…however, just because there’s more households watching television at 9 than at 8, does not mean that more of them are watching the broadcast nets then – cable has a huge bite, as you know.

Also, just because the 18-49 demo is the main predictive factor for a show being created (in this case, a predictive demo of course, likely based on chicken bones, focus groups, who has slept with whom lately, blackmail materials in sealed manila envelopes (think Dynasty!), and/or a quick game of Deal or No Deal in the Phillipines (duck embryos for the losers!)), cancelled or renewed, does not mean that the advertisers don’t pay for anything other than 18-49 demos.

18-34 demos are popular with CW, and some FOX programs heavily target the 18-34 demo (Glee immediately comes to mind). These shows do get a premium from some advertisers, as long as they deliver the ratings that they want.

Total audience, whilst not counting for much in renew or cancel decisions, does play some part in ad spot rates, particularly if certain advertisers have a good relationship with a network (think Procter and Gamble with CBS) – which is why CSI gets a larger ad rate than you would expect, when considering only its demo rating.

Although the higher rated 18-49 demo show will get a higher price per thousand viewers overall, due to the higher price for demo viewers, they probably won’t get more money than a CSI unless their demos are either almost as large, or larger, than CSI’s – and their total audience is not too far behind CSI’s.

(There’s an idea for a graphic, Bill, Robert – “Cancel or No Cancel” in the “Deal or No Deal” style – at least for your own desktops (although, if Endemol got a link to the US site from TVBTN, they might let you use that for free ))

As Robert noted, those estimates are no doubt very stale – good enough to discuss, not good enough to bet your house on

I’m really new at this, but is the 9′oclock time slot way more expensive than the 8′oclock one?

Okay, I will – just for you…

Three Rivers – time of death – hopefully today…
Cold Case – football overrun did not help, and they probably have a movie theater ticket dispenser for their make-goods – but with the football overrun profits, CBS won’t complain too much. Won’t save them, though, from cancellation.

Sunday:
Sunday Night Football
All of FOX’s “Animation Domination” except for The Cleveland Show (and there’s a chance it’s okay in this metric)
60 Minutes, The Amazing Race
America’s Funniest Home Videos

Notes:
Extreme Makeover, Desperate Housewives, Brothers and Sisters – I think they won’t have to, but I am not sure.
Notice the Advertising Age chart didn’t list FOX from 7-8? I wonder why

Monday:
House, Lie To Me (House is likely the best ratings to dollar bargain, if that price is anywhere near correct!)
Everything on CBS (thank you, Chuck Lorre!)

Notes:
Dancing – oy, gevalt! Overpriced!
Heroes – They are likely okay, but I am not certain of this.
Trauma – bleeding make-goods, and burnt to a crisp as well…
Castle – Probably okay, but they may have a few make-goods to hand out…
CW – My guess is that their specific 18-34 ratings will tell their story, not the 18-49′s – but certainly not guaranteed free of make-goods tonight.

Tuesday:
NCIS, NCIS: LA
The Biggest Loser
So You Think You Can Dance

Notes:
Good Wife – given their ratings slide, they have probably handed out a few make-goods already…
ABC – All their shows so far have likely handed out make-goods – especially Dancing! results (owww!)
CW – Worse than Dancing! results, methinks…

Wednesday:
Modern Family, Cougar Town
Criminal Minds, CSI: NY
So You Think You Can Dance
America’s Next Top Model (as usual for CW, they sell for 18-34, and that’s okay)

Notes:
Hank, Eastwick, Mercy, Melrose repeats, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried – they probably have handed out make-goods already, and will issue more…
Glee – their index makes me wonder if they have made their targets, not certain…
SVU – a few likely handed out early, but improved enough now so they’re probably not handing out any more.

Thursday – the trickiest night to predict, given that many of the top programs are here – so my guesses are more likely to be wrong here…

…but then again, I’m not being paid for this, unlike your local weatherman, so bear with me, please :

The Mentalist, CSI
Greys Anatomy, Private Practice
The Office
Bones
Vampire Diaries

Notes: Flash Forward, Survivor, Supernatural – all probably not handing out make-goods yet, but I am definitely not certain…

Community, Parks & Rec, 30 Rock, Fringe – they’ve probably handed out a few make-goods by now, and will probably hand out a few more by end of sweeps – still making money, though…

