Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 25, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.52|
|Three Rivers (P)||0.55|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.61|
|Cold Case (P)||0.61|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.61|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.62|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.90|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.94|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.07|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.18|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.18|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.22|
|Two And A Half Men||1.41|
|Big Bang Theory||1.52|
The deathwatch for Three Rivers continues. Many predicted CBS would take if off the air before the November sweeps period (which begins on October 29), but it's still scheduled to air on at least the next two Sundays (of course, that can change in an instant). Predicting the date it gets removed from the schedule is the only parlor game left for us, hoping for more than 13 episodes is folly.
Cold Case wasn't pre-empted or bumped late by football this season, but against the Yankees ALCS clinching game fell to its lowest rating of the season. Of course for its excuse generating fans, if it's not one thing, it's another! It can't just be that not many people want to watch the show. That's way too simple a reason.
The Good Wife ratings have stabilized and it's average is tracking right on the edge between certain renewal and some danger of being canceled. Right now, it's looking good.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
Numb3rs ratings are again close enough to those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to put its future in less doubt. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there's a risk it gets canceled.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.