Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.20 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.24 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.25 |
| Fringe | 0.60 |
| Bones (P) | 0.76 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.76 |
| Glee (P) | 0.89 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.93 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.11 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.15 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.29 |
| House | 1.49 |
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While a certain favorite commenter of ours may find it hard to believe, I had never heard of Joss Whedon before we started this site two years ago. He's shown he's got a sense of humor about himself, his shows and the entertainment business in general. That seems a healthy thing to have when your show (Dollhouse) is going to be canceled, particularly when he's got the talent to keep at it.
Dollhouse, 'Til Death and Brothers , all certain to be canceled, are off Fox's schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will gets its 13 episodes aired, as it seems Brothers will too. The situation with all the episodes of 'Til Death produced or ordered and not aired is so confusing, and not worth thinking about, I will let "Riff Rafferty" fill you in via comments if you care.
While I think the prospects are still positive for Fringe because it has done much better for Fox on Thursday's at 9 then they've done for awhile, there is at least some question about its future, so I will keep it in orange.
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for next few weeks because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox's overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox's average evens out post-baseball.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think I understand everything for Til Death now. Theres about 81 episodes total produced and FOX is at least planning to air all season 4 episodes by doubling up on the show in January. Brothers will finish out its season on December 27 and Dollhouse will end on January 22. Everything else is safe and should last until may. While Fringe is in orange, I still have a strong feeling FOX will keep it around for Season 3 and Lie to Me has yet to get a full season though it should soon. FOX has a lot of new and retruning midseason shows in place 24, American Idol, Kitchen Nightmares Human Target, Past Life, Glee (March), so they should easily have a packed schedule.
It seems Fox always has the most interesting least watched shows! Me wonders if V will take over that crown in a few weeks. Heres a show, that is broadcasting without a doubt SCIENCE FICTION ! Unlike Fast Forward who it seems is trying to stay away from being labeled a sci fi show.
While I’m not a fan of Dollhouse and I’m definitely not a Whedonite, I still feel the need to point out two things:
First, stating as if it’s an incontrovertible fact that Dollhouse will be cancelled (“That seems a healthy thing to have when your show (Dollhouse) is going to be canceled”) really seems ill-advised and a bit smug when you consider you said the same exact thing last time around and were wrong. It just seems the wrong tone to take. Pointing out that the numbers are cancellation worthy is one thing, but you then extrapolate from those numbers the conclusion that cancellation is the *only possible* outcome, and I don’t understand why you consistently frame your opinions in such terms. It is not “going to be” cancelled. It almost definitely will be cancelled, sure. But saying it’s “going to be” implies there is no flexibility whatsoever in the network decision-making process, and that theory has already been proven wrong. Or that you guys have industry contacts that are telling you cancellation is a done deal, which you don’t.
2. The constant Dollhouse/Whedon headlines are really starting to look like you guys are just trolling for hits. I understand this article is the renew/cancel index and it’s focused on Fox–but did Dollhouse have to be the show in the picture? Why not Brothers, or Fringe?
Mark, I see where you’re coming from in that they were wrong about season 2 of dollhouse, but with an index number as low as it is, theres no flexibility. The already cut costs for season 2, and I find it very hard to believe any network executive would put their job on the line to renew a show with these types of ratings. Therefore “going to be” is a fair remark to make.
Dollhouse is a show that has to pick up steam, unfortunately, it took 6 episodes for it to get moving. I have heard that is Fox’s fault but that delay for real development killed the show. No doubt it is imaginative and potentially moving in the direction of a Terminator post-apocalyptic world. Very interesting stuff but you can’t keep peoples attention for 6 episodes without some meat.
mark- When a network first says you will be on in November, then pulls you from said sweeps month, your days are numbered.
You know, I’ve always been positive Fringe is safe (even ask Dan!), I’m feeling less and less confident about Lie to Me. I still think it’s safe, but the lack of a back-order has me a bit antsy. If it gets the back 9, I’m sure it will be back next year.
Dan- Looks like FOX is ending up like you and I predicted this season!
mark, the fans of Brothers or Til Death that would go out of their way to read an internet post on them could fit in my living room, and I did headline Fringe two weeks ago, even though I don’t think it will be canceled. And I still don’t! After Brothers, Til Death and DH gone, it will have to be the headline again until new shows appear.
And everything we do is “trolling for hits” if you consider writing what people want to read “trolling for hits”.
And, in case you hadn’t noticed, these are predictions!
I still have faith!
