With apologies to Dennis Green for the paraphrase, but when it comes to 30 Rock “they are who we thought they were!” There can’t be any surprises here. No presidential election. No Tina Fey pitch perfect Sarah Palin imitation halo to rise all Tina Fey boats. No surprises.
Though The Office was is down 7% vs. the same night one year ago (4.0 adults 18-49 vs. 4.3) the big deal is no presidential election. In fact, last year on the same Thursday night 30 Rock Didn’t air, but rather the SNL: Weekend Update. It aired after The Office and pulled a 4.2 adults 18-49 rating. Thank you election! Thank you Sarah Palin! So while not great news for 30 Rock or NBC. It’s not a surprise either.
Fringe: no problem
Fringe? I’m not freaking out about Fringe. I wasn’t freaked out last week, I’m not this week and I won’t be for a while.
I don’t love the #s, but FOX was looking to improve their Fall performance, particularly Monday-Thursday and so far, FOX is making it work. They knew Fringe would get hit hard putting it on Thursdays at 9pm. But the Bones/Fringe combo is doing much better than last year. Last night FOX had a 2.4 rating with adults 18-49. That’s up 71% versus last year’s 1.4 when Hole in the Wall and Kitchen Nightmares aired, and sure that’s not much competition, but I look at the bigger improvements to FOX’s fall lineup, not just the Thursday improvements.
Do I think FOX will be satisfied with Fringe pulling a 2.2 forever? No. Maybe not forever, but for quite a while so long as the overall objectives of improving Thursday and improving Monday-Thursday are achieved.
Where else on the schedule could they put Fringe?
While I was editing this I saw Hibberd’s post about Fringe, which raises the question of whether FOX screwed up by putting Fringe on Thursdays? I don’t think FOX blundered, but it brings up the question of where they’d move it even if they wanted to move it. They really have almost nowhere to move it. Sundays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are out (and Friday and Saturday aren’t in play – though Fringe would definitely likely improve Friday’s ratings, I don’t see the JJ Abrams show winding up on Fridays).
About the only thing they can do would be to flip-flop Fringe and Lie To Me. Fringe is a Warner Bros show though, and Lie To Me is a Fox production, so I’m guessing they want to help Lie To Me as much as they can. My guess is if you flip-flopped the shows, their ratings would more or flip-flop as well, so it would wind up a wash. I would like to see them try Fringe Monday at 9pm one night though just to see what would happen.
CSI: Not surprising perhaps, but it still must be unpleasant for CBS.
I wouldn’t exactly say I’m freaked out by CSI. I don’t think anyone can be too surprised, even CBS. We saw last year already the trend that when William Petersen left and was replaced by Laurence Fishburne that CSI took a hit. A new wardrobe for Fishburne hasn’t fixed any of the show’s ratings ails.
It’s hard to be freaked out much by something that doesn’t surprise you; but relative to Fringe and 30 Rock, especially when coupled with Survivor being down it is more freak-out worthy. Some people are even freaked out about The Mentalist. I’m not. The Mentalist bettered the performance of Eleventh Hour one year ago (3.4 vs. 3.2) and that Eleventh Hour had the benefit of a CSI that had a 5.2 adults 18-49 rating (vs. 3.6 last night) as a lead in!
Survivor: Samoa pulling a 3.5 vs. last year’s 4.2 for the Gabon installment isn’t happy either. But that’s down ~17 percent versus a nearly 31 percent drop for CSI. And right or wrong, I just can’t get freaked out about an unscripted show that pulls a 3.5 rating with adults 18-49 and isn’t named American Idol.
I’m just about done with CSI. I get so bored watching it now. I do like Lie to Me. Hopefully, Fox will give it time to get a following.
Robert, I don’t know many who are “freaked out” about THE MENTALIST. I do see folks though, like myself, who are more surprised by THE MENTALIST’s limited growth in Year 2 than by SURVIVOR and CSI continuing to shed viewers in Year 10. Here’s a question, though: where is CSI, ratings-wise, compared to, say, last April-May? Comparing it to its year-ago ratings seems to me to miss the point; those audience went with Grissom. They’re not coming back. Has it CONTINUED to drop since last spring? THAT to me would indeed be “freaky.”
