Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.58 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.65 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.65 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.67 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.67 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.72 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.99 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.99 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 1.10 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.14 |
| The Mentalist | 1.15 |
| CSI (P) | 1.26 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.27 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.30 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.32 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.47 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.49 |
| Big Bang Theory (P) | 1.58 |
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As bad as the ratings were for the Three Rivers premiere, its second week was even worse falling to just a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating. With CBS' recent history of axing its worst performing new drama before the November sweeps, the show's demise may be announced at any moment.
Cold Case keeps getting colder and is still in significant danger of being canceled before at the end of the season. New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are stably low, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for another renewal.
While I don't think Numb3rs is in extreme danger, it's opened enough of a gap between its ratings and those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to be in some danger. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there's a risk it gets canceled.
In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Three Rivers had a 1.6? Travis listed it as a 1.7.
And he was correct, I used 1.7 in the Index, the 1.6 in the copy was a typo. Thanks for the catch, fixed.
I doubt the .1 difference will sway CBS either way when it comes to canceling The Rivers.
CSI: Three Rivers
Taking Leno’s advice…
Wow, look at BBT. The highest rated show on the network, well deserved!
I have to say, as a TV writer who checks all these addictive TV-info websites regularly (Variety, THR, DHD), this is the best of them by far. The most clear information with smart analysis and no corporate agendas looming over everything. Who are you people? I just stumbled onto the website off of Google recently, and now I love it. Smart commenters, too. This is my new web homepage.
Three Rivers already looks like CSI:Miami in the way that it’s shot and edited, as well as how the set looks (with all the high-tech doodads).
Maybe it’ll be more successful if Alex O’Loughlin invests in a pair of sunglasses and learns to strike stiff poses while uttering lame one-liners.
Despite Cold Case’s average, I still think it’ll last the rest of the season if only because of its veteran status. After that, it’ll be gone Without a Trace….
CBS should consiter moving Numb3rs to Sundays at 8 or 10pm and see how it does there,and move Cold Case to Fridays at 10pm – the swap might be a better fit.
Hey Bill, sorry to be a goose-stepping punk-ass Grammar Nazi from Hell again, but every time you update this, you misspell “Fridays” in the (F) factor explanation. It should be “Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with…” and NOT “Friday’s” in your template.
Apostrophes über alles! Heh heh. Oh and as always, thanks for the cool info.
er,that should be Sundays 9 or 10pm
Three Rivers is doomed but I think its worth mentioning that it could be getting an ‘acceptable’ mid-high 2 and still be doomed, sure it would make it through to mid season before getting yanked in favour of Miama Trauma (or whatever the other CBS medical show is) but the CBS schedule is packed so tight that any show, particularly new shows are pretty much dead in the water if they can’t hit a 3+, which is why I’m amazed they ordered more eps of Good Wife this early.
The one exception to that is of course the second comedy block which continues to roll on. I still think if CBS is serious about that block they have to move to one of the established Monday shows (Mother, Big Bang or Men with Mother being the most likely option) to Wednesday. It should be faily crystal clear that Gary and Christine isn’t working.
Ike, I am not immune to the goose-step at times. And copy and paste would have kept the error forever. I will stop it now!
Can anyone think of a show in its fourth season or later that was yanked in the middle of its run? I can’t- Cold Case is safe.
@Michael, If you read the text you will see that this index isn’t predicting whether a show will be canceled immediately, it’s predicting whether it will get a renewal and come back next fall.
Sorry,Holly, I should have been a bit more clear- I mean that it’s safe until the end of its run this season.My Bad.Although, is there a veteran show I’m not thinking of that was yanked in the middle of its run?
Michael, very little chance Cold Case goes away prior to May. It’s just not coming back next fall. As Holly pointed out, this post predicts renewal for *next* season.
Although the copy about Three Rivers does note its likely to get pulled at any moment, I don’t think that’s likely for any other CBS show.
Alex I think that’s a good point about the Wednesday comedy block. I doubt CBS would be willing to take the risk of moving Men, or TBBT to Wednesday at 8. Also it would probably really hurt HIMYM to get moved to Wednesdays. I do think RoE could do well on Wednesday’s that show seems to pull decent ratings wherever CBS puts it. I honestly don’t know why RoE isn’t a Fall Show, it outperforms the new sitcoms that CBS keeps putting out there on Mondays (Worst Week, AoP, etc….)
Trauma, Mercy, Three Rivers…
All ER clones to an extent, and no one’s watching.
I’m going to tick off fans of said shows, but I gotta be honest, I’m glad all 3 clones are tanking. That’s the thing about broadcast that’s really ticking me off these days: the number of copy cat or spin off shows. CSI drives me up the wall with 3 shows, then there’s NCIS. At least the ER clones are tanking.
Maybe, just maybe, the nets may get it into their head to, I don’t know, come up with an original idea for a show?
Worth noting that on the east coast Cold Case started airing 40 minutes late. It’s not even properly tracked this week. Love it or hate it, Cold Cases true performance can’t be gauged until after football season.