I wrote at the end of July that it was way too early to write Conan's epitaph, and at that point Conan's Tonight Show hadn't come close to losing a week in the important adults 18-49 ratings to Letterman's Late Show. Fast forward 3 months, and a Letterman office romance/extortion scandal later, and the ratings trend is definitely not Conan's friend.
Since the beginning of October (and the Letterman scandal), Letterman has topped Conan twice and tied him once for weekly adults 18-49 averages. The last time that Letterman's Late Show beat (then Leno's) Tonight Show for a week's adults 18-49 rating was in 2005.
Conan's Tonight Show has certainly frittered away Leno's long time lead over Letterman's Late Show, the big question is whether the current trend is just a post-scandal bounce for Letterman or whether it's the shape of things to come.
Update: In response to comments that even posting this question is "absurd":
Imagine that TVBTN was around during Leno’s “Hugh Grant” (1995) moment, and I’d written “Letterman’s Late Show Ratings Lead Is Gone, Can He Get it Back?”
Would that have been absurd? Because afterwards Leno passed Letterman and Letterman was then behind for the next 14 years.
Of course only time will tell if this is a long term shift, but it’s happened before, how can imagining it be absurd?
The trend lines above are 4 week moving averages.
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
I say its gone for good. Conan just isn’t that funny or exciting. Letterman really isn’t much better but at least his monologues are funny.
Looks bad for Conan and adds to NBC’s whoes. But Letterman did get a boost due to his scandal.
Would Leno EVER under ANY circumstance return to the 11:30 time slot? Is that even a possibility?
gbd, I say no, at least not THIS TV season, but I think you’ll see a ton of speculating about it all season long anyway.
You’re onto something, Chris. The one thing with Conan’s 12:35 show was that the bad jokes in the monologue became their own mocking-type joke. At 11:35 the monologue HAS to be funny since you’re dealing with more than insomniacs and the otherwise sleep-deprived.
Leno’s Tonight Show was better — even better than the Jay Leno Show now. Conan is a bore, and not likeable. He has driven away his audience with his lack of humor and bad guests. He was much better at Late Night. If NBC was smart, it would cuts its losses, give Leno the Tonight Show back again and sack OBrien.
Personally, I would rather watch Leno later or Nightline.
Maybe NBC should have hired Jeff Dunham & the puppets to host The Tonight Show.
I have trouble believing that the scandal explains everything. I mean Letterman has only spoken of this mess twice since it happened. I can understand the scandal leading people to watch if Letterman were addressing it, via jokes or whatever, on a semi-regular basis. But would the scandal really compel people to tune in just see him putting on the same show as usual? If it were only the scandal, it seems like there would’ve been some falloff by now.
Andrew, I think the question is, and I don’t think it’s answered yet, was the scandal Letterman’s “Hugh Grant Moment”, referring to the Leno/Grant interview which caused Leno’s Tonight show to move above Letterman’s Late Show ratings effectively for good.
NBC CAN’T put leno anywhere else. Why? Well, they would have 1 hour of program to fill. With what i ask you. They dont have shit.
Can you guys put up a chart of the daily ratings over the same time period?
tw neither Conan or Leno are going anywhere this year, and probably not next year either. Before NBC makes any changes to late night they need to fix primetime. They need to leave Leno on at 10, and fix 8 and 9 O’clock with a total reboot (IMHO). After they get 8 and 9 fixed (if they can at this point) then they can focus on what to do about late night, but for the time being I don’t see them making any changes unless things really really go bad in the coming months.
The scandal has been heavily covered by all the news media (including an EW cover). This heightened awareness of Letterman and thereby increased viewer interest and tune in. Whether this tune in lasts is anyone’s guess at this point.
Conan O’brien, the red headed destroyer,(yes I, like Letterman, recycle my own material…..and, like Letterman it’s mediocre)can always count on his advantage in 18-34, though most of them are holdovers from Late Night that refuse to believe he lost every ounce of his talent (and not one bit of his uglyness) 2 years ago (Jon, be nice). Why??? I hate him….Jon, are you saying that his 18-34 advantage is only because of dumb kids that aren’t smart enough to watch the daily show??? Not that Stewart’s audience isn’t retarded conspiracy theorists, but Conan’s “young following” isn’t anything to champion. Kind of like…..I dunno,……maybe Razorblade Suitcase without “Swallowed”.
Or the Pink Fallomingo.
If you look at the graph, the trend for Letterman didn’t start with the scandal – it started a few weeks before, with the beginning of the new season. According to the graph, Late Show even had a bigger surge before the scandal than after it.
Does the fact that Dave has a much better lead-in and promotional platform from the 10 PM shows factor in? Sure, but that’s only part of the picture.
The Late Show has just been flat-out booking the hell out of the show. It’s great to have promos on the #1 shows at 10, but even better if you’re promo-ing President Obama, Bill Clinton, Steve Martin & Martin Short, Tom Hanks, etc. Plus, Dave seems more comfortable and engaged in the show, and viewers are liking what they see and returning.
Late night is a long-haul endeavor, though, and I sure wouldn’t count Conan out yet. I’m quite surprised, though, that they haven’t made some simple tweaks to the show to make it more inviting. The show just seems to keep chugging along with few changes to the structure and content. At some point, changes will simply have to come.
I’m not worried. Jesus, its a few months into the Conan era, and some are freaking because his numbers aren’t Lenos. That was to be expected. They are compleyely differnt hosts. For one, Conan is funny(sorry, just wanted to take a shot at Leno). He’s new to some, and they have tuned out. That was always expected to happen. Conan is not going anywhere. He will eventually find his fanbase in this new timeslot. Dinosaur Dave will rvrntually be put out to pasture where he can sexually harass women who aren’t his employees.
Robert,
As I know so little of the behind the scenes I’ve no idea if or when an 11:30 Leno return would be possible. I would think if NBC could find some cutting edge shows such as a MadMen, the next Sopranos, if they could think outside the box for their weekly 10:00pm time slot and then promote and hype 24/7 the return of Leno while using the time to promote their new shows? I think Conan might even welcome a return to his old time slot and the local 11:00 affiliates would surely be on board? What an opportunity for some badly needed publicity to garner interest? You know more about it than I. I jsut don’t see how they can continue this schedule. OH! I’ve been wondering too. With these economic times? Why hasn’t a variety show popped up on TV. Some kinda morph between Carol Burnett, SNL or Laugh In?
Scandal ALWAYS helps a show. Remember when Leno first took over. He was not doing that great. Then he was the first to get the Hugh Grant interview after his prostitution bust. His ratings then took off, and he beat Letterman consistently. Dave has sex with his employees, is blackmailed, and admits it on his show. National coverage ensues. Ratings go up. Conan just needs to get caught having sex with Triumph the Insult Comic Dog in a seedy motel room and he will be a huge success!
One of Conan’s weaknesses is in interviewing guests. He simply can’t stop looking at the blue card. Even when he’s giving his fake laugh at something the guest has said, he’s still looking at the blue card. No other late night host does that. Doesn’t he have cue cards off camera for him to look at?