Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.72 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.77 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.77 |
| Community | 0.87 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.97 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 1.01 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.21 |
| The Office (P) | 1.62 |
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There has been a surprising amount of 'net chatter in the past week about a rumor claiming NBC told the writers of Heroes to prepare for the end of the show. I have no way of judging the truthfulness of that, and there may be some other (unknown to me) factor that could take the show off the air. However, looking at the ratings, while the show is way down from its earlier years, considering that its on NBC, Heroes is far from being dead. It's average, and networks don't typically cancel their average shows, particularly ones that air at 8pm.
I am a stubborn man, but I'd like to think not infinitely so. If the 3 CBS scripted shows can survive on Friday's with their ratings, there's a chance that Law & Order can too. This has nothing to do with the check from Dick Wolf that arrived yesterday.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.
Trauma didn't receive an order for its "back 9" episodes, so it'll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.
Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I'm not including it.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Clearly the ratings suggest SVU will be back, but does that mean next summer we’ll get a fresh contract dispute for the leads?
Jay Leno may have given NBC a hint:
Leno: If asked, I’d go back ‘Tonight’
Jay Leno says he would return to the “Tonight Show” time slot if the NBC suits asked.
“If that’s what they wanted to do, sure,” he told Broadcasting and Cable magazine. “That would be fine if they wanted to.”
NBC decided five years ago to replace Leno with Conan O’Brien on “Tonight.” Once that change neared, NBC had to deal with the risk of losing Leno – who was No. 1 in late night for most of his 17-year-run there – to another network. Instead, he’s hosting a weeknight 10 p.m. comedy show, which is drawing about 6 million viewers a night.
“Would I have preferred to stay at 11:30? Yeah, sure. I would have preferred that,” Leno told the magazine. “I think it’s too soon to say whether I regret anything or not.”
Leno said he’s in for the long haul at 10 p.m.
“I like this challenge of 10 o’clock,” he said. “Sometimes going against insurmountable odds and making a little progress is maybe more satisfying than going into a situation where you’re going to win no matter what.”
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv/2009/11/03/2009-11-03_innertube_jay_leno_says_if_asked_hed_go_back_tonight.html#ixzz0VpUKrIGz
I have to point out, Heroes’s ratings have been UP each week for teh past 3-4 weeks. The show is getting back to it’s best, and people are obviously catching on again.
Yes, Heroes did go down a wrong path, so to speak and lost its touch in season 2-3. Season 4 however, is great right now. I hope it continues to do better & better.
Chuck Tranberg, old news, plus is the concept that Leno would want to go back to 11:30 even news at all?
If Heroes comes back next year, expect it to look quite different. Budget cuts across the board. While its average shows it is possibly safe, there’s no way they can justify the cost for their weekly ratings. Already they are shedding some cast. Who knows, maybe they can split the cast into different volumes, and interweave the story-lines. That would keep actors employed, but save money. HIGHLY doubt that will happen. For all purposes, it may end up like Earl, where the producers just won’t justify cutting costs, so they just end the show.
Mercy will not get a second season.
It depresses me that it is just about a sure thing Parks will be back next year. I know people say it’s so much better than last year; but to me that’s kind of like saying your trash can doesn’t smell as bad as last week’s trash can. Still doesn’t smell like roses, people.
I really think community may be one and done. If Parks comes back next year, Community may be moved to let a new show come about. Or get a mid-season slot a la Chuck. Hope it survives, cause I love it.
L&O will be back next year. Bet on it.
NBC – AXE THE JAY LENO SHOW, U HAD BETTER RATINGS WITH ER. AND MANY OTHER SHOWS
Sorry Robert missed your post from yesterday.
I for one hope that this is Heroes final season.
Don’t get me wrong, I love the show, but I think we need a definitive end, and I’d like it to be when the show is still good. I don’t want to see it jump the shark and live on for years and years getting worse and worse. This season is the best since the first, and I think it will be a good note to go out on.
The ratings suggest that NBC may want to keep it yet another year, but I’m hoping they play it safe and end Heroes before it turns into a turd. Just my opinion.
About Mercy, I still think it’s a little early to say it for sure won’t be back next season. A lot can change by May.
Why is Mercy likely to be cancelled? Park & Rec got 0.77 as well, yet you have it as in danger?
@Ryan: ER cost FAR to much, and with those ratings and demos, it wasn’t worth keeping, especially in these times.
@John: As for Mercy and Parks & Rec getting 0.77, re-read the third paragraph:
“The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.”
@Anthony and Mark: Sorry! I just skipped that whole paragraph. D: I like Mercy, it’s better than Greys, and as Greys had the right lead-in for its first season, it was able to gain a following. NBC, however, haven’t really good many good lead-ins, and that’s letting the show die. However, NBC are apparently intrigued by the next few episodes, and its lost its ‘soapy’ feeling, and is focusing on the patients more.
*Bill.
I thought Heroes hit the point of no return but I gotta admit that last night’s episode gave me hope for the first time in a very long time.
Masi Oka was FANTASTIC last night and the whole future Hiro thing was hysterical.
I am already WAY too attached to Parks and Rec to be comfortable with those numbers. I haven’t been this worried about a cancellation since The Office was on the bubble back in spring of 2005.
Now if it was significantly ahead of Community I would feel better, but being neck and neck (and even dropping last week) freaks me out. At least theworst case scenario is the full second season pick up.
They should cancel NBC.
Season 4 of Heroes is “great” for certainly definitions of “great”, including “I have the long-time memory of a goldfish”.
People actually tuned in to watch that retcon-fest? I’m amazed.
I agree with JaySin420
Heroes has gotten better this season but it needs to keep it up and make up for the last 2 seasons
@Jaysin420, I agree. I think the worst part about season 3 was that there was little to no humor. Well, except for “Cake?” that is.