Trying Fringe out on Mondays is pointless, 24 takes over Lie To Me’s slot in January.
Now, Tuesday is up in the air, with Past Life getting their order cut. But it also goes against Fox’s plan, which was to not have to completely shuffle their schedule once AI comes online. Also, if Fringe needs a fantastic lead-in to top 3.0, is it worth keeping in the long run?
And CSI isn’t surprising at all – most of us around here saw the trend and said The Mentalist should have taken over the slot this year. Whether the decline is simple fatigue (notice how L&O collapsed overnight from their peak) or Petersen’s departure, I can’t say.
I’m concerned about Modern Family. They’ve plowed through some big stories already: grandpa bonds with in-laws, grandma returns, adopting a baby, daughter’s first boyfriend, and step-dad bonds with step-son. It seems like they’ve already faced the underlying angst. Other than Jay and his wife, the cast isn’t strong enough to hold interest during mundane plots. Just my opinion.
Tommy, it’s a fair point (comparing to end of season instead of the beginning). I actually agree its the better way to go, but the way Nielsen does the overnight comparisons its compared to the same night one year ago. Indeed, CSI was already in the 3.4-3.6 range last May and ~15,000 viewers. But, it premiered higher just a few weeks ago (4.1 and 16 million).
I don’t find the Mentalist at all surprising. It’s limited growth is with a worse lead-in (and as noted by “Carpe” a later time slot) doesn’t surprise me. Tuesday night NCIS was a 4.5 with 21 million viewers!
IMHO it’s certain that the later time slot and a less compatible lead in are both hurting TM’s growth. However, I am interested to see if the ratings also continue to rise/fall based on how much Simon Baker is in a given episode as they have for the first four airings this season. November should be telling.
Tom, I probably wasn’t clear. I was thinking exclusively in terms of fall scheduling, it’s the fall where FOX never has traditionally competed as well. In the spring, because of Idol, recent history is FOX have competed better than anyone
csi is not csi without grissom
he was the heart of that show
and with his departure the show has suffered
Well u guys were the same about sam who last yr and look it was axed. Fringe isnt doing good at all. Not that i care much its not a show i watch much.
How were we the same on Sam Who? And how is that like FOX actually trying to compete in the fall for a change?
I agree about Fringe. I think although DVR ratings don’t come into play as much as live ratings do, that FOX would be worried more if Fringe didn’t get such a boost from DVR viewership. I think it shows that interest in the show is still what it was last season, but that the new timeslot is a hard one. So, they will take the hit since it puts them in play on Thursday nights, at least for the time being.
I do think Fringe switching places with Lie to Me is the best move and could happen despite the ownership. Many have said that Lie to Me is better paired with Bones and vice versa. But also, I think it was over the summer, there was talk of a Bones and Lie to Me crossover. This seems better suited for shows that air back to back and also shows that maybe they are better companion shows than what’s currently on the schedule.
I don’t think a change is coming anytime soon, but if that crossover comes into play, I wouldn’t be surprised if that helps make the decision to swap the two shows on the schedule.
Agree that nothing to freak about for 30 Rock, although it may slide in post-premiere eps, but for now it’s good.
Fringe really doesn’t have anyplace else to go unless they move it to Fridays which to me would mean they don’t want the show to stay around for long. I think for now it stays where it is. It’s performing good enough right now for what FOX needed in that slot. Human Target gets the Wednesday post Idol slot in January and then Glee will come back in either March or April. Not sure what they plan for Tuesdays, I thought they were keeping Idol two hours there until after the Olympics, but I’m not sure. Does Lie To Me have a full season order? I don’t know where that gets moved to in January when 24 returns.
CSI not freak worthy either. I still think that Mentalist would do at least as well if not better in this slot. I foresee some repeats of Mentalist in CSI’s spot at some point this season and maybe even a 2 hour Mentalist starting at 9 to test the waters for next season. I don’t really think CBS expected the Mentalist to beat CSI this season by airing at 10 instead of 9, so I think it’s performing strongly for them even if it’s ratings don’t show the growth that some thought would happen. Plus, at least it is a young show with the chance for growth, whereas CSI is aging and will just fade further with the exception of some Grissom guest spot episodes.
