Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.60 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.82 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.85 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.94 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.94 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.97 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.35 |
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With Melrose Place the only show CW certain to be canceled, just like last season with Privileged I'm certain that there are entertainment bloggers out there that will raise the (false) hopes of fans (and their pageviews) with ridiculous "There's Hope For Melrose Place!" stories.
I'm not sure if those stories are driven by the CW's PR prowess or just attempts to draw pageviews, but who do you think will be first?
My guess rhymes with "Saucy-Fellow".
Smallville fans wary of the motives of CW Chief Dawn Ostroff should be sleeping easily. With the relatively good ratings its getting on Friday (relatively better for its network than any other Friday scripted show on any network), she's not going to be able to cancel it. Of course, if the producers or stars don't want to continue that's another story.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
Note: A few CW scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I noticed on EW.com that Melrose hired Nick Zano, and apparently the network is planning to retool the show into something more ‘fun, frothy’ and all that jibberish.
I wonder if the retool + Heather’s upcoming appearance stabilize ratings…will the CW decide to give the show another chance next year?
Personally I can’t see them attracting many more new eyeballs, but if CW’s development slate looks soft they *might* just give the show a chance….IMO, of course
(for the record, I’ve never watched the show…lol)
Anonymous, “stabilized ratings” = canceled. But if Heather can increase the ratings by ~25% Bill might have to eat some crow.
Basically every renewed drama from last season should survive into 2010-2011, even Smallville. If the veteran continues to hold up in the slot, I dont see why the show cant get a tenth year. Melrose Place is highly likely to be axed despite the fact that its a remake. All other new reality shows and Life UnXpected will probably be axed by May.
It seems CW really wants to save Melrose Place at any cost, its possible the series may get more episodes.
MP will only survive if they give up next year. As it stands, they have one open spot (Wed at 9), and then the Melrose spot. I highly doubt they will let any mid-season show return for a second season, so they really have only 2 spots. If they don’t have TWO new shows for the season (which would be pathetic), then MP will be back.
Heather could get this thing rolling again.
IM PERSONALLY INVESTED IN THIS SERIES AND AM SERIOUSLY HOPING THAT THE RETURN OF HEATHER LOCKLEAR WILL SAVE THE SHOW. FINGERS CROSSED MP FANS..
nkinsey – If anything (and Melrose Place is kept) then the only slot available will be post ANTM at 9. That slot could go to a new drama or a reality model competition. Either way whichever show airs their probably wont do well. If CW axes Melrose they could air a new drama post 90210 and a new reality series post ANTM. They probably should have aired another reality type show post ANTM this season so if it did badly at least its cheaper to air.
I’m glad I stopped watching a few episodes back. I don’t want a “fun/frothy” show. I want sinister, that’s why I liked Violet (Ashlee Simpson) and now they’re letting her go.
Are there really over 100,000 hardcore Heather Locklear fans that have been refusing to watch until she appears?
Chuck, Im sure there are more than 100,000 Heather Locklear fans that wont watch the show until November 17th.
And why would u include repeats of 90210 and Melrose Place? No wonder why they are so low! Thats pretty dumb. Repeats dont determine if a show will get renewed.
melrose place has biggest W18-34 ratings than smallville and for CW its all about w18-34!so if will renew smallville they could definetely renew melrose place!dawn ostroff will fight a lot before cancelation!! moreover i expect everything afte
r the last years dollhouse renewal!
i never watched the original melrose but this is very good!especially ella sims(aka katie cassidy)!!!i love her role!
SMALLVILLE = Awesome! and Vampire Diaries is awesome, CW’s best shows…lol
As a 90′s Melrose Place fan, I feel this series lacks the power and punch of the original, there are a few good story lines worth keeping. Both Sidney and Michael could have been a major characters to build the first year on. Ashley had Sydney potential and Ella Sims lacked any kind of appeal or power. The use of the original characters on a one episode basis was a waste of good talent as their bad-ass characters have already been developed. The addition of Heather, who I love more than life itself, may be coming in a bit too late to salvage the show.
why is Vampire Diaris the only show above the average? I imagine ANTM is also above the average, but does Vampire really throw the grade curve that much?
johnthemon, Vampire Diaries 1.62 18-49 ratings average is 38% above the #2 scripted show for the CW, and that’s with one VD repeat in the mix. Yes, it skews the average that much. ANTM does as well, but I don’t have its Live+SD average calculated.
How is Smallville on Fridays, Its beating shows that air mid-week, and could beat probably the rest if aired on somewhere between Monday & Thursday
Smallville, as a veteran is doing pretty good for CW on Fridays. Its better than Everybody Hates Chris and The Game from last season and if it continues to hold up, it will likely get a tenth season.
I will reserve judgement on MP until after “Special Guest Star” Heather Locklear comes on. With at least four big hits that I can recall, she is a true TV star with a big following. Plus, the series is already superior in quality compared to 9021b0ring. Also, it should help that they are dumping Ashley whatever all of her names are.
Happy that Smallville 10 is looking good!!!