The new ‘Jack’ is annoying and doesn’t make you empathize with him.

The new cop pairing (Anderson/Sisto) are fantastic IMO the best combo since Orbach/Bratt.

I don’t know if I want it to die or not…

Wile I prefer Jeremy Sisto, I don’t think either one is strong enough to carry the other. In other words I could put up with Sisto when he was with Jesse L. Martin, because Martin could carry him, but Sisto can’t carry Anderson, and Anderson can’t carry Sisto.

I’d rather it was two totally different guys, but if I had to choose I’d take Sisto.

The question is whether NBC will decide to end the series or take advantage of repurposing the series ala L&O:CI to either TNT or USA. Sending off first-run episodes to USA would keep revenue in-house, but since TNT already has the rights to the syndicated episodes, they would probably be a better fit. And as much as some people don’t care so much for Jeremy Sisto and Anthony Anderson, they would be much cheaper to keep around if L&O went first-run to cable.

Personally some of my favorite episodes are those that break from the half and half norm of L&O, and/or delve into the characters more, however the upside to not doing those types of things too often is that each episode can stand on its own, you don’t have to have seen the previous episode to be able to watch the current or next.

It might be a two hour episode at best, and maybe we’ll see McCoy lose an election or something like that, but at the end we’ll likely see the cameras pan out to a view of an office filled with lawyers, filling papers, phones ringing, elevators opening and closing, then maybe an aerial shot of New York city, with cop cars here and there, lights flashing, sirens blaring….

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Inside)

BTW Why does everyone think that L&O would go to USA if NBC passed as they don’t air reruns like CI and to me, TNT would be the more natural home for new episodes.

Second, if L&O averages between a 1.5-2.0 rating in its current timeslot, particularly when you consider that NBC’s overall 18-49 average will drop in the spring (post Football, and Olympic weeks factored out), I think it will get renewed too!

And while Robert and I do make the occasional wager with each other, which is probably a mistake for me given my previous record, I shy away from starting a general trend of wagering with commenters, or I might have to pick up a W-2 job before too long again.

(and for the record McCoy’s election storyline in S20 is almost identical to Schiff’s election storyline during the Bratt years)

Honestly, I really don’t care either way since I haven’t been watching this season. My main problem is that I don’t have any paticular attachment to either of the cops and I like the assisst. ADA (Connie not going to look up how to spell the character’s last name) more than I like ADA Cutter (who frankly comes across as a wannabe Jack McCoy with all the attitude and none of the intellectual heft)

@aaronhotchner – I love how you say “Conservative views are generally tinged with just a hint of insanity” and then go to criticize Conservatives for having an attitude of “be like me or don’t be at all”. Pot, this is Kettle, you’re black.

I will bet you that if L & O averages between a 1.5 and 2 in its present slot , it will be renewed for a 21st season.

If I lose, I will send you a $25 gift certificate to the lunch place of your choice.

If I win, you make a $25 donation to the Saban Free Clinic in L.A. — just post the thank you note from the clinic as proof.

Deal?

If so, I’ll shut up. (that alone maybe be worth $25 to you).

It used to be that a show had to either be over or have at least 5 years worth of episodes for syndication but these days it seems that some shows that are airing will go into syndication much earlier.

And my guess is that Ugly Betty despite its current poor ratings will do OK in syndication.

L&O was a top ten show, from @1997 to @2002. Four or five seasons. Then it was a top 20 show for a few seasons after that.

The other franchises you mention are also top ten shows and have been over the course of several seasons. That’s the key — “over the course of several seasons.”

A show needs 80 to 100 episodes to syndicate (so it can be stripped five days a week) and shown in several cycles a year. A show that’s a top ten hit for one or two seasons and then sinks probably won’t get that many episodes under its belt, or if it does, it won’t generate much interest (or high fees) in the syndication/cable aftermarket. Alias and Heroes are two such examples.

