Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.22 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.26 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.27 |
| Fringe | 0.65 |
| Bones (P) | 0.82 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.86 |
| Glee (P) | 0.96 |
| American Dad (P) | 1.01 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.21 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.25 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.40 |
| House | 1.62 |
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Dollhouse, 'Til Death and Brothers have been pulled from the Fox schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will return with double episodes on Friday's in December. Brothers will move to Sundays to finish its run. 'Til Death returns in a four episode Christmas Eve mini-marathon. Fox stole my idea! (ok, mine was for Independence Day). They are all out of the way for other shows that presumably can attract more viewers, and they are all certain to be canceled.
While I think the prospects are still positive for Fringe there is at least some question about its future, so I will keep it in orange.
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will be depressed for next few weeks because the World Series ratings will unusually boost Fox's overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox's average evens out post-baseball. Edit: Fox's average is *already* boosted because of the ALCS games, which is already driving down the Indexes of Fox's other shows.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
You don’t consider Lie to Me even slightly Orangish?
Why does FOX want to ruin Xmas?
I’ve been a bit out of touch, so maybe this is a dumb question, but is Glee really below average in the demo for Fox? I thought it is making hay on being such a good demo show.
I think Dollhouse is really good; I don’t understand why it isn’t doing better. There really are a lot of junky shows out there across all the networks (and even in HBO and ShowTime etc.) and good shows keep getting canceled year after year. Fox is annoying especially in that regard.
Somebody at FOX must really love “Brothers” because they will air on Sundays, even though their Sunday lineup is killer.
Schmoker, Fox got a big demo boost this past week with its Sunday of football/baseball and the other ALCS games. Their 18-49 average is now a 3.4.
Glee’s is a 3.3.
“Til Death?” Certain to be cancelled? Poppycock! That show is like that hockey mask-wearing thing from the “Friday the 13th” movies. Everybody has tried to kill it, but no matter what you do, no matter what weapon you use, no matter how fatally you wound it, it will just rise from the dead and wreak havoc upon the population all over again. It will never die! It can’t die! “Til Death” is… the undead!
You’ve previously said that the cutoff for the index was 0.92, so could you explain why Lie To Me (and other shows on other indices) which haven’t already been renewed (like Bones) are in the green? Is it because it’s so early in the season, because the House juggernaut skews the numbers when considering the realistic potential of a replacement show, or is it something else entirely?
Scott R., beginning this week as I covered in the post, Fox’s overall average is being *substantially* boosted by baseball games, which drives down the Indexes of all their shows. That will be temporary (baseball is done in 2 weeks or so), by early 2010 that ratings bulge rabbit will have been digested into the pythonic averages and will be relatively meaningless.
I added an extra line to the post to perhaps clarify the situation.
House is still the highest-rated show on FOX. It’s NBCU’s only show that actually doing well compared to NBC’s lineup.
Bill, do you not think that Brothers has the slightest chance of renewal by returning solely on Sundays in that old King of the Hill slot that gets preempted all the time? I know the ratings obviously aren’t there to justify it, but I’m just wondering if Fox might be interested in keeping a show with a football-theme to it on right after NFL football.
And Fox has a strong relationship with Michael Strahan. Brothers could be used to help promote the NFL on Fox brand.
Riff Rafferty says: “no matter how fatally you wound it”
Nice.
Chief, I can’t see how there’s any hope for Brothers.
Upcoming headline: ‘Til Death: The Ghost of Christmas Past!
Why do you think that Fox originally put a show like Brothers on a Friday night? They surely weren’t expecting even decent numbers, were they? What kind of numbers would have been satisfying for them? Would even a 1.5 average have been satisfactory for them?
For the record, I have never seen more than five seconds of Brothers and have no vested interest in the show myself.
Fringe will be back. I am 100% sure. It will move to a different night though. FOX knows it can be a solid ratings gainer (solid, not great) on another night with a decent lead-in, but on Thursdays it stands no chance and Bones has a completely different fanbase. It was not horrible thinking to assume the duo might do well, but they were wrong and they’re not going to risk moving either show to a different night and messing up their schedule when the lineup is strong outside of 1/2 of Thursdays and Fridays. Just to give some people an idea of the competition it faces directly at 9 PM on Thursdays in November.
Entertainment: Grey’s Anatomy, The Office, 30 Rock, Vampire Diaries, CSI
Sports: NBA Basketball on TNT, College Football on ESPN, TNA Impact!, Thursday Night Football on NFL Network
Just look at that, there are numerous shows that attract every single demographic, that are definitely cutting into Fringer’s numbers.
Another issue that I think this site sometimes ignores is the surrounding hour shows (8-9, 10-11). Just because it doesn’t directly compete against something doesn’t mean people won’t not watch because they watch something before or after that show. Fringe is a very heavy show with intricate details and a lot to absorb and I have no doubt that Flash Forward at 8 is causing a lot of sci-fi fans to not tune in because those two shows back to back might be too much (the same reason Invasion failed after following Lost, and to a degree The Nine).
Lastly, one more big reason why the ratings are down is the current direction of the show. Outside of the opening scene, this season has consisted of Olivia talking about her mental state for almost 35 minutes an episode. This is not compelling television and people channel surfing will turn it off and some fans with a smaller attention span will definitely give up on the show.
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Sorry for writing a thesis here, but I think Fringe will be back next year on a new night with a revamped format.
Yes, I’m sure that 4-episode Christmas Eve Blackmail Burnoff Bonanza marathon will really put a dent in the 22* episodes that currently sit on the shelf. Maybe FOX will finally get around to airing the Christmas themed episode from last season? The one that 2 of my friends were extras in? Oh, sure, it’s only got a big B-plot featuring not-so-dearly-departed actor J.B. Smoove working as a mall Santa, but FOX never gave a toss about the continuity of “Til Death” before, so why start now?
*28 by December 24. And counting. But who’s counting?
When have they not cared about continuity Rick? Yes, last year when Do Not Disturb was canned and they aired Til Death in one hour blocks they alternated between an episode with the Woodcocks and one without, but they didn’t say why they were gone, or if they were gone until episode 402 when the new principal was revealed.
Rick? Rick Roll’d? And so what you’re saying is, by just skipping over, you know, 2 dozen episodes, they’ve maintained the continuity? Point taken.
In fact, I think that’s such a good point, I propose that FOX skip over the next 8 episodes of “Dollhouse” and just air the series finale. If anything happens in those 8 episodes that is mentioned in the series finale, well, who cares? It’s not like anybody will know what they’ve missed.