Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.48 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.72 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.73 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.77 |
| Community | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.94 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.95 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
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Get your fill of lovely San Francisco outdoor shots in Trauma while they last. My guess is they won't be around much longer. Certainly not next season.
Mercy is in only marginally better shape than Trauma. Maybe the difference between lasting the entire season and getting pulled early. Maybe not.
Because its average has its airings after The Office baked into it, Community looks in better shape than it is. We'll have to see how it settles in its 8pm timeslot. I've changed Parks & Recreation to orange as well (from red). With the general carnage that is NBC's schedule they're going to have to either replace almost every scripeted show (which may happen in the take out the Ben Silverman garbage efforts) or they'll have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Trauma is flat out Terrible. And that’s coming from a guy who saw Dude, Where’s My Car? twice in the theater.
Lol, hilarious that only one of their scripted shows is not below average. Come on 30 Rock, make that two. I also think Parenthood could be a solid second hour of scripted TV though who knows…
The Office- highest rated NBC show
Just cancel Mercy and Trauma. Keep Community and change the timeslots and give 30 Rock the 8p slot.
Trauma was awful. Mercy started out on shaky footing but it’s gotten much better quality wise. It doesn’t look good for that show either but I hope NBC keeps it. I’m not holding my breath though.
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Community’s numbers will go up next week, but the average will continue to decline. Parks & Rec is probably done. Oh well, fun while it lasted.
Wow, The Office really blows the curve for everything else.
I wonder if NBC will cancel Trauma before sweeps week.
Craig, SNF is what is ruining the curve.
Problem is, what are they going to bring in if they pull these shows? Southland was shockingly canceled and Parenthood has been plagued since the beginning and seems to be dead…what else have they got???
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Mike, they have Chuck.
OUCH for “Trauma”. It’s a goner. QUESTION: How is “Mercy” in a plum slot if it has no lead in, AND every show in that timeslot has horrible ratings? I think Mercy will get a full season, and it should, it’s grown to be a pretty decent show… unlike Heroes. I would say “Parks” and “Community” will get their 13 episodes and then be done. Then NBC will move “The Office” and “30 Rock” to the 8pm hour, and put in a new drama- maybe “Parenthood”? at the 9pm hour.
EDIT to my previous comment:
OR- NBC could put “Chuck” in the Parks/Community hour, but that would probally give equally horrible ratings.
P now means “made by network’s production company.” It’s a new thing for the R/C Index.
Im praying for Mercy. Please keep it NBC!
Bill forgot to edit the template for NBC.
Brandon,pun intended?
craigward, “P now means “made by network’s production company.” It’s a new thing for the R/C Index.”
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Nick I’d be willing to bet a weeks pay that NBC will not move The Office from 9PM. It’s just not going to happen when The Office is NBC’s top scripted show.
D’oh! Fixing the P mistake.