, I am dismissive of the 1.0 live+SD rating.
I am also completely dismissive of any real focus on percentage increases. James Hibberd writes the following:
But executives often compare how much a show gained relative to its initial live-plus-same-day number, and to boost your rating by 50% is huge (by comparison, last season's "Dollhouse" premiere gain was 30%).
First, I'd like to believe the real executives at FOX have as much grasp of basic math as I have. I'm pretty sure they do. Dollhouse's gains were up this premiere relative to the series premiere last February because the live+SD viewing dropped by 50%. Sadly for Dollhouse fans, that's the key metric to focus on here, not the DVR ratings increases.
The first season premiere went from a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating to a 2.6 rating once the full week of DVR was factored in, a 30% gain. It almost doubled to a 50% gain this year because of the aforementioned 100% drop in Live+SD viewing.
PR executives perhaps often compare how much a show gained in percentage increases, but besides the PR executives (and other executives, only for the purposes of PR) no other executives focus on those numbers nearly as much as James does. They care about absolute gains. Bank on it.
Unless you would rather go from $1 to $2 than from $100,000 to $110,000 just because the percentage increase of the $1 gain sounds so much better to you!
I lost a little respect for Hibberd after that article.
Does this apply to Stargate Universe’s increases also?
Or is SGU in Holly’s situation? I guess I can’t tell the spin from the actual news.
sounds like logical thinking and common sense to me. although, i think the person who wrote that e-mail was looking for a response like “it’s because we hate dollhouse!” but we all know that isn’t true.
also, does Hibberd always make such a fuss about big dvr percentage increases? it could just be that he’s a big dollhouse fan and saw this as an opportunity to finally spread something positive about the show, whether it’d had substance or not because we all know dollhouse needs to be painted in a positive light in order to not turn away potential viewers who keep reading all those negative headlines.
/run on
Sylvia, SGU premiered on 10/2. While we don’t typically see Live+7 numbers for cable shows (especially cable shows outside of the top 50), the live+7 numbers for 10/2 won’t even be available until next Monday.
At the very least, the DVR numbers seem to have elicited a promise from Fox to air all the ordered episodes.
Except, it seems, not during sweeps when they have to think about paying the bills.
grr_argh, James has been pretty consistent in focusing on % increases going back to at least the numbers for Dollhouse’s series premiere last Feb. I don’t think he’s particularly a fanboy of the show; either in one of his posts or on his Twitter account he’s said that FOX should never have renewed it to begin with.
I just think James really believes that executives outside of PR put a lot of focus on percentage increases. We exchanged some e-mails about it at least once last season. I didn’t change his opinion and he didn’t change mine. Both of us are stubborn, but only one of us is wrong
Also, I think that you mean dismissive.
Mel, NBC aired all of Kings’ episodes last season. I’m pretty sure that had nothing to do with the DVR numbers. I’m not sure we’ll ever know how much the DVR numbers really factored into FOX’s decision versus other factors (cheap cost, wanting a good relationship with Whedon, contractual obligations we’re not privy to, etc).
LOL, I might have meant Diss-missive! But at least I got it right everywhere other than the headline! On a percentage basis, that’s pretty good
But it can’t just be coincidence that a day ago Dollhouse was in danger of being pulled off the air, and now when the DVR numbers come in FOX says it’ll stay on for all 13. right?
Josh, whether it was ever in danger of being completely pulled off the air, we might not ever know.
But, it is apparently at least still in danger of being pulled off the air for November sweeps. Was the announcement that all 13 will air (but when?) due to DVR numbers or coincidental with schedule changes that FOX will soon have to alert advertisers to, and just easing fans tensions ahead of those announcements? What FOX does during November sweeps will probably tip us which it was.
Ya know, if this was season 46 of “Porky’s Landing” (Max Headroom reference) no one would care either way.
But Whedon was on this scene once before, with a show a lot of people liked, and on caprice they just chopped it up and showed episodes at random. By the time I ‘got around to it’ Firefly was GONE. Seven or is it eight years now have gone by, and we’re all a little sore from the desire to get it back, and want Whedon to score well. He’s told some great stories in the past, and when times get tough and he has to make cuts, the stories tend to get even better.
It has to be MAJOR for me to take time out and see a theatrical release. I just won’t go. Can’t afford it, don’t want to: new movies suck. But I’d do it all for that last season of Angel, at least once. That’s how good the stories are, to people who get involved.
(yeah, Star Trek, having been born only three years after it began, was a reason to go to the movies…)
There’s just a lot of people wishing it goes well. And wouldn’t it be great for it to go well on Fox, so there’s a chance of more? That’s why anyone’s paying attention, who isn’t on the roster. Some people just really care for his creations.
I think when you say “dropped by 100%” you mean “dropped by 50%”. If any number “drops by 100%”, it becomes 0. If 10 million drops by 100%, it’s 0. If 1 million drops by 100%, it’s 0.
That said, you’re right about everything else. Dollhouse isn’t going to have a third season. I hope we get to finish the 2nd, at least.
Moda, indeed, I meant 50%
That picture is hilarious. What does Joss think he’s doing, posing with his pretty, pretty actors?
@Jack, making fun of himself, and the various promotional photoshoots, like he always does?
Ummm…so…can I get that $10,000 now?
I don’t understand all these difficult calculations – could you add some graphs to illustrate it?
Holly, it was no accident that *I* gave Bill a dollar, while “someone” gave you $10,000