Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.48|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.73|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.94|
|The Office (P)||1.56|
Get your fill of lovely San Francisco outdoor shots in Trauma while they last. My guess is they won't be around much longer. Certainly not next season.
Mercy is in only marginally better shape than Trauma. Maybe the difference between lasting the entire season and getting pulled early. Maybe not.
Because its average has its airings after The Office baked into it, Community looks in better shape than it is. We'll have to see how it settles in its 8pm timeslot. I've changed Parks & Recreation to orange as well (from red). With the general carnage that is NBC's schedule they're going to have to either replace almost every scripeted show (which may happen in the take out the Ben Silverman garbage efforts) or they'll have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.