Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL (P)||0.49*|
|Melrose Place (P)||0.60|
|Smallville (F), (P)||0.85|
|One Tree Hill (P)||0.94|
|Gossip Girl (P)||0.94|
|Supernatural (S), (P)||0.97|
|Vampire Diaries (P)||1.35|
With Melrose Place the only show CW certain to be canceled, just like last season with Privileged I'm certain that there are entertainment bloggers out there that will raise the (false) hopes of fans (and their pageviews) with ridiculous "There's Hope For Melrose Place!" stories.
I'm not sure if those stories are driven by the CW's PR prowess or just attempts to draw pageviews, but who do you think will be first?
My guess rhymes with "Saucy-Fellow".
Smallville fans wary of the motives of CW Chief Dawn Ostroff should be sleeping easily. With the relatively good ratings its getting on Friday (relatively better for its network than any other Friday scripted show on any network), she's not going to be able to cancel it. Of course, if the producers or stars don't want to continue that's another story.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
Note: A few CW scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.