Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.22|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.27|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.86|
|American Dad (P)||1.01|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.21|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||1.25|
|Family Guy (P)||1.40|
Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers have been pulled from the Fox schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will return with double episodes on Friday’s in December. Brothers will move to Sundays to finish its run. ‘Til Death returns in a four episode Christmas Eve mini-marathon. Fox stole my idea! (ok, mine was for Independence Day). They are all out of the way for other shows that presumably can attract more viewers, and they are all certain to be canceled.
While I think the prospects are still positive for Fringe there is at least some question about its future, so I will keep it in orange.
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will be depressed for next few weeks because the World Series ratings will unusually boost Fox’s overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. Edit: Fox’s average is *already* boosted because of the ALCS games, which is already driving down the Indexes of Fox’s other shows.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think it’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.