Do you know what happened twenty years ago today?! Let me tell you: the sixth episode of Baywatch aired! Imagine, if you will, that TvbytheNumbers existed then! Imagine, if you will, that the Renew/Cancel Index existed! Imagine, if you will, that you were actually on the Internet back then!
I do not think it is a stretch to imagine that, were this all to have happened, Baywatch would’ve been one of the NBC shows that Billbert was certain would be cancelled! Billbert would’ve declared the show dead multiple times already! Billbert would’ve continued to have declared the show dead for another sixteen episodes! In fact, Billbert might’ve used the eventual cancellation of Baywatch by NBC as a punchline for the next year or so!
Do you know what happened then, dear gentle readers?! The show returned! The show was saved! Saved by a powerful force known as syndication! And then the show ran for another 220 episodes! Plus a spinoff that ran for 2 years! Plus a reunion movie! And for much of the nineties, it was the most popular show on TV in the world!!!!!
So, people who’ve sent peanuts and Tabasco sauce and (in my case) Barbie dolls in to the networks, remember: you DO matter! You can get the show moved to a smaller network like the CW, like Sabrina the Teenage Witch, Clueless, The Hughleys, Grounded for Life, The PJs, or another half-dozen shows that were moved to the UPN or the WB in their heyday! You can get your show a direct-to-DVD movie like Dead Like Me or Futurama! You can get your show a last minute pickup like Jericho! You can get your show moved to cable! Don’t give up the faith, people, even when Billbert says you should!
Dollhouse forever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was on the Internet in 1989! I would access it via a service called PORTAL through a networking company called TELENET and read the USENet news groups.
I did not predict doom for Baywatch, but…I hardly watched any TV back then.
Is there a country on this planet that we are not aware of that actually enjoys Til Death? Is it one of those shows that is more appreciated in lands other than the one it comes from? Perhaps their entire non-English speaking populace rolls in laughter at the hysterical antics of Brad Garrett and wonder where his brother Raymond is?
It’s settled in my mind that Dollhouse is going to end after these 13 episodes, but I will be so disappointed if Fringe doesn’t get to season 3. It’s picked up amazingly this season and while its not my favourite show ever I really enjoy it and be sad if it ends stupidly after a second season. It has potential that some shows don’t to last longer than that.
To put this post in perspective, as I think its needed always with Dollhouse comments now – I’m a Whedonite through and through.
Do we know which network plans to buy Til Death reruns for syndication or cable? Even a single station at a no cash barter? Why does Sony think people will want it for any reason?
Three words: According to Jim.
Consult your local program guide.
Lie to me is green? What the crap?
It has a 0.76, which is similar to what Mercy has on NBC’s chart, and you have it as certain to be cancelled.
I understand that baseball has thrown things off a bit, but I think you should have it in orange, especially considering that it follows House.
Ya know, some shows DO better overseas. I don’t have think far to remember David Hasslehof and the all-but-America enjoyment of him.
Soccer is a similar thing; it’s hard to tell what people will like. And that’s NOWHERE more true than on TV.
I wonder what country Joss is writing for? :>
There’s a microscopically slim chance Dollhouse will be renewed: essentially if somehow it turns the numbers around so the 13th episode goes out on a 2.0, then I don’t think any Fox exec is going to care that it was doing badly in October.
The real problem is not that Dollhouse is doing badly now, it’s that because it’s doing badly now, it’s highly improbable that it will do well in the future. The fact Fox has made it clear they will show the entire thing means it can turn things around.
The reality is that it probably will not. But that doesn’t mean the logic “Any network executive that renews the show when the fourth episode got a 0.8″ holds.
Who the hell is Billbert?
I’m still praying for Fox to let Joss resurrect Firefly as a consolation prize for cancelling Dollhouse. Delusionland: the next most popular vacation resort after Denial! XD
The problem (not necessarily *your* problem, but it is a problem) is that while this post might be predictive, the use of flat declarative statements in it will no doubt now get echoed on Twitter and other places by people not understanding that when TVbytheNumbers says Dollhouse will be canceled, it’s not the same thing as if FOX has announced it’s being canceled.
johnthemon, baseball has thrown things off more than “a bit” Fox’s 18-49 average is now a 3.7. Before baseball started it was a 2.9.
With a 2.9 Fox average, Lie To Me’s Index is a 0.97.
As my mother would say, Hush up now.
People keep saying this site was proven wrong about Dollhouse getting renewed.
No, THE FOX NETWORK was proven wrong, and they admitted that when they pulled it from their sweeps schedule.
I mean, remember how the Jericho fans crowed out in victory, when it was brought back from the grave?
Speaking of humor, finish this sentence for me, Dollhousers–’He who laughs last–’