Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.41 |
| Hank | 0.57 |
| Eastwick | 0.68 |
| the forgotten | 0.69 |
| The Middle | 0.73 |
| Castle (P) | 0.77 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.06 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.09 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.17 |
| Modern Family | 1.23 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.29 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.59 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.87 |
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Fans of Hank, Eastwick and the forgotten, which are all certain to be canceled because of their woeful ratings, can be happy that the accountants are now in control of the broadcast networks, and instead of removing poor performers from the schedule early they're letting them finish airing most or all of the 13 episodes of each that were ordered.
Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don't expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. Could ABC keep it longer to produce even more episodes regardless of the ratings? It's not 100% out of the question, but it's a real longshot.
Against lots of CBS and a few CW repeats last week, some individual ABC shows had ratings upticks that gave the craziest of their fans some false hopes. Don't be fooled, what really matters for renewal or cancellation is how they do vs. their ABC stablemates. It's a bit like the old joke about two guys with a bear chasing them. You don't need to out run the bear to survive, just the other guy.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
hmmmm Castle is surviving and thats a good thing.
I’m still on the record that the forgotten is a show with an excellent premise. The acting in the first few episodes seemed somewhat rigid early on, but the last couple of episodes the actors and actresses have done much better selling the scenes emotionally. I hope that if the show is cancelled which seems almost certain, that they let the series somewhat wrap up as we are just now learning more information about Alex Donovan and the pain he has went through in losing his child. Here is hoping that his child is found at the series end.
This will be the 2nd ABC series in a row that was my favorite (Life on Mars was excellent I thought) that is cancelled too soon in my book.
Like I said before, Hank, The Forgotten, and Eastwick arent doing that bad that they wouldnt be shown all their episodes. Plus ABC is giving Eastwick better promotion lately. It may have a tiny chance of getting more episodes.
I think V will premiere big. Ive seen so much promotion from ABC and its like all over the internet. I dont see how it cant get at least a 4.0.
Rob, yes, Eastwick has a tiny chance of getting more episodes, and according to quantum mechanics, I have a tiny chance of being teleported to Jupiter. I wouldn’t count on either happening.
I dunno Rob, as alluded to by Bill the accountants are calling the shots and that is the reason they are showing most of the episodes of these three.
Michael, Im not counting on it. I just said tiny chance. If V does premiere big, there is even more of a chance of it cancelling. If V ends up bombing which i highly doubt, it has more of a chance. Plus theres no hope that any midseason replacement would do better.
Rob, Eastwick’s last episode got a 1.8- I’m sure that there’s SOME midseason replacement that could do better.
Michael, theres no guarantee. Is ABC just gonna keep cancelling shows in that timeslot just because they cant get above 2.0? They will lose a lot of their audience who wont even bother to try any of their new shows if they are just gonna cancel.
I can see ABC keeping Castle for another year. I don’t have faith that ABC’s mid-season will blow the ratings out of the water. However, if it doesn’t improve, I can see Season 3 being its last (unless their 10p ratings mirror this year’s as well).
Does anyone know if V is going to premire good tonight?
Eastwick, The Forgotten and Hank will all finish in December, should none of them be pulled. My best guess is that Eastwick finishes all 13 episodes, Forgotten gets pulled mid december and Hank gets pulled mid november-mid december. Ugly Betty and Lost will both end in May. The Middle and Castle are 50/50 for surviving into 2010-2011. Everything else is safe.
The Forgotten is actually getting decent but I’d rather ABC save Castle.
ugly betty is getting so good, they should just move it to tuesday or wednesday…
I still can’t see ABC leaving UB on Fridays, even if it is just to get enough episodes for syndication. It’s ratings are atrocious, and it’s down 50% from last year.
I guess I am in the minority bur Cougartown is cringeworthy. Courtney Cox overdoes it in every scene which is understandable when trying to compensate for material that is not funny.
I’m really impressed with The Middle. While the ratings aren’t spectacular, you have to take its awful lead-in into consideration. I hope ABC decides to stick with it for another season, but decision time is a long winter away!
Castle needs to just make it to season 3 and it will get renewed every year until it tires out as syndication is starting to come into play now.
Cougar Town is feeding off of Modern Family so that show should not be making it to season 3.
The Forgotten is the one show that needs to find a better timeslot b/c if this show was on CBS then it would clearly be getting better ratings. Its a show with a limited fan base but it still has room to grow just like Castle has in a short period of time.
Doug, ABC will definitely leave Betty on the schedule for the remainder of this season. I agree that having it there next season is a huge longshot.
What? “The Forgotten” has the best time slot ABC could have given it. “Without a Trace’s” time slot last season and one of the select few time slots where CBS doesn’t air a procedural.
The show isn’t an outright disaster, but it does need to show some improvement (or at least not lose the audience it has now when “Dancing with the Stars” wraps on November 24). Certainly, it needs creative improvement. The women on the show are all wallpaper.
ABC seems to have the hugest gap between the shows actually doing well and shows failing in the index. CBS and FOX have meandering shows like Bones or The Good Wife, but with ABC there is nothing between decent B&S and horrible Castle.