Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.25 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.28 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.30 |
| Fringe | 0.70 |
| Bones (P) | 0.88 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.92 |
| Glee (P) | 1.02 |
| American Dad (P) | 1.08 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.29 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.33 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.49 |
| House | 1.80 |
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Fox's Thursday ratings this fall with Bones and Fringe are way up over last fall (when they programmed dreck). Still, on that brutally competitive night, the ratings for the individual shows aren't much to write home about and fans of Fringe are (not unreasonably) a bit worried. Fringe is at least in some danger, but I still believe Fox had expectations for the night that are close to what they got, and that the show will return next season.
Dollhouse will air during the November sweeps period, but even Joss Whedon is realistic about the prospects for the show. Enjoy the remaining 10 episodes.
10/22 Update: Dollhouse, 'Til Death and Brothers have been pulled from the Fox schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will return with double episodes on Friday's in December. Brothers will move to Sundays. No word yet on the return of 'Til Death.
It’s highly unlikely that ‘Til Death or Brothers survives until next season as well. ‘Til Death’s producers (Sony) will have the episodes they need for syndication, and presumably won’t have an incentive to give the series away to Fox for nearly free again, and Brothers ratings are just plain awful. Still, because those are the only two open half hour slots till football is over, Fox is in a tricky situation if they want to pull just one of them early unless they double up on the other, which wouldn’t seem to increase the ratings either.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I can’t believe your headline didn’t incorporate wordplay. Here’s a show called Fringe and it’s on the fringe of being cancelled. I mean, c’mon.
Too bad FOX has decided to kill American Dad. They’re moving it to 7:30 mid-season.
I’m sure they will use that line eventually but for now I think it’s too early to tell. With it being a JJ show in a tough slot with a good amount of fans still watching on DVR I hope it’ll all be enough.
I think it gets a pass unless the ratings sink further. It’s going to last until at least the 3rd season, but beyond that who knows. FOX is in a tricky situation. It could toss it to Friday which would spell death pretty much immediately, but aside from that there aren’t many other timeslots available.
“Too bad FOX has decided to kill American Dad. They’re moving it to 7:30 mid-season.”
Yeah, and they ar currently producing two new animated shows, so RIP American Dad. By far the best Seth show.
I don’t think moving it to 7:30 means it’s dead. American Dad is pretty much recycled Family Guy jokes, so I’m sure it isn’t expensive to make.
I HIGHLY doubt Brothers will get a back 9 order. Look for its initial run to be it for the show.
For FOX, all your red shows are the ones that WILL NOT make it past this season.
Not worried at all about Fringe. It’s all about stealing market share, not being #1 (or #2-3 either). FOX is jumping for joy this season. November books have always been horrible.
you are not considering the all new episodes of brothers that fox airs sunday’s at 7pm, which actually get arround 1.7 points
Bones were renewed for two more seasons last year, so is there a possibility that it won’t be coming back next year? and if there is (there probably is) possibility it won’t, how bad it has to do rating wise to be canceled?
I like this show.
Antonio, there has only been one new episode of Brothers aired on Sunday, and in the finals it was at 0.8, just like on Friday.
Not surprised by that AD news – look back months ago and I thought any CS success would lead to AD’s departure. (Disclaimer: I (along with most TV critics I’ve read) prefer AD over the rest of the MacFarlane shows. That still doesn’t make it likelier to live.)
And again, Fringe’s survival (and timeslot) is a complicated mix of 24, Lie To Me, Human Target, and Past Life’s chances in Spring 10 & Fall 10. It probably gets a third season, but I’m not putting money on it.
It’s interesting that the best success NBCU has had for several years is here on FOX, isn’t it
Fringe, não concordo com a Fox de colocar essa série às quinta-feira, está caindo muito a audiência, porém acredito sim que a série será renovada para 2010-2011
Go Fringe!!
@Dennis:
Where has it been said that American Dad! is being moved?
What would its index value be if those bottom three weren’t factored in.
Do the added dvr ratings mean anything to the future of fringe? Why don’t they just move it to any night other than thursday?
David, AD is moving to 7:30 in the new year replaced by Sons of Tucsons, Fox annouced this is May.
FOX knew they put it in the firing line when they put FRINGE on thursdays
Be a shame to cancel it when they knew the numbers wouldnt be favorable.
The only worse thing they could have done is put it on fridays and put it in the grave early
this way its just slower
i really like this show its very x filesesque
i hope it keeps goin like castle
@Theoacme
You’re right. “House” is produced by NBC Universal Media Studios and yet it’s doing better than any NBC show.
Looks like this is the first fall in possibly ever where FOX hasnt pulled or cancelled any series. There are candidates (Dollhouse and Brothers) but it seems FOX likes both series enough to atleast burn off all 13 episodes, and Til Death will survive just because of syndication. New drama Glee has been given a full year, as well as sophomore Fringe and likely Lie to Me. FOX has found success with SYTYCD airing fall, as well as their Monday/Thursday drama combos and Sunday animated block. This looks like FOX’s best fall performance in a while.
Rich – Thats true, FOX is trying to develop a new single camera comedy by convienently sandwiching it between The Simpsons and Family Guy, pushing Cleveland to 9:30 and switching American Dad to 7:30. Like how Malcolm in the Middle fit in with the other comedies on sunday, Sons has similiar humor to the animated series.