Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Hank | 0.64 |
| the forgotten | 0.75 |
| Castle (P) | 0.77 |
| The Middle | 0.81 |
| Eastwick | 0.82 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.06 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.23 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.31 |
| Modern Family | 1.31 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.41 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.64 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 2.09 |
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While I don't think it's much for Castle fans to cheer about, the forgotten is definitely more likely to be canceled than their favorite show. Not only has its Index fallen below Castle's, but its ratings are still trending down and even if they stabilize now its Index will continue falling as its average gets pulled down. Any bets on whether Christian Slater will be on a CBS show next season after My Own Worst Enemy on NBC and now the forgotten?
And while Eastwick's Index is still above Castle's, its ratings are trending down sharply, and I'd put its chances of being canceled at nearly as high as the forgotten's.
Among ABC's comedies, Hank is looking even shakier than it was last week, it's certain to be canceled before the end of the season. And while The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, I'm not sure I'd make any plans to watch it next season just yet.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I do wonder if the forgotten would be doing any better with the original pilot cast – maybe Slater is just doomed?
As far as Castle goes I think it plays out its order (which I believe was short) and is off the schedule by mid season. If memory serves ABC has a lot of depth in their mid season replacements.
Yay for production indication.
I still think Castle is at least 50/50 for a backorder. Deep End doesn’t have enough episodes to fill a 10pm slot from Feb. on, Copper is too cheap, and Wife Swap is a last resort.
WOW ABC has a real hard time getting crime dramas
like i said, The forgotten is already FORGOTTEN!
i think abc needs a new greys anatomy spin off!!!
its the only show that actually works for 10pm slot!!!
hope eastwick wont get cancelled untill its 13th episode at least!!
Maybe the dopey small lettering got them.
If it looses to Jay again tonight I think the headline tomorrow will be that its canceled.
private practice only works on thursdays it flopped on wednesdays last season. abc needs to concentrate on growing an audience for castle and using primetime and 20/20 on tues and weds as they are cheaper and usually quite solid in ratings
i really wanna know how Bill does this?hope he sees this plea and responces.Hank maybe done and ABC`s crime shows are surpringsly unpopular.Whatever is in Orange by May 2010i could see being in Mid-Season Replacement in 2011.
Connor, the methods for calculating the Index are explained in the post, my guesses for the colors are usually explained in the text.
@Hogwash – ABC has nothing else to air. Well, I suppose they could whip up some Primetime Mysteries specials to air during sweeps – but how do they share them between Eastwick & The Forgotten’s slots.
Forgotten/Hank/Eastwick will probably all be “soft” cancellations – no backorder, and no formal mention until they are announced dead in May.
The forgotten, Eastwick and Hank will all be gone by January. Everything in green already has a full year, as well as The Middle and I strongly believe Castle will get one too.
Eastwick deserves more of a chance to find an audience. The show is seriously not bad. It also had some good pretty good DVR #s so I think it has a chance. The Forgotten will go nowhere as its just another crime drama. Eastwick is a brand new show. I really hope ABC gives it more of a chance. I doubt Happy Town or The Deep End will do any better.
Hope The Middle will get the second season!
i love eastwick i hope it doesnt get cancelled.
Castle will jump The Middle and Eastwick in the coming weeks, the only reason they’re both ahead now is they had larger premieres but have since started falling.
Christian Slater can be on the Criminal Minds spinoff next season. If that show is canceled within the first year, we’ll all know Slater is cursed.
Is Christian Slater the new Ted McGinley?
Oh man they should seriously considering moving Eastwick behind Desperate Housewives, it would do much better, Brothers and Sisters can move, that’s had a chance to get an audience, I definetly don’t want to see Eastwick cancelled.
I finally got around to watching “Modern Family” and I like it quite a bit. I see it sticking around for at least four seasons.
the forgotten is just bad. My wife loves Christian Slater, so we’ll watch anything he’s in, but the forgotten is way worse than My Own Worst Enemy. At least that show was entertaining (mostly thanks to him).