Advertising Age seemed a little late with this year's estimated 30 second spot costs, and reports that Sunday Night Football was still the most expensive primetime real estate in the fall (est $339, 700 per 30 seconds spot) were reported over a month ago.
Now there are estimates on the rest, but be warned. It seems these estimates were largely gathered from the upfronts (and other sources) and they don't appear to have been adjusted based on early results. They have Two and a Half Men making more than The Big Bang Theory (even though TBBT has outperformed it in terms of adults 18-49 ratings) and my guess is they have not adjusted for the beast that is NCIS.
Ad Age calculated ad prices for each show by using the upfront prices agreed to by as many as seven different media-buying agencies and other sources. According to our survey, TV prices seem to be on the decline. In the 2008-2009 season, NBC's "Sunday Night Football" commanded an average of $434,792 for a 30-second commercial, compared with this season's average of $339,700. ABC's "Grey's" brought in an average of $326,685, compared with this season's $240,462.
As you can see, from the above a lot of shows took hits this year versus last. Check out Advertising Age's grid for all shows (including different rates for different nights of Leno that range from $49,000 to $66,000).
Does The Forgotten really make a third more than Leno, even with sometimes lower ratings just because it is scripted? Count on that answer being no and that just being a result of pre-season estimates that haven't been adjusted.
At least going into the season, Flashforward was the most expensive new series with estimates of more than $175,000. That's much higher than NCIS: Los Angeles which has the better ratings of the two lately.
Anyone who got House at that price is getting a steal.
yeah, and you know there’s no way that House is only making $8,000 more a spot than FlashForward.
I just can’t believe that The Simpsons and Family Guy are priced higher than House. I know they are just estimates, but how did that happen even in an estimate?
are these accurate? Looking at the ratings so far this season several shows are overpriced, namely Desperate Housewives. Family Guy probably has sponsors beating down the door.
Sunday: CBS only Amazing gets 6 digits. 200k Desperate/Simpsons/Guy. I wonder why Simpsons is so high relative to Guy/Cleveland given ratings; maybe because of reputation of shows.
Monday: Castle 5 digits; neither ABC reality show gets 200k. Heroes still 6 digits. House somehow doesn’t have 200k; huh. Lie to Me has closer to 50% of its ratings than 70%.
Tuesday: Wow, Good Wife more expensive than NCIS2? Both NCIS’s in the low 100’s. So You Think>100k probably thanks to desire for youth. V in 6 digits.
Wednesdays: NBC only SVU gets (barely) 100k. Modern/Cougar has met expectations high enough to net 100k; Eastwick’s investments much less sound. Interesting to see 127k for Glee & 146k Human Target; of course one will have Idol as lead-in…though why is Tuesday’s Past Life at 84k then? Parenthood almost 6 digits…of course so is Mercy, & The Forgotten.
Thursdays: Flash Forward>Private Practice? Well, FF is one of their shows that has a better chance at skewing towards more males, I suppose. CSI just short of 200k…overpriced? Office a bit short of 200k. Fringe>Bones? Fail.
Fridays: Why is Numbers on top?
If advertisers would’ve done it right, winners would be: Football/NBC; split between 8 FoxHouse & 9 CBS comedies; So You Think/Fox (Weird.); GleeDance/Fox; GreyPrivateFlash/ABC; ghosts/CBS
CW: ANTM 93, GG 59, OTH 57, 90210 54, Melrose 49, Vampire 39 (WTF?), Supernatural/Smallville 33
Wow Heroes estimate is pretty good, considering it against other shows, say Cougar Town (which gets better numbers) so I’m happy
Fin, these are estimates, and likely not the real price, especially now since the season began and the advertisers have seen the results.
I am generally skeptical of those numbers each year, yet seeing them is better than not seeing them.
Top nonscripted: Football, Dancing with Stars, Survivor, Bachelor, Makeover [3 ABC, 1 NBC, 1 CBS]
Top dramas: Grey’s, CSI, House, Flash (No.), Private, Human Target, Mentalist, CSI2, Bros, NCIS [4 ABC, 4 CBS, 2 Fox]
Top comedies: Desperate, 2.5, Guy, Simpsons, Bang, Office, Rock, Cleveland, How I Met, American Dad [4 Fox, 3 CBS, 2 NBC, 1 ABC]
Top new shows: Flash, Cleveland, Human Target, Modern Family, Glee/Good Wife [3
Fox, 2 ABC, 1 CBS]
Midseason hopefuls: NBC: Parenthood & Apprentice. ABC: Bachelor & V. Fox: Human Target.
ABC seems generally overpriced. ($91,000 for a spot on Hank, $110,000 for a spot on Eastwick, really?)
ABC seems to be way overpriced!!
So, what exactly do these numbers even mean. If it’s a high amount for a spot, is that good for the show or not? What about a low amount?
Even if the numbers aren’t quite accurate, it’s good to see kind of a ballpark figure. On my own, I wouldn’t have had a decent guess about those figures.
What a deal with NCIS 2.0
CW’s lost the f**king plot if SV only asks for $33,000 per ad slot on Smallville. What are they smoking? It was $48,000 last season.
They’re only making $150,000 profit per episode (given they only pay $1M per ep), so no wonder they can’t be arsed to promote it.
They make more money from the DVD and international sales of each season, than they do from the broadcast.
Smallville is basically cancel-proof.
Dillan, it is complete folly to use these estimated numbers along with whatever you *imagine* it costs to produce an episode of a show to get some sort of individual episode profit/loss number.
Is there any chance we’d see the ad rates for the cable TV networks?
Scott Jensen, ask Ad Age!
I used to have a rule of thumb that for every 1.0 in adults 18-49, a 1 hour show would make 2 million, and for a half hour show, it would make 1 million. Is that too far off? Also, why the discrepancies in the revenue when some shows have higher demo ratings?
Ben, I think it’s reasonable to guess that a broadcast primetime show with a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating makes half as much from advertising revenue than a show with a 4.0 rating, but assigning absolute dollar amounts to the individual shows is very tricky unless you’re an accountant for one of the networks.
Ben,
I suspect it also has to do with their estimation of what type of audience watches a given show and the buying power such audience is thought to have.