Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.52 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.61 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.62 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.90 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.94 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.99 |
| The Mentalist | 1.03 |
| CSI (P) | 1.06 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.07 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.18 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.18 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.22 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.40 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.41 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.52 |
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The deathwatch for Three Rivers continues. Many predicted CBS would take if off the air before the November sweeps period (which begins on October 29), but it's still scheduled to air on at least the next two Sundays (of course, that can change in an instant). Predicting the date it gets removed from the schedule is the only parlor game left for us, hoping for more than 13 episodes is folly.
Cold Case wasn't pre-empted or bumped late by football this season, but against the Yankees ALCS clinching game fell to its lowest rating of the season. Of course for its excuse generating fans, if it's not one thing, it's another! It can't just be that not many people want to watch the show. That's way too simple a reason.
The Good Wife ratings have stabilized and it's average is tracking right on the edge between certain renewal and some danger of being canceled. Right now, it's looking good.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
Numb3rs ratings are again close enough to those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to put its future in less doubt. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there's a risk it gets canceled.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
rivers lower than cold case i dont think so and i hope not…
The Good Wife is back in green yay
I’m still 50/50 on Numb3rs. I think it’s fate rests heavily on how many open spots CBS has in May. If Cold Case and 3 Rivers are the only obvious cancelations, at least one OK-rated show will be canceled. Right now, I’d say that Numb3rs and The Good Wife would be on the line (and possibly the Wednesday comedy block, but CBS seems abnormally committed to that…)
Big Bang Theory is the highest-rated show.
Congrads!
I don’t want to go on the cart!
Three Rivers is the lowest rated of the Sunday lineup, unless they want a dead weight that is hurting the rest of the lineup then I think CBS will pull it sooner than later. Isn’t it bad when your 9pm show is being beaten by the two earlier timeslots plus the later slot?
Numb3rs I’m unsure because it has reached the milestone for syndication but would replacing it really be worth it unless they find a show which is compatible enough with Ghost Whisperer and Medium?
“Many predicted CBS would take if off the air before the November sweeps period ”
Come on, admit it, you think NBC is keeping Trauma, and CBS is keeping Three Rivers, just to ruin our track records.
Or they’re playing PR chicken (“After Southland, I’m not canceling Trauma until someone else cancels something, dammit!”).
See, we can come up with new parlor games!
This list is the sign of a network that is doing extremely well. Very impressive for CBS. I’m sure NBC is envious.
Mike G., NBC is envious of a lot of networks
Bill and Tom, it’s only Tuesday, Three Rivers still has a chance of being pulled between now and Friday.
If CBS plans to pull Three Rivers for sweeps, whatever show replaces it (e.g. Flashpoint) won’t get the benefit of much advertising.
Maybe they can just stick in an NCIS repeat since that seems to do well wherever it is. But is substituting one show for another during sweeps “falsifying” results because advertising rates would be set based on a show that doesn’t usually air in that timeslot, and therefore be abnormally high?
@Shaz, Networks do that all the time, I remember ABC being particularly guilty of that a couple of years ago. They had a ridiculous number of specials preempting all their low-performing shows.
They might hold off on canceling TR until after episode 7 which is to air on November 22nd when Mandy Patinkin is to make is guest appearance.
Shaz, advertisers get the demographic group eyeballs they pay for. Sometimes when they originally contracted for them, sometimes in make goods later.
The promos back a month ago were laughable for this turd. How was this greenlit? The guy running throught the hospital with a Coleman cooler containing a heart has an interesting backstory…Oh yeah, and the NAPA Auto parts franchise has an interesting tale about taking parts to a local Ford dealership.
DUMBASSES!
ALL the networks did that during sweeps in the 90s, as I recall. I don’t know why, but there are fewer and fewer ridiculous and blatant sweeps pre-emptions these days. Are network schedulers catching on that shows build up more ratings momentum with fewer pre-emptions? Or are sweeps considered less important? Or is it due to the declining power of the affiliates (assuming they ARE less powerful)?
Mike G., NBC is envious of a lot of networks,
Maybe even CW, at least from a PR perspective. They have a break-out success with Vampire Dairies (puke) but NBC has bombed across the board with their fresh offerings. In great trouble indeed.
I’d say Good Wife will stay unless it drops.
Not expecting “Three Rivers” to be pulled from the schedule — at least if Miss Tassler has anything to say about it. Moved to Saturday to play out its order, maybe. But not pulled. This is CBS’s second-best unintentional comedy (after “CSI: Miami”). How can they pull it? And deprive us of all those laughs?
Besides, they already went ahead and aired a 4th ep. I’m sure Peter Ocko would have liked the same courtesy so his superior “3 lbs.” could have avoided all the “3 eps.” jokes, but alas, Mr. Ocko does not have the same bond with Tassler than Carol Barbee clearly does.
Three Rivers has improved from week to week. The main leads have settled into their roles very nicely and the fans of the show are clamoring for more. This last episode, “Code Green”, was the best one yet. CBS is promoting the next three episodes of Three Rivers (through the Mandy Patinkin episode which will air on November 15) so I remain cautiously optimistic that Three Rivers will continue to air.
NBC is envious of Adult Swim sometimes :p
As for Cold Case, they need a crossover with Two and a Half Men, badly…
…as for Three Rivers, not even Kent Tekulve, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, Sister Sledge, John Candelaria, the Blues Brothers, the Penguin, Cab Calloway, Mr. Belvedere, Bob Uecker, Vic Morrow from Combat, and Bert Blyleven could save it…play a dirge version of “We Are Family” now, and carve the headstone before the Thanksgiving turkey – er, the Lions game
Chuck Lorre has less money, now, than David Letterman – but that won’t last too long – in fact, I hear Julie Chen may divorce Leslie Moonves, and get an eight figure settlement, only if she marries Lorre – that’s probably the only way CBS can give Lorre his well deserved bonus
As for Christine and Gary – they are praying that David Spade gets what Maura Tierney got