Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 18, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P)||0.47|
|Brothers & Sisters (S), (P)||1.03|
|Cougar Town (P)||1.23|
|Private Practice (P)||1.33|
|Desperate Housewives (P)||1.58|
|Grey's Anatomy (P)||1.93|
Ugly Betty is back, and it got terrible ratings for its premiere. Not surprising and unlikely ABC expected much more. It only returned to get enough episodes for syndication which it will have by the end of this season. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It's not 100% out of the question, but it's a real longshot.
While the forgotten's ratings have stabilized, they've stabilized in the "do not renew" zone and Hank is as dead as it ever was. And while I still think Castle is unlikely to get another season, it's once again looks to be the best of a bad lot of 10pm weekday dramas for ABC. That gives it a small ray of hope.
Update: Castle's received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. The Index predicts only what will happen for *next* season (as stated rather clearly in the bold text at the top, but perhaps it's better to not read it and be "surprised")
The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn't make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it's not red now is that I've learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.