1 – I hate 18-49 demo being the idee fixee of advertisers, and would love to see all advertising agencies’ executives and their aides-de-camp fall from Washington’s nose, by having their hands stomped on by Martin Landau, while being machine-gunned by a dozen T-6100 Terminators from Binford. But it is what it is – and there’s no realistic way for us to change that – think “Zombieland” (notice the title on the commercial looks a bit like the Universal titles?) on rabbit reproductive steroids – that’s the scale of the challenge we have in order to defeat it.

2 – Other factors are discussed, caveated, and ran through a Bass-a-Matic 76 (Dan Aykroyd not included) here so fast, Bill and Robert need to buy a new one every six days, on average (summers, one a month – during Chuck or Dollhouse runs, possibly two a day!).

3 – Since #1 is what it is, it wouldn’t make sense, except for considering the mad, mad, mad, mad world inside Dawn Ostroff’s head, for Bill and Robert to make their main hypothesis anything else but 18-49 demos as a proxy for renewal decisions makes no sense…

4 – …if they really wanted to make no sense, they would have stayed at their old jobs, where they would have continued to be miserable.

5 – The only way to get all the information you think Bill and Robert should get before the relevant decisions are made is to own 20 percent of each of the networks, and have very senior executive positions at all of them.

6 – If you still think they need to consider anything else save the 18-49 demos, for your convenience, please send your $8 billion certified check to:

TV By The Numbers
714 Webb Way
Los Angeles CA 90028-2288

They also will take transfers of over $1 billion using Diners’ Club and AMEX

The fact you would even suggest that repurposing fees could even come close to making up for the loss of an exclusive cable deal indicates you don’t have the foggiest notion of the economics of this business. It wouldn’t make up half, not even a third, not even a quarter of the loss.

As for your last comment about the sale being so close to being finalized that the number of episodes wouldn’t matter again speaks to your ignorance of the corporate culture that predominates here. GE/NBC is a company that counts paperclips. If they can push off the expense of a $3-4 million episode into the next quarter and keep it off this quarter’s books, they will. They will do anything to make the current quarter’s bottom line look good. That’s their horizon — the current quarter. Tomorrow doesn’t exist at GE-NBC.

“After Benjamin Bratt left he said he felt it was a mistake to focus on the characters outside of the individual cases yet the last season was all about the McCoy’s election and the crooked Mayor.”

Crooked governor, and while there was focus on the election, it was integrated into the story arcs of the cases being prosecuted. Character-wise, we didn’t learn a lot about McCoy that we didn’t already know – the focus on the election was actually somewhat necessary in transitioning the character from EADA, which he’d been for 13-14 years, to DA.

I’d also argue that we’ve seen various levels of characterization throughout the years – the Ben Bratt years, especially seasons 7 and 8, were pretty heavy on personal stuff. Season 20 has been going that direction as well, but overall, they usually try to strike a balance. You can’t get that balance exactly right every year, especially with different writers coming and going, along with a revolving door cast of characters. I don’t see that as Dick Wolf changing his mind about anything, so much as I see it as the natural progression of the show over the course of 20 years.

Either way, I’m happy we’re getting four new episodes, if this turns out to be correct, regardless of whether they’re used as a boost to get to Season 21 (which I’d obviously prefer) or an end to the series (which would be sad, but hey, I’ve got 20 years of episodes to watch and re-watch!)

Perhaps not, but the price wouldn’t go to zero, or alternatively, NBCU (and USA) could make up some portion (perhaps a large portion) of that money repeating the 21st season’s episodes on USA or NBC the same way they do with L&O:CI. My point is that the alternate revenue streams would not be tremendously effected by a move to first run on cable.

And if the NBCU/Comcast deal is as close as has been reported (who knows), tiny things like the number of episodes of L&O ordered aren’t going to make any difference at all. The difference between zero episodes and 4 or 6 is insignificant on the NBCU corporate level.

Mel,
The numbers are out there if you dig for them — which anyone can do if they’re journalistically inclined. The problem is that some half-assed websites would rather wait for Nielsen to email them the ratings in the morning and then make semi-informed guesses and pass them off as somehow scientific. I would hope that this website would distinguish itself from the pack and do some actual research.

