Yesterday Robert posted about NBC perhaps wavering in it's "managing for margins" focus, and an article in the WaPo, Lisa de Moraes weighed in on the same topic (and quoted the same piece from The Wrap):
"The goal is not to manage for margins. It is to put the best possible programs we can on the air," Gaspin said in Thursday's blockbuster announcement in an interview with Web site the Wrap.
Is NBC really changing its tune? or is this just talk meant to deflect some of the withering press criticism?
Let's look at NBC's actions instead of its words.
Managing For Margins
- Mr. Jeff "Managing For Margins" Zucker is still in charge of NBC Universal (and Gaspin's boss)
- Biggest Loser spin-off deal signed. Although, considering how relatively well BL does this might also be managing for ratings!
Managing For Ratings
- Recent deal with JJ Abrams (Lost)
- Recent deal with Jerry Bruckheimer (CSIs)
Neither
- Cancellation of Southland. Widely viewed by the TV press as margin management, I think that's just PR from the producer to cover the fact that the show had lousy ratings and should have been axed last spring.
Bottom Line: It's way too early to tell which way the wind is really blowing at NBC.
Them RENEWING “Community” would be a fantastic way for them to prove that they are indeed “managing for margins”.
Ya wanna make a statement, NBC? That’s the way to do it <3.
Although bringing back “Southland” would be nice, too, but I’ll try and be realistically optimistic….
NBC next year;
Mondays:
Biggest Loser Spin-off
Jay Leno
Tuesdays
Biggest Loser
Jay Leno
Wednesday
New Show
L&O SVU
Jay Leno
Thursday
Community
New Comedy
The Office
30 Rock
Jay Leno
Friday
Dateline
Jay Leno
melybe i completely agree with you!! but mondays should have better dramas instead of trauma like something different and unique
We are only 1 month into the fall schedule, can we really speculate what’s going to be the line up next fall? Mid-year shows might turn out well, but I honestly think NBC would be killing themselves by having BL two nights with Leno. Same demo, limited advertising possibilities
Is this really debate-worthy? Zucker focusing on margins is just his response to being destroyed in ratings. And even his margins are being creamed, especially with Jay killing their 8-11p average. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not blaming Jay’s show for NBC’s woes, but their nightly rating’s average is getting sad. NBC should just drop their 10P, offer that time to NBC affils (and give them a discount on Leno, which should be treated as a syndication-type product). That way, they can sharpen their 8-10p averages.
Granted, they will never do that.
NBC should have kept Chuck on it’s fall schedule. It has a loyal following. When it comes back in 2010, it should get much better ratings than anything NBC has on Mondays now. “Bring Back Chuck Early”
Im hoping Chuck does well so NBC can launch a “Spy Night” For Fall 2010.
8-Chuck
9-Untitled JJ Abrams Drama
Also maybe another Law & Order.If NBC want to fight back they need another Law & Order.I also hope Persons Unknown does well because people are saying its “The TV`s Saw”.
I hope the new NBC team can pull NBC back on track.
A spy night would be epic. I’m thinking Wednesday
NBC should move America’s Got Talent to either September or January. They need those kind of numbers now more than they did in the summer.
Considering that NBC handed over 33.33 percent of their entire week to Leno, I would say this “are they managing for margins” business isn’t even a question. I mean, how can you even pretend they are not and keep a straight face?
Do I understand why they did it? Sure. But do I think it was a good idea? Not on your life. The ratings are tanking even faster than I had thought they would. And that is after the curiosity factor was much larger, and resulted in much higher numbers, than anyone every imagined it would be that first week.
So they got an even better launch than they could possibly have hoped for, and now they are getting even worse ratings faster than they could possibly have feared. I had believed it was worth trying on a short term basis (1 or 2 years) just so they could concentrate on getting something going from 8-10, but that appears a fool’s dream now.
If Leno is still on five nights a week next season, NBC will have thrown in the towel completely. And expect to see local news at 10 instead in many cities around the country, as they jump off the Leno show entirely.
So they got an even better launch than they could possibly have hoped for, and now they are getting even worse ratings faster than they could possibly have feared.
I’m sure you think that’s true, Schmoker, but I am not sure NBC does (and mostly I doubt they do). The premiere was perhaps better than they could’ve hoped for, but given how they were managing expectations even before the premiere, I do not think the current results are particularly surprising to them, especially in light of how relatively mediocre Trauma and Mercy have performed.
