Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 18, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.49 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.68 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.71 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.72 |
| Community | 0.85 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.90 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.91 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.07 |
| The Office (P) | 1.49 |
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Mercy and Trauma are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. Which will go first? Conventional wisdom is that Trauma's high cost gets it yanked first, but many things can influence that.
Community's average continues to decline, both it and Parks & Recreation have to be regarded as cancel-worthy, but there is a chance amidst all the carnage this season that NBC will have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.
30 Rock's premiere was hardly stellar, it did no better post-Office than Community, but it's in no danger as long as it stays there.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I have no interest in an ER replacement haha
More that sink the better Chuck looks.
I can’t see why Trauma won’t be yanked first. It’s doing worse,it costs more, real EMS workers are complaining,etc. The joke is that it’s living up to its name.
i think mercy is definately developing into a quality show and i dont think its ratings are anything nbc can moan about.
Nobody watches 30 Rock or Mad Men, yet the clueless TV critics continue to gush over these programs. Why are there still working TV critics? We believe them even less than a used car salesman. If NBC was smart (and it isn’t) it would chuck the entire network and go dark. The entire corporate management staff is one big joke and makes bank CEOs look respectable.
Community isn’t going anywhere…NBC had to know it was crushing its ratings by moving it to 8pm. It will get a fair chance to prove its worth.
Is P&R supposed to be red while Community only orange? Community would be at P&R’s level if not lower if the post Office eps aren’t included and they don’t seem to matter in its prospects I think. Plus P&R is produced by NBC while Community isn’t and has the whole from the makers of the Office thing going for it too.
I’m not saying which colors they should be, but it seems to me like they should either be both red or both orange.
Any idea how much SNF is skewing these results? I mean when they lose football their Sunday #s will likely drop at least in half thereby boosting all other scripted shows relatively to the fall. Is it at all significant or just a very small impact?
makes me mad how they bring all these new shows in and just cancel them…NBC needs to get new shows and stick with them
Brendan, they would stick with them, if the ratings weren’t so horrible.
I agree with Bruce. The NBC heads are making some stupid decisions this year. Other than SVU (which I DVR), no other show on NBC is any good. Just have NBC go dark.
L&O on FRIDAY had 2 million more viewers than the endlessly promoted, awarded, congratulated and fawned over 30 Rock. I know, I know, it’s all about the demo. Still, NBC can’t cancel half their schedule so they might as well leave shows on the air that people are actually watching.
Mercy is just a boring show with incredibly uninteresting characters (which seems to be a trend in the medical shows this season). Get rid of it… STAT!
I think “Trauma” goes before “Mercy.” While it’s 18-49 rating is nothing to write home about (and yes, I know that is the most important factor) it is regularly coming in second in its time slot. I think NBC may continue to give it a chance.
It seems almost certain that Trauma will be pulled first. It has stuck at a 1.9 for three weeks while Mercy has only pulled a 1.8 once, usually it’s been higher. I don’t think mercy will see a season 2, but it will definitely last longer than Trauma.
Trauma will be gone by Feb. Mercy will likely get to 18 or so episodes. P&R and Community will air until the end of the season then they may or may not be going. I have a feeling NBC will stick with their Thursday line-up for now.
People whining about Chuck… you can’t compare it to how these shows are doing. It’s yet to air in this climate — it will be lucky to pull 2.0+ in the demo whenever it returns.
Sorry – L&O had 1.32 million more viewers than 30 Rock last week, not 2 million.
The NBC schedule is so weak that the majority of their Monday to Friday schedule gets 2.0 and less in the demos. It is actually easier to pick out the ones that do better than 2.0: Heroes, Biggest Loser and Leno on Tuesdays, SVU on Wednesday and the Office and 30 Rock on Thursdays. That is it, 6 hours out of 15, leaving aside Leno, 5 hours out of 10, there is going to have to be some sort of a cull of underperforming shows, some point where the network says if you can’t do at least this much then you are gone. How do you go into sweeps month in November with such bad results and not expect the affiliates to be up in arms.
Trauma is the obvious choice, it’s ratings are not that much better than L&O who is stuck out on Friday nights. But those involved with Mercy, Parks and Community can’t be sleeping too well these days either.
NBC desperately needs to re-tool its lineup. It’s clear that The Office is the flagbearer and everything around it is hemmoraging viewers.
Personally, I’d be worried about 30 Rock. Yes. I know the show is ‘critically acclaimed’ – but what does that mean when viewers don’t watch? (Oh right. It’s a show about people who write TV shows, and it wins a lot of awards because the awards are given out by people who write TV shows, so they relate. Emmys are such crap.) But losing almost two million viewers and going from a 4.0 to a 3.0 in the 18-49 age group following the office? OUCH!
I want to check if Community performed better in that time slot than 30 Rock did – but it’s hard to find past thursdays numbers on this site. If it did, then they need to move Community back, ship Parks and Rec and 30 Rock off to Fridays so the ‘critics’ can enjoy the crap out of them, and put Chuck into the Thursday 8pm slot to lead into The Office and Community.
Id admit i sometimes wish they would end the only 2 shows on NBC I watch (Heroes and community) that way i can be done with the network and the ratings problem it will likely always have.
Why do the idiots only come to comment on NBC? Bruce, they’re a struggling network in an increasingly competitive environment, giving up is stupid.
I’m basically sure they own’t cancel Community. Despite the numbers, it is their top performing freshman show this fall. Mercy is the top performing new drama, as bad as it’s doing.
If they end up cancelling all of their new fall shows, they’ll look even worse.
Parks & Rec is their only survivor from last season’s disastrous line-up of new shows, but I don’t know if that will do anything to help it now.