Since there will soon be nothing left to lose, anyway – might as well try an approach that is at least working for someone on some platform somewhere, as opposed to the approach they’re trying now, which is not working at all.

But the other reason is the Leno was good. So the bump helped viewers see what they were missing. With Letterman, viewers who are watching for the scandal are simply reminded of why they stopped watching him in the first place. Reminded that he is a old fogey whose comedy is stuck in the Carson era, who thinks that it is hilarious to find out if things will float in water, and thinks that audiences wnat an entire week dedicated to ventriloquists. Except it is not 1975 anymore, and this is not the Gong Show.

Adam Carolla is also a funny guy.

On Adam Carolla’s podcast, which consistently ranks amongst the most popular downloads on itunes every week, Adam simply sits in his warehouse and talks to someone or rants about funny things. He doesn’t have preproduced bits or an army of producers, consultants, writers, or executives, micromanaging him as Jay does.

My solution for NBC, if they want to try to pull this out, since they have nothing left to lose, is to scale the show back to the bare bones, and let Jay sit there for an hour and just be Jay. We already like him, that’s been proven by his success at 11:30.

Hey, NBC is cost-effective, right? Fire most of the staff. So far, they haven’t helped. The problem is not Jay Leno, it’s The Jay Leno Show. Be truly cost-effective and let Jay BE the show. Get out of the way, and let Jay be his compelling and interesting self, as Adam Carolla is his compelling and interesting self on his podcast. The model is already working on the internet, NBC simply needs to adopt the model to TV, with Jay, which they totally could.

All they have to do is stop overthinking it.

If he could do ONE thing that he has not stolen from other sources I might tune in but 90% of his show an be heard everyday on Howard Stern (because that is where he gets most of his ideas – including Jaywalking)

Fallon is beating Ferguson in all key demos, so as long as that’s happening, NBC has nothing to worry.

Leno’s show is an hour of late night programming, no matter what time of the night it’s on. People who liked Leno don’t even have to change their viewing habits — they can simply set the Tivo/VCR/DVR to record Monday to Friday at 10pm and continue to watch when they always did, with the added bonus of skipping the commercials. And those who get their regular comfortable shoe of a Leno show are not likely to want to get another whole hour of the same late night shtick from Conan, especially if they never bothered to stay tuned in for him before.

And for all those who say he’s going to take time to hit his stride. How exactly? Unlike Leno when he took over, everybody already knows Conan from the thousands of shows he’s done, and they’ve already formed an opinion. And they haven’t exactly been brimming with new ideas in late night programming to help him either. It’s the same old stuff that it’s always been all these years and people are already getting their fill of it from Leno at 9pm.

I would be amazed if NBC didn’t see this coming. And I would be even more amazed if they believe that this is just a temporary blip until Conan “finds his feet.” As long as the “King of Late Night” is still doing his thing, it won’t matter what Conan does, he’s not going to get the ratings he inherited from Leno — not even close.

Maybe this has been the plan all along but NBC is being diabolical and rolling it out gradually?

I guess not, that would infer that NBC has some kind of a plan.

Joan Rivers helmed a talk show on Fox in 1986; it started out well, but after a few months sunk like a big rock. Cancellation in the following year.

Conan will have more time, but he needs to stop this ratings trend.

If they assumed (or if they were told by Leno) that Leno would retire in five years, then that makes sense. But if they pushed Leno to retire – they must have assumed that Conan would do even BETTER than Leno in that time slot.

In that case, and in any case, really, NBC has to be disappointed in Conan’s performance.

Now during the time people weren’t watching in huge numbers, Leno retooled The Tonight Show, he increased the comedy and really raised the game in the monologues. Then there was the OJ trial. I think Jay had the best comedy bits at the time with The Dancing Itos and his monologue.

Once Hugh Grant came along the show had improved but the Hugh Grant coup got people watching to see the show had improved.

That interview got people watching The Tonight Show but the quality of the show kept them there. Now we have Conan, where this version of his show isn’t really clicking with the audience. I’m not sure how he can change it though because he’s been doing this format for years.

I also think his monologues need to be sharper. Leno had the best monologues in late night and his delivery of the jokes was spot on. I think that’s because Jay has a stand up comedian’s timing.

My last comment is that I thing Conan Is excellent with his interviewing skills. Keep up the good work.

Leno is around so that NBC can still keep their “old people” demographic. They knew that Conan probably wouldn’t appeal to them very much so they kept Leno on board to keep some of them from completely going over to Letterman.

I give it five years. Letterman will more than likely be close to retiring, if not already retired, Conan will have a great stake in the Late Night audience, and once Letterman leaves he’ll probably get an even greater audience.

People who watch Leno at 10-11 can go to bed after the nightly news. Why in the world would they stay up and watch Conan.

Since the change other than the first week I rarely watch Conan and rarely watch Leno due to the time slot but have watched Letterman more as he is more appealing to me than Conan but he is no Leno.

So for me all the switch did was cause me to watch less late night TV in total.

Leno was stuck for 3 years doing a show that didn’t work. Finally, after he dumped his domineering manager/producer Helen Kushnick, he changed the show completely. He got a new band leader, he had more taped bits, and most important, he moved to a new studio with a cozier, comedy-club like set. The ratings began climbing up, and it culminated with the Hugh Grant moment.

Letterman has seen a similar steady climb before his recent scandal, and Conan will have to make changes to his show to see a similar climb.

The decision to give Conan the Tonight Show chair was not just a random attempt to get ahead of the game. Bottom line is, young people far prefer Conan to Dave. Conan is still just beginning his introduction to many viewers in the prime TV season, but more importantly, every single year the lion’s share of late night TV viewers aging out of the 18-49 demo will be Dave’s, and the majority aging in will belong to Conan.

Then again, being fed up with Conan at 11:30 is making some people (like me) rediscover Dave. So maybe it is a lot like Hugh Grant, even if not exactly.

I watch Dave now instead of Conan, but to be honest, neither show really thrills me.

Jon, plese let me know how the apple sauce tastes tonight at your REST HOME DINNER.

Imagine that TVBTN was around during Leno’s “Hugh Grant” (1995) moment, and I’d written “Letterman’s Late Show Ratings Lead Is Gone, Can He Get it Back?”

Would that have been absurd? Because afterwards Leno passed Letterman and Letterman was then behind for the next 14 years.

Of course only time will tell if this is a long term shift, but it’s happened before, how can imagining it could happen again absurd?

The Tonight Show lost its lead pretty quickly when Leno took over, but after a couple years he was number one again and then became dominant.

Conan’s only had the show for a few months, so just stay the late night course for now I say.

Had I claimed “Conan’s A Goner!”, that could be argued as being premature

*Where he will be cared for by all the interns he had sex with over the years.

If you remember, Jay constantly made jokes at the time about how weird it was he was planning his retirement for so long in the future. Well, those 5 years went pretty quick, and Jay decided he had a lot more fuel in his tank.

So, no, they did not force Jay, but they certainly twisted his arm. And now, ironically, we can see the “smooth transition” NBC ended up with.