I say that because the current ratings don’t surprise me at all; but the bigger question is whether today’s (or last night’s) 1.6s work out to be a 1.2 three months from now. If that’s the case, it will definitely be more alarming (though given costs, I’m not sure how alarmed they will really be even if that happens).
But I think everyone can count on NBC keeping Leno on all season. NBC seems hesitant to make ANY changes (has not canceled Trauma yet!) ahead of a potential sale…
Leno is cheap and it looks cheap, and that’s the trend at NBC right now.
NBC is in a holding pattern until the ownership is decided. Considering what a loser NBC is and now Universal as well, Vivendi must know it can do better. It’s extremely likely that Comcast will be the new owner, because GE is a motivated seller and Comcast is a motivated buyer. Last week, GE’s CEO expounded on how wonderful Jeff Zucker is and how Zucker will continue to helm NBCU. What the GE CEO was really saying was, “Hey, Vivendi, you want to keep your 20% stake in NBCU, then we’re going to keep knucklehead Zucker in charge. He’s grounded NBC to dust and brought Universal to its knees in three years. Think your share will grow?”
GE is in dired need of cash. It’s financial division is strangling the rest of the company. Just last week, GE’s CEO proclaimed to Wall Street that his company doesn’t need cash. CEOs don’t make I-don’t-beat-my-wife-like denials unless they are.
Comcast is under siege from AT&T and Verizon. Comcast used to have the upper hand with the triple plays in cable TV, wired phones and internet. Now the tables have turned, the telecom oligopoly twins have the triple plays and one other play that Comcast cannot do: wireless internet.
I don’t think Leno will be dumped this year, Robert. And I don’t even really believe they will dump him next year. But to me, that is throwing in the towel, because I do think that the ratings have flattened out faster than they thought they would. Yeah, they managed expectations ahead of time, but there is no doubt that some part of them thought it was possible that Leno might actually pull real numbers; that a nightly talk show just might actually work for real, rather than as a place marker; that a 3.0-something could happen for them, and that mid 2.0′s were a real possibility.
That dream has died hard and fast, Robert.
And a 1.2, no matter the low cost of the show, would be a total disaster. Because a 1.2 three months from now means below 1.0 is coming down the pike.
In any case, the big deal here is what this is already doing to the affiliates. Their local news shows are already down 15-30% reportedly, so already NBC must be getting back channel bitching up the ying-yang. And if they are really down that much in local news that fast, imagine where they are heading. We will see a very public fight between NBC and the affiliates eventually, and that will really be ugly and humiliating.
And the fact that they have some major network-owned affiliates means that—yet again—NBC is going to feel it in their own pocketbook. Whatever they are making on Jay might not make up for what they are going to lose (already are losing???) from those network-owned newscasts. Not to mention how all of this (THIS being Jay and everything else that is going horribly for them) is depressing the network’s value at a time while they are trying to sell it.
Plus, didn’t NBC guarantee 1.5 to national advertisers? It’s not even November and they are already having trouble meeting that, aren’t they? Even against a rerun they dipped below that the other night. Whatever you think the low cost of producing Jay’s show might be doing to help them sell the network, you are overestimating that factor. It’s not that important to any potential buyer. Network costs at any hour are not a factor, because any show can be dumped at any time. There are no guaranteed deals, for the most part, in television, so no potential buyer is tied to what the selling network is programming at any hour.
All a buyer sees is that NBC right now is a disaster area, on par with the CW, and below Univision at times. It’s going to be a Herculean task to rebuild their schedule, and potential buyers can see that, thus they are going to low ball GE big time.
I can see how you’d say that NBC was prepared for all of this to happen, but I don’t think they were prepared for ALL of THIS to happen. And being prepared for the worst still doesn’t make it acceptable. It doesn’t make it OK.
Leno’s not going anywhere, Robert, I know that. I agree with you there. But that fact makes NBC even more pathetic, not less.
NBC floated out numbers like 1.8 and 1.5 and 1.3 to the public, which to me means they thought the show would wind up in a range of 1.3-1.8! Where was the dream in that sort of range? As soon as they said “a 1.8 would be a home run” you knew (or should’ve) that NBC wasn’t dreaming big.
You seem to have some kind of an axe to grind with NBC, Shmoker, I don’t. Relative to the other broadcasters it was already pathetic when it came to the ratings. It’s still pathetic but with better profit margins, at least for the 10pm hour. I’m not sure the bean counters who would do the due diligence in any sale would see it the same way you do, and NBC is just one piece of NBC Universal.