Before anyone freaks out about anything, presume that a certain percentage decline in Live + Same Day (probably 5%) is due to more DVR penetration and that part of the decline is not a real decline at all, but evidence of viewers proactively recording their favorite shows as more Americans obtain DVRs. After about a GIVEN 5 percent decline, then proceed to analyze further declines from there forward.
“Does Lie To Me have a full season order?”
Not yet, it’s sitting at 13 episodes right now. Fringe has a full season order though (unless I’m mistaken).
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I think Fringe’s numbers are worthy of concern. Hell’s Kitchen outperformed Fringe by a lot Thursdays at 9:00 last season, with Bones as the lead-in. And Hell’s Kitchen is a lot cheaper. The thing is it performs so well for them in the summer that I’m sure they’re willing to leave it like that.
There isn’t really anywhere else for Fringe to go, that’s true. But if say Human Target or Past Lives really rocked it this season, or anything else for that matter, Fringe’s neck is on the chopping block. Its numbers are low enough that it needs others to fail to survive.
I don’t think CSI’s drop is all that freakworthy. I mean if having your flagship show drop from monstrously successful to merely very successful is your biggest problem, then I’d say you’re sitting pretty.
I think Fringe fans *should* actually be freaked out.
Yes Fringe scored a 2.1 last night, up from fox’s 1.4 demo at 9pm last year.
But that was a REPEAT of Kitchen Nightmares! And it’s lead-in was a 1.4 demo from Hole In The Wall!
A better comparison could be in 2 weeks, when Fringe’s year ago competition will be:
8pm: Kitchen Nightmares (R) 1.5 demo
9pm: Kitchen Nightmares (new) 1.8 demo
Even then (if Fringe can stop the sliding) it must be taken into consideration the dramatic increase in lead-in demo that Bones provides this year versus last.
So while I guess its still up for debate as to how freaked out fans should be, id say things are already pretty freaky!
Mumbo, I do wonder if FOX will go the Fall/Spring route with HK though they’re already set up with spring overlapping into summer, and summer overlapping into fall. And it will be interesting to see what happens with two hours of SYTYCD on Tuesdays. I’m definitely not freaked out about Fringe for THIS season.
As for next year, its way too early for me to feel that “its numbers are low enough that it needs others to fail to survive.” You could well be right but I think how FOX thinks about next fall will be a combination of factors including whether 24 comes back for the 2010-11 season and just how well SYTYCD does this fall, and how things continue for Lie To Me,. I’m waiting to see how those things shake out.
Fox, as has been abundantly pointed out, is in Thursday beachhead mode. No need to worry this year, at the very least.
What interests me is what Fox decides to do next Spring/next year if Grey’s and CSI continue to fall. Fringe may be the spearhead for Thursday, but if Fox wants to eventually takeover there, there may be a narrow window opening soon of opportunity and Fringe won’t cut it. House just might (procedural+medical+huge demo)
That doesn’t mean Fringe gets canceled, just rotated to Monday having performed the initial heavy lifting.
The Mentalist is fine. FCS. It’s a 10 pm show with a >3 demo, when does that ever happen, especially for CBS, that’s relentlessly mocked as the old peoples network. It’s really the only of those three shows that cannot be compared to it’s previous year’s performance, because with the time slot the game changed.
I don’t however think it’s fair to call CSI a worse lead in by comparing it to the yet again improved numbers of NCIS. That show is (fortunately for me) a freak of nature gaining momentum in the 7th year. IIRRC the demos it put up last year were more in line with CSI’s numbers and maybe even a little worse when AI hit the scene.
Andrew — thank you for your clarity of thought. “CSI” has been on the air for a decade and has been at the top of the ratings for much of that time. CBS really has nothing to worry about where “CSI” is concerned.
With “The Mentalist” in at 10pm, I would imagine CBS is grooming the program to take over the 9pm slot and swapping time periods with “CSI” next season.
I do contend that CBS should have kept “The Mentalist” in at 10pm on Tuesdays for another season before shifting it to Thursdays for an upcoming tentpole position.