Friday:
Ghost Whisperer, Medium
20/20
Dateline
Smallville

Notes:
Supernanny – one showing – can’t tell yet…
Ugly Betty – I might love the smell of napalm in the morning, but ABC doesn’t
Numb3rs, Law and Order – Definitely have handed out a few make-goods by now, if those prices are correct…
FOX – see Ugly Betty, above – I can’t see FOX guaranteeing at a 0.8 demo, even for this load of rubbish…
ANTM repeat – repeats are definitely not stable enough to put into the “no make-goods” list…

Saturday:
ABC College Football
SVU repeats
Dateline (when they run it)
Cops, America’s Most Wanted
48 Hours Mystery

Notes:
CBS repeats – depends on what they’re repeating, as the Ad Age chart does not identify what they’re running – but they probably aren’t handing out many make-goods at those prices.
Trauma – they may do okay for that price – but it won’t prevent their cancellation.

Jay Leno: Presuming that make-goods for Leno are handled within the Leno-plex, and not outside of it, overall, they won’t have to issue any make-goods. They may, depending on the night, have to issue a few for other nights of Leno.

If NBC was smart, and they had regular, five night per week, advertisers for Leno, they would have calculated make-goods by a weekly average, thus simplifying the make-good calculations.

Since it’s been very notable, and relatively rare, when they’ve gone below 1.5 demo, they should be fine – not CBS Mondays fine, but fine enough…and the advertisers should be happy enough

1) Shows just how important and why so many good shows are on Thursday night – as it is the most important and expensive night to advertise.

2) many question if the 18-49 demo really is important – these ad rates prove it, how else tdo you explain NCIS getting 133 and the Office getting 191

Upfront commitments aren’t quite set in stone either as the advertisers who make upfront commitments have quarterly options where they can cancel up to 25% of their commitments.

If you buy ad time before the season starts, you’re locked in at the prices the networks offer. I think this is what those “upfront presentations” are for.

And there’s also spots that advertisers buy throughout the season, and the prices for these change depending on (among other things) how the show has been doing in the ratings so far that season.

If, hypothetically, a show did exactly what was expected of it, people who buy a bunch of spots before the season begins would get a better deal than those that buy after the season starts because the greater uncertainty of the show’s performance would factor into the price.

Nice to see these ad prices even if there are just estimates at least we now an idea how much a show can earn.

So one way to see which shows are beating pre-season expectations is to identify those whose upfront figures were lower than their current ratings would lead us to predict. For example, it looks like Medium, the top-rated show on Fridays, is currently beating pre-season expectations (since it commanded the lowest upfront rate of the three CBS Friday shows). By contrast, the fact that Three Rivers commanded a higher upfront rate than 60 Minutes indicates that both CBS and the advertisers were overly optimistic about its viewership.

Robert, Bill, tell me if I’m barking up the wrong tree here.

I suspect it also has to do with their estimation of what type of audience watches a given show and the buying power such audience is thought to have.

They’re only making $150,000 profit per episode (given they only pay $1M per ep), so no wonder they can’t be arsed to promote it.

They make more money from the DVD and international sales of each season, than they do from the broadcast.

Smallville is basically cancel-proof.

Midseason hopefuls: NBC: Parenthood & Apprentice. ABC: Bachelor & V. Fox: Human Target.

Monday: Castle 5 digits; neither ABC reality show gets 200k. Heroes still 6 digits. House somehow doesn’t have 200k; huh. Lie to Me has closer to 50% of its ratings than 70%.

Tuesday: Wow, Good Wife more expensive than NCIS2? Both NCIS’s in the low 100’s. So You Think>100k probably thanks to desire for youth. V in 6 digits.

Wednesdays: NBC only SVU gets (barely) 100k. Modern/Cougar has met expectations high enough to net 100k; Eastwick’s investments much less sound. Interesting to see 127k for Glee & 146k Human Target; of course one will have Idol as lead-in…though why is Tuesday’s Past Life at 84k then? Parenthood almost 6 digits…of course so is Mercy, & The Forgotten.

Thursdays: Flash Forward>Private Practice? Well, FF is one of their shows that has a better chance at skewing towards more males, I suppose. CSI just short of 200k…overpriced? Office a bit short of 200k. Fringe>Bones? Fail.

Fridays: Why is Numbers on top?

If advertisers would’ve done it right, winners would be: Football/NBC; split between 8 FoxHouse & 9 CBS comedies; So You Think/Fox (Weird.); GleeDance/Fox; GreyPrivateFlash/ABC; ghosts/CBS

CW: ANTM 93, GG 59, OTH 57, 90210 54, Melrose 49, Vampire 39 (WTF?), Supernatural/Smallville 33