I do seem to have an axe to grind, Robert, but I really don’t. Still, it does piss me off to see 5 hours of real estate going to waste. I’d like those hours to find a good show I can enjoy. So I would hate this move even if they were succeeding, but it just burns my ass to no end to see it failing as badly as most people thought it would, only faster.
But I don’t hate them personally. I just get appalled at how poorly they run their business. It takes a special kind of stupid to screw up this badly. Stupid people do manage to rise to the top in this world, and it does drive me crazy when I see it. It drives me nuts in my every day life, and it drives me nuts when I see it at a network, or in a sports team, or in the White House.
I guess I need to switch to decaf.
Still, I do think the 1.8 comment was total BS, designed to take public heat off them in case they went there, or below, because they knew that a 1.8 or lower was already going to bring them all sorts of private heat. They had to know that numbers this low would kill their affiliates, and that that fact would never be acceptable long term.
Do you think I am wrong about the affiliates, because you don’t seem to address that? Do I have that wrong? I have worked in local television, and I know that local newscasts are the cow that floats all the rest of the barnyard animals (to totally mash-up several metaphors). Messing with local news ratings has burned affiliate network bridges in the past, has it not?
As for NBC just being one part of NBCU, I brought that up in reaction to hearing so much about how Leno’s low cost would be appealing to buyers (including right here on this site). That argument has been tossed around, so it’s a little disingenuous for people to now say that what’s happening at NBC is just a small part of the NBCU deal. Hey, MSNBC and USA are doing great for them, and SYFY is doing well, too, but NBC is a BIG part of NBCU.
Hell, it’s the first 75% of the letters, for gosh sakes.
Schmoker: I don’t think you’re wrong about the affiliates, but my guess is (and has been) that outside of the owned and operated (which don’t have a say!) NBC doesn’t really care that much about the bellowing. That’s not to say that the affiliates don’t care, but local affiliate news is increasing in its irrelevancy anyway and whenever I hear them carp it is hard for me to separate how much they hate not being very relevant any longer from whatever the particular issue (Leno, for example) is.
Though clearly the comments from NBC were intended to manage expectations somewhat, I don’t think you manage them that low if you’re dreaming big. I honestly believe their reasonable expectation was on average a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating.
Local news may be irrelevant, but it’s still the #1 money maker for most stations. And if NBC owned and operated stations are also losing money from lower ratings for their newscasts, then I can’t see how that helps NBC.
But I do wholeheartedly agree with one thing you said: NBC doesn’t really care much about them. And that’s NBC’s big problem. They seem to be run by people who don’t seem to give a damn about anything but feathering their own nests, at the expense of their company.
You don’t fall this far for no reason. It takes both incompetence and stupidity and selfishness. Blaming it solely on the change in viewing patterns only is more of the same thinking that put NBC into this hole.
I’m not trying to get the last word. Just find all this interesting. I could be wrong about all of this, I suppose. It just all seems so basic to me, however.
The NBC affiliates deal is renewed in 2011 if I remember?
I agree with Roberts statement that NBC don’t care about a large number of the affiliates, purely because actions speak louder then words. However stepping back from the minutiae of the who Jay/NBCU/Comcast thing for a moment and reasserting something I’ve said on here before.
The existing model of production and distribution for TV is fundamentally broken and has to change.
Historically the game has always been about distribution control, he who controlled the networks controlled the game. Then when cable started to explode the market started to fragment, however it took a while before cable consolidation allowed some cable companies the revenue stream to start production.
Now the game is starting it’s end game shift, distribution will move to the web for an increasing and hugely important part of the demographic (18-34). By 2020 I would expect 50% of that demographic to be receiving most (if not all) of it’s scripted drama on some kind of time delay platform (DVR, MythTV, Hulu whatever). The cost for entry of production will tumble as green screen technology and offshore production allow creative people the opportunity to see their vision developed for a fraction of the $3m per episode that we hear bandied around (Sanctuary for example has a production budget of about $750k per episode I have read). Let’s be honest if you could produce a show that 5m people around the world are willing to pay a dollar (less then the cost of the DVD) to watch and distribute it on the web you’d be a very happy producer. The routes to market going forward will change substantially.
Now I’m not saying all the networks are going to go bust but at least one and possibly two are (going bust may just involve giving up doing scripted drama). By 2020 I would expect CW to be gone and on it’s current form NBC as well, I would have said Fox rather then NBC 5 years ago. In 10 years rather then people sitting on the sofa to watch NBC they’ll sit on their virtual sofa’s watching twittervision.
The threats and opportunities are great, but the existing model is broken.