Cassie,
The reason NBC only ordered 4 episodes probably has more to do with the fact that the company’s up for sale and NBC wants to make its financial numbers as attractive as possible and drive up the book value of the company. One way you do that is by booking as much revenue as possible while limiting expenses. Ordering only as many episodes as you need until the company gets sold is one way to limit expenses. No doubt more episodes will be ordered (up to the usual 22-episode order) if sale negotiations drag on or if and when the sale to Comcast is finalized.

As far as “people will watch no matter what timeslot” I suppose that’s technically true (people can be as many as 2) but not true in the sense you’re presenting it. Law and Order essentially tied Supernanny in the demo last night and is pulling in almost a million fewer viewers than Dateline (which follows it). Even with the cast cuts the show has to be expensive and I can’t imagine

Anyway, I think the extra 4 episodes are either to have a goodbye arc or to prep the series for USA by somehow jettisoning McCoy and Van Buren (hence bringing the cost down to cable levels)

I think the show would do better if it replaced the current ADA, he couldn’t be more dull, with a healthy bit of annoying in the character. He certainly ain’t no Sam Waterston.

My Renew / Cancel Index prediction about L&O has always been about it’s return to NBC next season. It could certainly go to new episodes on USA (ala, L&O:CI) and almost none of your points would change:

- Ad revenue would be less, but likely appropriate for USA ratings levels.
- Future syndication revenue (for repeats) would presumably be the same.
- Foreign revenue would be little unchanged for the series as a whole
- Download and DVD revenues would be little changed for the series as a whole, while the newer episodes would suffer a bit
- 21st season, It wouldn’t be the 21st “broadcast” season, but I think the record books could handle it.

We take all the numbers into account. The most important ones for broadcast renewal are 18-49 ratings. The others are both less important for broadcast renewal and unlikely to differ substantially under a first run cable scenario.

As for numbers, if you think Nikki Finke landed some giant pile of money upfront for her site, please pass what you’re smoking. She likely received a small sum and an employment contract. I’m happy for her, but I stopped working for someone else 11 years ago, and don’t ever plan to start again.

We are merely speculating regarding the revenue and so forth that NBC gets from L&O.

OK, regarding Zucker, then Bill could use ‘the get out of the Dollhouse free’ card for why a show with good numbers was cancelled despite being green on the renew/cancel index.

But, Law & Order was airing before I was even born, so my guess is just a guess.

That said, I do hope L&O is renewed, and I hope they get back on track.

One man’s opinion, of course…

Happy Halloween!

Ratings alone don’t equal all the money a show represents. The equation is ad revenue+cable+syndication+foreign+downloads+dvd. And since NBC is a two-headed monster (network and studio), it has an interest in keeping a show on the air that is a perennial in its library. An episode of L&O made today will keep making money for NBC/Universal long after we’re all dead.
Not to mention, when your company’s in play, you want to be able to demonstrate to a potential buyer that you have long-term revenue-makers in your stable of products.
And Mel, in this case “ego” (namely Jeff Zucker’s) has worked against Law & Order. Zucker has had nothing to gain from keeping a show on that he cannot claim credit for. Quality being a subjective thing, numbers are the ONLY thing that has kept L & O on the air these last six years.

Bill, when you have a web site that calls itself “TV By The Numbers”, you should try to consider ALL the numbers, not just the ones that are dropped in your lap every morning by Nielsen. I know you’d like to sell your website for some big Nikki Finke numbers, but like Nikki Finke you’re gonna have to work your ass off to do it.

This is a show that is flexible also. They could recast it, and it would still function. That’s part of the reason for its longevity. If people scream loud enough, maybe Anthony Anderson and Jeremy Sisto would go away. I’m assuming those are the cops that some of you don’t like, no?

I think a much better logical case could be made for renewing L&O for a 21st season than any case that was presented in the Fox board room for bringing Dollhouse back for a second one.

I think you should give yourself one ‘Get out of the Dollhouse’ free card each season for when the networks do some damn thing that doesn’t make a bit of ratings sense for reasons we, as mere mortals unlike Mr. Bell above, cannot fathom.