Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.52 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.74 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.74 |
| Community | 0.84 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.96 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.17 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
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The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.
Trauma didn't receive an order for its "back 9" episodes, so it'll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
if mercy holds i can actually see it sticking around next season
Not if the new regime has any hope of saving a sinking ship, Jimmy.
All I can say is …..CHUCK ME!!!!!
go away parks and mercy!!
Community is a terrible show. In fairness tho I only watched the pilot ep and never gave it a second chance. P&R has its moments. Should have kept My Name is Earl and keep allowing P&R to grow. I haven’t watched either Mercy or Trauma so no big deal there.
The Office was pretty lame in the ratings when it debuted, but NBC had faith and it has prospered. Hopefully they will have the same faith in Community and Parks/Recreation. They are both great shows. But they need time to establish themselves. Not everything is a Lost or Mentalist in its first season. Cheers and Seinfeld are good models because they took quite a few years to find their audience. Parks/Recreation is especially worth saving. And if Community is cancelled, Joel McHale deserves another vehicle.
Jay..the Community pilot was lame. But it has gotena lot better. Check it out again!
jay, the majority like community over parks so if they ever brought back earl they would cancel parks which is a good thing
Parks and Community will most likely survive. So far, Parks has shown growth, and Community has not been in a ratings freefall in a difficult timeslot.
Hard to see Mercy staying around except due to actual mercy. But to avoid more trauma, NBC just may keep Mercy. Trauma will not have mercy.
the only reason community’s numbers have been falling is because NBC switched the the times with parks which was a dumb decision
My advice to NBC is to air one episode each of “Community” and “Parks and Wreck” at 9:30 after “The Office” later in the season. If neither show can hold the same percentage of the lead-in that “30 Rock” can, then kick ‘em both out the door and try again. Me? I won’t be trying again with either “Community” and “Parks.” But I do thank NBC for keeping them on, because it makes it so much easier for me to get caught up with “Survivor” and “Flash Forward.”
Just curious, why does a 0.52 for L&O make it likely to be canceled while a 0.52 for Numb3rs make it likely for renewal? They’re both owned by their respective networks. They’re both on Fridays. They’ve both got lucrative TNT syndication deals. What’s the variable that separates them, production cost?
It’s too bad Parks & Rec had such a terrible first season, because this year it’s actually really good. People just aren’t checking it out because they gave up on it already. But it did get way better, just like The Office back in its first couple years.
Andrew, damn good question! It’s more a guess that CBS would keep Numb3rs as long as it stays as close to Ghost Whisperer as it did last season. I think I am more likely to be wrong about that (and Numb3rs would get canceled) than I am to be wrong about L&O.
I think L&O should be orange/yellow. Yes, it was renewed more for the sake of the record number of seasons than anything else, but I don’t think it is guaranteed to be canceled. It had a slow start, but has gotten at least a 1.5 for three weeks in a row now, which is pretty good for a Friday. It’s not going to beat GW, but it’s doing respectably and NBC has much bigger problems to worry about.
Love Community and Law and Order.
I think if nothing else, NBC might up their episode order of L&O from 16 to a full 22, but cancellation still seems pretty likely. Dick Wolf would then try, and probably succeed, to finagle some sort of cable rescue in order to break the Gunsmoke record outright. I mean if he was able to squeeze three extra seasons out of Criminal Intent, surely he’d be able to do something similar for The Mothership.
Once Trauma gets axed, I hope Aimee Garcia gets onto another series very quickly. I love her.
I’m actually thankful that so many of these new (NBC) shows are not very good. It’s helping me with my goal of watching LESS T.V.!
Holly, I totally agree. L&O has a decent shot at a 21st season holding down Fridays.
And as for Community/Parks, if they can hover around a 2.0 average they probably have a shot at returning next year. If they can grow this season to a 2.2-2.5 (not out of the question with some decent advertising/promotion… and I mean quality, not quantity), their renewal would be a near lock.
Brendan: They never switched Community and Parks. Community got a 3 week spot at 9:30 after the Office just until 30 Rock came back.
I see these kind of comments all the time “Parks and Rec had it’s chance after the Office and blew it.” Parks and Rec only aired after the Office once, and it was an 8:00 special episode of the Office. Parks never got a chance to air after the Office in its regular 9:00 spot (like Community did 3 times), which as time goes by, looks like an ever poorer decision by NBC all the time.
However, looking at the context of the situation, I understand that NBC probably thought Parks would be a little more of a self-starter than what it ended up being. I guess due to the fact that it a) was from the creators of the Office, b)had the style of the Office, c)was on directly prior to the Office, c) had Poehler and a lot of “buzz”.
They also needed something to immediately replace the loser Kath & Kim. With 20/20 hindsight it probably would have worked out better pre-empting 30 Rock for a few weeks and running Parks after The Office at 9:30.
If Parks had truely gotten the Community treatment, perhaps it would have caught on more. Then again, maybe not.