Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.43 |
| Hank | 0.57 |
| Eastwick | 0.69 |
| the forgotten | 0.70 |
| The Middle | 0.73 |
| Castle (P) | 0.76 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.05 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.13 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.19 |
| Modern Family | 1.23 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.31 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.57 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.90 |
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Castle's received a back 9 order to complete the 2009-2010 season. That was never really in doubt for me, the ratings weren't terrible and the Index predicts what will happen by the end of the season. However, Castle fans prone to fingernail biting might want to invest in sturdy gloves now. I can pretty much guarantee that the future of the show will not be known until the very last minute in May. It will likely attract the most frenzy of the ABC bubble shows because of a combination of its ratings and its fans.
ABC says Eastwick is a quiet success. I guess they'll be quiet when they cancel the show, because it has zero chance of getting another season. But it does have a crazy fan "Save our Show" campaign!
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It's not 100% out of the question, but it's a real longshot.
While the forgotten's ratings have stabilized, they've stabilized in the "cancel me" zone and Hank is certain to be canceled as well.
The Middle has received an order for a full season from ABC, but I wouldn't make plans to watch it next season. Its Index will continue to fall even if its ratings stabilize where they are now. The only reason it's not red now is that I've learned to give half hour comedies a bit more slack until later in the season.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I knew Castle would get the orange this week since it was renewed for the full season. If Castles ratings maintain 2.5 or more, it could easily get renewed next year. Still hoping Eastwick goes up. Saw a great promo for tomorrows episode so I hope it goes up!
Ugly Betty will definitely be gone after this season. Moving to Fridays seriously killed the show!
If The Middle gets a boost from the Charlie Brown special, its chances for renewal next year should go up but ABC is showing the Charlie Brown special tonight and tomorrow night. Will some people actually watch it twice?
rob, ABC figured more people would watch a Charlie Brown repeat than would watch a new Hank.
The fact that Eastwick gets an SOS campaign proves once and for all that ANY show has crazy fans who love it–and that’s no argument for keeping it around. In fact, it’s an argument to get rid of it.
Castle will be moving up that list again once it loses DWTS as a lead-in.
@ Bill
Lol, and I am one of them Bill! I know I can get a laugh out of Charlie Brown; it’s always hit or miss with Hank…mostyl miss!
No nail biting yet. I think most Castle fans got what they wanted and that was a full season this year.
Obviously, we hope the numbers go up enough that ABC orders another season but that decision is months away so no sense in worrying over it yet.
Just because there’s no sense in worrying over it doesn’t mean fans won’t worry.
sei un portasfiga assurdo
@ the pish: Castle will surely drop if it loses DWTS, yes. I don’t think ANYONE has ever questioned that. Any show would.
But even IF it does, it will be only temporary, and then it will pick it back up in the spring, yes? So any drop would also be temporary, and then likely bounce back up. And keep in mind that Castle continues to creep upwards each week, so if THAT trend continues, the drop at that point might STILL keep it out of the danger zone.
A pessimistic vs. optimistic viewpoint, I suppose. But I remain hopeful, and right now, I think the data leans more towards the optimist view than the other.
Holly, I talk a good game but I’m going to be worrying every week. lol.
* “But even IF it does” lose DWTS for a while, I meant.
Before it aired, I never actually thought that a cop and a writer would make a good team.
I WAS WRONG!
loved the Halloween episode if only to the fact they were making references to Firefly and Buffy , that I noticed. I think some other shaws were mentioned too.
Castle dressed up as Captain Mal for Halloween.
Middle & Castle will all depend on spring scheduling. If Middle gets put after Dancing, it will rise; if Castle gets yanked to another night, it will decline. At this point, I think the midseasons do poorly enough that Castle gets a renewal.
Flashforward and Cougar Town (to me) aren’t locks either at this point, although both have factors in their favor (Heir to Lost and Bill Lawrence, respectively) in addition to ratings.
With ever decreasing thresholds, ABC may decide to keep Castle. It is an ABC Studios production (more than just ad revenues). Solid, positive fan support and it’s not serialized. Therefore, there is strong possibility of adding new viewers.
Does ABC have anything in the wings that is guaranteed to do better? A bird in the hand…
Oh come on, Bill!
Castle just got picked up for a full season last week. Can’t there be some sort of grace period before you use it as renew/cancel headline fodder again!?
Would it have killed you to go with The Middle this week instead?
That’s cold man.
“Castle” has always been the bird in the hand. And it does keep growing this season, ever so slightly, but steadily. Plus – the stars are not huge names (outside the internet) so I doubt they cost a lot, the book is OUT OF STOCK everywhere, and still in the top 15 or 20 best-sellers (I’m guessing they didn’t really anticipate the demand) etc.
I don’t know what they have in store and if it’s any good, but I can’t imagine anyone replacing it without some maaajor drop in ratings, which hasn’t happened so far.
Maybe a new version of The Odd Couple with Budo/Tony/Dan/Gerry/someone and pisher. THAT would be fine entertainment!
It was a happy alignment of the episode stars that a very good, funny episode was on last night when there were repeats on CBS. It drew more eyes to the show and it may bring in new viewers. It has in my mind some positives going for it that may sway a renewal.
Produced in-house
ABC wants a procedural and this has been the only one to do marginally well
Has some buzz going for it – not like Eli Stone but better than The Unusuals or the Forgotten. Plus it has Nathan Fillion who brings goodwill.
Has a book tie-in which could have new novels and bring additional revenues. And it can’t be that expensive to shoot.
Did I mention Nathan Fillion
Oh, you’re just baiting us with that title.
I adored the latest episode and hope no one watched football in Philly or DC last night (yeah, right). It’s a fun little show and a procedural that’s perfect for the network…which I never thought I’d say. I think it’d do better at 9pm (and with some advertising), but that’s academic, sadly.
I live in the DC area and Castle was on ABC last night, NOT football. So, we do not have to take dc numbers out of that