Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 1, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.61 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.64 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.67 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.97 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.05 |
| The Mentalist | 1.07 |
| CSI (P) | 1.09 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.13 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.14 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.21 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.38 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.40 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.50 |
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Neither Three Rivers nor Cold Case will be back next season. They will both be canceled by the end of the year, but while Cold Case will likely air a full 22 episode season, the most Three Rivers will get will be the 13 episodes already ordered, and they'll be lucky to get all of those. Three Rivers fans who'll claim "but you said it would be off the air by now!", can thank the accountants.
The Good Wife is still on the borderline. Its Index is depressed slightly because of last week's repeat, see below.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
Numb3rs ratings are again close enough to those of Medium and Ghost Whisperer to put its future in less doubt. Last season Numb3rs was renewed with a gap between its Index and that of Ghost Whisperer of 0.10. At that gap or less, I figure the show is safe, above that gap there's a risk it gets canceled, but I acknowledge there is some risk that the rest of CBS schedule is doing well enough that Numb3rs could get canceled just to open a slot for a new show.
11/7 Update: The episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
Note: About half of the CBS scripted shows were in repeats last week, which depresses their Indexes vs. those that were not. In the short run, it causes some tricky comparisons, in the long run it pretty much evens out.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Three Rivers should have been axed already but why it hasnt remains a mystery. Maybe Alex O’Loughlin and Moonlight may have something to do with it. Its the final season for Cold Case, the veteran will end in May. The Good Wife is 50/50 but will likely be axed by May. Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are only doing OK but both should air the full season. Who knows what CBS will do with the two for 2010-2011. Everything else is safe, even likely Numb3rs.
5506-You realize that’ll be on ABC, right?
Look at my previous Comment saying “Wrong Area”
Good thing they cancelled The Unit.
Goodness sake. Last year when they announced Three Rivers I knew THEN it wouldn’t last. What a waste that was.
I guess the “accountants” theory makes sense for CBS. I bet around 8 Three Rivers episodes will air and then it will be pulled (should it not be pulled earlier than November 22). Every other series currently airing on CBS should air all episodes for the season.
Thanks for reminding me tough.
Accidentally On Purpose Hasn’t Evan Been Picked Up For More Episodes Yet, so how can you say that it’s likey to come back next season when the show hasn’t evan been renewed for a back 9 order yet? And Besides, it’s the weakest link in monday night and looses HIMYM Audience about each night.
Three Rivers is excellent show. I wished it wont be canceled. But CBS sucks! Every other network with such ratings definitly would keep show.
@John,
The only broadcast network that would keep a non-Friday show with a 1.7 in the demo is The CW. ABC, FOX, and NBC would all cancel it.
R.J. – I forgot about Accidentally but its likely to get additional episodes and then Rules will return to the slot. CBS should have treated Rules better. Maybe if Old Christine ends after this year, Rules could get the Wednesday slot, should it be renewed.
Three Rivers is ruining CBS’ Sunday average and I think it’s hurting them for their weekly average. Nina must love Alex to keep on airing it or maybe they’re afraid that the loony fans will send organs to the CBS Offices, human or animal.
If I was CBS, I would pull it now, move Cold Case to 9pm and out NCIS or Mentalist repeats at 10pm.
Miami Trauma is not ready to air yet but Flashpoint and The Bridge are, what is keeping them from replacing them and saving them from defeat of November Sweeps.
what do you have against the good wife…it is a top 20 show.
mark-allen, on what list? The meaningless average viewership list? Not adults 18-49 ratings. It’s average is a 2.77, below CBS’ average of a 3.2 rating. It’s on the bubble.
@mark-allen, I don’t think Bill and Robert have anything against The Good Wife, but its ratings are a little soft. They aren’t bad, and the show would be completely safe on any other network, but for CBS they’re a little low.
Another answer to The Difference Between Three Rivers & Cold Case question, Bill? About one million viewers.
I still think Cold Case has a lot of life left. In my opinion, it’s way better than any L&O or CSI series that’s on the air.
They need to see if it would improve in its old timeslot behind TAR instead of putting TR there.
Love Three Rivers
The 18-49 demo for Old Christine and Gary have been pretty low considering the ‘norm’ but it is performing extremely well against its competition – usually first or second in both total viewers and the 18-49 demo.
I think CBS is probably pretty satisfied with their performances. If it was getting these numbers on, let’s say, Monday night, than there is no way that they are sticking around, but the fact that they are doing it in a fairly new time-slot and coming very close to winning the time period can’t make them feel to bad!
I don’t see how CBS will keep Gary Unmarried and Old Christine.
First of all, they didn’t launch any new comedies on Wednesday. Gary and Christine aren’t establishing anything.
Second, ABC’s Wednesday Comedy Block is doing well, and that’s direct competition. I think CBS will let them run the season, and then can them. What else can they reasonably do?
^Actually, the fact that the CBS comedies are beating the 8pm ABC comedies is a vote in their favor.
CBS is really keen on having a second comedy block and have been willing to put up with the low ratings on Wednesday to keep that dream alive. Will they give up after this season? Maybe. But I think it’s just as likely they keep them.