Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 18, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.47 |
| Hank | 0.59 |
| the forgotten | 0.72 |
| Eastwick | 0.73 |
| Castle (P) | 0.75 |
| The Middle | 0.76 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.03 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.15 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.23 |
| Modern Family | 1.25 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.33 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.58 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.93 |
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ABC says Eastwick is a quiet success. Perhaps they'll be quiet when they cancel the show, because it has zero chance of getting another season. But it does have a crazy fan "Save our Show" campaign!
Ugly Betty is back, and it got terrible ratings for its premiere. Not surprising and unlikely ABC expected much more. It only returned to get enough episodes for syndication which it will have by the end of this season. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It's not 100% out of the question, but it's a real longshot.
While the forgotten's ratings have stabilized, they've stabilized in the "do not renew" zone and Hank is as dead as it ever was. And while I still think Castle is unlikely to get another season, it's once again looks to be the best of a bad lot of 10pm weekday dramas for ABC. That gives it a small ray of hope.
Update: Castle's received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. The Index predicts only what will happen for *next* season (as stated rather clearly in the bold text at the top, but perhaps it's better to not read it and be "surprised")
The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn't make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it's not red now is that I've learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
It might be stupid of me but I’m clinging to that small ray of hope that ABC sees how well Castle does in the 10 pm hour compared to all the other shows that have performed there.
The show’s title is Eastwick, not Eastwood.
D’oh! I have Clint on the brain! Fixed
That’s not stupid, Lee. For ABC’s 10PM competition (only M-W & F-S), it’s king of the crap hill; meaning its ratings aren’t very rosy, but better than others. It’ll see a full season for sure; but getting renewed might completely depend on how ABC does Jan-May 2010.
Hank, the forgotten, Eastwick and The Middle can´t possibly survive.
Castle and Ugly Betty I think will get another season.
I’ve been playing dumb for a long time about shows like eastwick, DSM, Womens Muder Club, Men in Trees etc and I feel I have to continue to do so. Nikki Finke and the lobbey who further her agenda are not obnly influential beyond their numbers, they actually have an ostensioble poimnt about male chauvinism … bnecause the key male demo has proved predictable in its love of sports and rtaunchy humor, and nobody – including Darren Starr, including Cherry, including Whedon, including sites like Jezebel – have figured out how to tap the female demo cut lose from predictability by the death of the two parent, women stays at home family – which is a given and irreversible – has put the balls up in the air. Disney does a good job manipulatimng girl til uh, well, you get it. After that … But I will play dumb. I have said before I don’t like the dramas on TV now. Without eroticism, life is dull, and TV is supposed to be a reflection of life. I’d rather watch Saw and its sequels than the pale PG/CSI/SVU pinchbeck copy. A woman, from a military family, but somewhat liberal, tuned me on to NCIS … Goethe said, or some German maxim he stiole from said, ” God wants what women want …
Yeah, all the shows in red, expecially Betty & Eastwick deserve to be cancelled. Come on ABC, I’m pretty sure you’re better than this!
very happy that private practice its doing well!!it one of the most succesfull abc shows right now!!(thanks to greys anatomy of course!!)abc should definetely consider a second greys antomy spin off!!
so sad about ugly betty!!!:( friday’s episode was so..so good!!its more funnier than any sitcom!!i cross my finger that abc wont cancel it through the year and give it a proper series finale or even better renew it!!(i dont give much hope on that)
eastwick is such a great show!!!why abc dont put it after desperate housewives?????10pm on sundays doesnt have big competition!three rivers is dead and brothers & sisters is a stablish show!!dhw & esw is a such a great combo!!!
jay, proofread.
If anything will get a backorder, it’s Castle. That said, I could easily see ABC wanting to use Mon. Dancing as the launching pad for a new show following it- meaning Castle’s backorder probably depends on whether ABC has two other shows for Tue/Wed 10pm from February on or not.
And again, unless Lost gets a 10pm slot, all ABC has is Happy Town and various reality fillers. (Deep End is only 6 episodes, Copper is a Canadian-budgeted show.) Though I could see Flashforward continuing to decline and getting yanked off Thursdays.
All in all, ABC is the network to keep the closest eye on, as they have the most movable pieces.
via e! online
Eastwick Is Not Dead (Yet): Despite disappointing ratings thus far, our insiders reveal that ABC isn’t giving up the fight just yet and is planning a promotional push to try to save Eastwick. Maybe mind-control babe Lindsay Price can pull a Matt Parkman and get the show to live in another show’s body?
i suppose these r god news for the show!!
Anyone notice a pattern? Last year, when Lindsay Price was on Lipstick Jungle, people kept claiming the show wasn’t really cancelled LONG after it became obvious that it was. Now, everyone’s claiming that it’s not over for Eastwick yet.
Seriously, Jay, what in the world? First off, your typos are incredible (unless “raunchy” DOES have a silent “t” – if so, I’m sorry). Secondly, you contradict yourself likes crazy. My advice is, if you have a few extra bucks, hire an editor. For the life of me, even after I figured out what you meant most of your words to be, I failed to find a point to your post.
I’ll give up television if ABC keeps Eastwick over Castle.
I hope eastwick doesnt get cancelled, i love the show and its getting really good.
I will fight for eastwick any way I can. Love the shoe!!!
Tom, there’s also The Bachelor. After the huge ratings last year, I could see ABC extending it to cover all of spring, instead of just through March. But if not, a show like The Deep End, with only a 6 episode order, could share the spot. There really isn’t anywhere to put Lost other than 8 or 10, since ABC is doing decently at 9 throughout the week, and I expect to see it at 10.
I think ABC is willing to take a chance with The Middle because they think if they can pair it with something that works the numbers will improve.
ABC should have moved Castle in the off-season and put Eastwick behind DWTS; I think that would have been a much better demographic match. I wouldn’t recommend it now, however, as I think it is too late to save Eastwick and an in-season move would probably harm Castle.
Castle just keeps climbing the charts even though the ratings are flat (bad news for the network). Next week it will almost certainly overtake The Middle. Castle is going to end up in the same place it was at the end of last season as either the worst performing show to get renewed or the best performer to get cancelled. I’m starting to think (and certainly hope) it will be back as ABC is going to have plenty of other holes to fill.
@Julia: Bachelor counts as reality filler. Also, what do you replace it with in winter?
And I continue to disagree with you that Lost is 8 and 10 only. Given how Dancing results continues to decline, ABC could decide to sacrifice it 8 and move a real drama to T9 (which also helps to get said drama out of the way of AI). MF & (especially) CT’s ratings are still moving around enough that I would not consider their scheduling sacrosanct at this point either.
Your probable point, that nothing succeeds after Lost, is true… but nothing works at 10 period (aside from GA spinoffs, and only when directly after GA) for ABC.
Eastwick is actually pretty ok. I think with a slightly different mix of people and writing it could have been a hit. It’s like 80% there. Too bad, because I really like the concept and some of the actors.
And I’ll be glad to not have to hear about Ugly Betty anymore.
Tom, you think that Lost wouldn’t work at 10? I think the audience will go where ever ABC puts it for its final season, including ABC’s horrible 10 pm. And considering DWTS is falling so much due most likely to reality competition on Fox, I don’t see them throwing it under the Idol bus.
As for Bachelor, it normally airs Jan-March. It wouldn’t be too difficult to turn that into Jan-May. Push it back a bit in January to start at the end, rather than the beginning, which won’t make too much of a difference for ABC, and add a few more filler episodes. Piece of cake.